From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China-India, China-US, Europe, Georgia, Libya, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Sudan, US, US-India, US-Israel-Iran, US-Japan, US-Ukraine
China – India
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) On 10 January 2025, reports emerged that China had barred Chinese employees from travelling to Foxconn’s iPhone factories in India, while those already stationed there were being recalled. Additionally, shipments of specialised manufacturing equipment for making iPhones bound for India were halted, with Chinese authorities refusing to approve their export. These restrictions on Chinese manpower and equipment exports were designed to hinder Apple’s plan to manufacture the latest iPhone 17 in India and launch it there in 2025. By disrupting the supply chain, China aims to pressure Apple to reconsider its gradual transfer of operations away from China, particularly to India. These actions reflect Beijing’s growing concern over New Delhi’s potential to emerge as a competitive manufacturing powerhouse for Western multinationals, offering a glimpse into China’s evolving export denial strategy against New Delhi. These actions pose a significant national security threat to India and its economy. Notably, China is pursuing this denial strategy amid an apparent rapprochement between the two states, highlighting its underlying malevolent intentions. – China’s export denial strategy against India: A national security challenge
China – US
(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) The appointment of Marco Rubio as the new United States Secretary of State has added a new layer of complexity to China-US relations. Rubio is well-known for his strong views vis-à-vis China during his tenure as a US senator. On many occasions, he severely criticised China’s human rights situation, economic policies and its behaviour in international affairs. Within China, Rubio is particularly disliked and referred to as the “anti-China pioneer”. He has been included in China’s sanctions list twice, and the sanctions have not been lifted to date. Ever since his inauguration as the US Secretary of State, questions have been doing rounds within Chinese strategic circles—will China now consider lifting its sanctions on Rubio to repair Sino-US relations? Since President Trump hinted at visiting China soon, will Rubio be accompanying him? Will his status as US Secretary of State exempt him from sanctions? Will the issue become an obstacle in Trump’s visit, causing further tension in China-US relations? – China’s Rubio dilemma
Europe
(Chaitanya Giri – Observer Research Foundation) As Europe grapples with an existential crisis on multiple fronts, it also stands at risk of losing its autonomy and competitiveness in the space sector. – Space geopolitics: Europe’s call for autonomy
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian government, led by the Georgian Dream party, is implementing stringent new media censoring laws that ban foreign financing and introduce regulations for journalistic ethics. Critics fear Georgia’s hard-won free media is endangered as these moves signal the erosion of democratic values and the country’s growing isolation from the West. The Georgian government is intensifying its campaign against Western involvement, particularly targeting organizations like USAID. Accusations of foreign interference have been used to discredit Western donors and institutions, with Georgian officials claiming such influence has led to instability in the country. – Georgian Government is Tightening Legislation, Jeopardizing Free Media and Human Rights – Jamestown
Libya
(Chatham House) Since the 2011 Libyan revolution, the country has endured waves of conflict. As an integral linkage between Africa and Europe, international media highlights a growing migrant crisis through Libya – attributed to a human smuggling and trafficking sector regulated by various local actors. Tim Eaton and Lubna Yousef discuss their latest research on how transnational human smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya through a systems analysis of three key transit cities – Kufra, Sebha and Zawiya. Using this approach, their research examines the roles played by conflict and social dynamics in the expansion of human smuggling and trafficking – thus helping uncover critical gaps in policies aimed at addressing the rapid rise of migration. – Africa Aware: How transnational human smuggling fuels conflict in Libya | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Yurri Clavilier, Michael Gjerstad – IISS) While 2024 was a difficult year for Ukraine on the battlefield, its armed forces have managed to limit Russian territorial advances and inflict significant losses. These outcomes, achieved despite Ukraine’s acute shortage of ammunition in the first half of 2024 and manpower difficulties, show that Russia’s successes on the battlefield are certainly not decisive. – Combat losses and manpower challenges underscore the importance of ‘mass’ in Ukraine
(Tamerlan Vahabov – The Jamestown Foundation) As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, the Ukrainian government faces the challenge of boosting its troubled defense procurement and defense industry to lessen dependence on outside assistance and meet the country’s growing defense needs. Tensions reportedly rose between the director of the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and the Minister of Defense when it was revealed that Ukrainian-made 120 mm Soviet caliber mines supplied to the frontline were defective. Lack of sufficient financing, problems with Ukrainian-made ammunition quality, lack of critical components, and the internal standoff within the defense sector create serious risks to Ukraine’s war efforts against Russia. – Ukrainian Defense Industry at Risk of Disarray – Jamestown
