The Dalai Lama’s July 2025 declaration that his reincarnation will be recognised solely by his private office has renewed a fundamental dispute over religious succession and self-determination. The issue is whether the religious community itself governs succession or whether the Chinese state absorbs it into its apparatus. With two rival 15th Dalai Lamas now likely — one recognised by the Gaden Phodrang Trust outside China and one produced by Beijing’s state machinery — the succession will test whether political power can override a religious community’s authority. The consequences will reach well beyond Tibet into Ladakh, Bhutan, Nepal, Mongolia and territory administered by India and claimed by China.
By East Asia Forum – Why China cannot choose the next Dalai Lama
