(Institute for the Study of War)
Iran’s Efforts to Deter a US Attack: Iranian regime officials have continued to observe and respond to ongoing discussions in Western media about US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East, likely as part of its effort to try to deter the United States from attacking Iran. Iranian officials are also continuing to discuss the possibility of US and Iranian strikes with other regional countries, likely as part of a diplomatic effort to avoid a US strike.
Iranian Missile Program: The Gulf states have reportedly warned the United States that Iran’s missile program could cause significant damage to US interests in the region, according to two Western officials speaking to Washington Post.
Syrian Government-SDF Agreement: The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)’s January 30 agreement takes steps to satisfy key US objectives in Syria. The Syrian government and SDF took steps to implement the January 30 agreement on February 1 and began coordinating transfers of control and deconfliction.
Internal SDF Deliberations: SDF leadership may have convinced the Women’s Protection Unit (YPJ) to comply with the January 30 agreement even though the agreement functionally eliminates the YPJ in its current form. There appears to be some confusion or disagreement over whether the YPJ will integrate into Syrian security forces, and the YPJ could reverse its position in the coming days, however. There are other indications that senior SDF leadership may be convincing more hardline pro-SDF entities to moderate their positions.
SDF Leadership Nominations: The SDF’s February 1 nominees for key posts in the Syrian government are close allies of SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi and have experience collaborating with US forces.