(Caitlin Welsh, Emma Dodd – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s agriculture sector precipitated a substantial decrease in Ukraine’s harvested land area. While the sector is adapting, reduced farming and export capacity in Ukraine has realigned global agricultural trade in Russia’s favor. – Ukraine’s Decreased Production Creates Opportunities for Russia
Sudan
(Samir Bhattacharya, Kelvin Benny – Observer Research Foundation) In 2024, United States economists Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson were honoured for their research work on how institutions shape the prosperity of a nation. Their work explored the impact of colonialism on institutional quality and post-colonial development across countries. Drawing on decades of economic analysis, these three economists argued that institutions—rather than culture, natural resources, or geography—are the key factors that explain why some nations thrive while others struggle. Sudan serves as a prime example of how the strength or weakness of its institutions determines the fate of a nation. – Sudan’s struggles: A history of divided and weak institutions
US
(Zuzanna Gwadera – IISS) The United States has relaxed its Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) implementation guidelines, with implications for the broader non-proliferation norm. – The US relaxes its missile-transfer policy
(Nina M. Armagno, Jane Harman, Esther D. Brimmer – Council on Foreign Relations) It is impossible to overstate the importance of space to the United States. For Americans, modern life depends on information from the thousands of satellites orbiting the globe, allowing people to do everything from navigating their cars by GPS to growing crops and managing inventory. Satellites are also essential to U.S. national security, enabling the United States to communicate with its military forces, gather intelligence, warn of a potential nuclear attack, and more. Space is a strategic vulnerability. The United States has more strategic assets in space than any other country. Almost as important, dynamic American companies—particularly SpaceX—have revolutionized space, placing in orbit thousands of commercial satellites on which the U.S. economy increasingly depends. But other countries are following suit. China in particular is on track to have thousands of its own satellites in orbit in the not-too-distant future. – Securing Space A Plan for U.S. Action
US – India
(Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States this week highlights the priority that Washington attaches to its relationship with India. The visit may help resolve immediate tensions, but is likely to do little to resolve mismatched expectations. Modi will be the fourth foreign leader to visit President Donald Trump during his second term, following the Israeli and Japanese prime ministers and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Though the visit in part reflects a continuity of US policy and a strong bipartisan consensus on engaging India, Trump views the relationship through a different prism. – Modi’s Washington visit highlights India’s importance to the US, but will not resolve long-term challenges | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Israel – Iran
(The Soufan Center) Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington last week demonstrated U.S.-Israeli alignment that Iran be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon but exposed differing approaches and timetables. During Netanyahu’s week-long stay, President Trump emphasized that his administration would prioritize an effort to negotiate a new and comprehensive agreement with Iran covering regional issues as well as Iran’s nuclear program. Trump signaled he would support Israeli and/or U.S. military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks fail or Iran is assessed as driving toward producing a nuclear weapon. To gain leverage on Iran, the Trump administration formally restored the sanctions-centric “maximum pressure” Iran policy that was a hallmark of Trump’s first term. – Trump and Netanyahu Share Goals but Differ on Approach Toward Iran – The Soufan Center
US – Japan
(Sheila A. Smith – Council on Foreign Relations) On Friday, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and President Donald Trump sat down for the first time to discuss the U.S.-Japan alliance. Ishiba was the second foreign leader to come to Washington, D.C. to meet the president. The press conference suggested a good rapport between the prime minister and the president, but while allied reassurances were generously proffered, the partnership has new priorities. – The Ishiba-Trump Era | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Ukraine
(Daniel F. Runde, Elizabeth Hoffman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) As the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fast approaches, it is time to consider the impact that a sixth U.S. supplemental aid package for Ukraine could have on forging a lasting and mutually acceptable peace agreement. President Trump has long pledged to find a path toward peace, although the contours of a ceasefire remain unclear. – Is It Time for Another Supplemental for Ukraine?
