Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2026

(Institute for the Study of War)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly blamed the United States on February 9 for the lack of progress in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand for effective control over Ukraine’s post-war government and the size and composition of its military.
Russian State Duma deputies are explicitly demanding that the United States concede to all Russian demands.
Russian forces are likely falsely claiming that Ukrainian forces are conducting a “counteroffensive” near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border to rectify earlier false reports about alleged Russian advances in the area.
Russian and Ukrainian sources recently reported that Russian forces have increased the range of their guided glide bombs to 200 kilometers, but this is not a new Russian innovation.
India will reportedly dramatically decrease or halt its direct and indirect purchases of Russian oil.
The United States seized another Russian shadow fleet oil tanker.
Likely Belarusian balloons violated Polish airspace on the night of February 8 to 9.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2026 | ISW

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