The Iranian Regime’s Securitization: The regime will likely tighten security around possible upcoming protest dates due to its fears of renewed unrest. It remains unclear whether the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around February 17 and Nowruz or sustain its current securitization for more than two months. Prolonged securitization would likely severely strain Iran’s economy and could risk exhausting security forces.
Anti-Regime Kurdish Militant Group Activity: The Iranian regime appears to be concerned about Kurdish militancy in northwestern Iran, which may cause the regime to divert personnel and resources toward border security and constrain its protest-suppression capacity.
Iranian Protests: There are reports of a new protest in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on January 16. Protest activity in Zahedan is unique and may not reflect a resurgence in protest activity across Iran, however.
Rumored Iraqi Militia Deployments: There are additional reports that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have deployed to Iran within the “past few weeks” to support the regime’s crackdown on protests. Anti-regime media sources have cited similar reports during previous waves of protests in Iran.
Syrian Military Operations in Aleppo Province: The Syrian Ministry of Defense appears to have begun its assault to capture Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory in the Deir Hafer salient in eastern Aleppo Province on January 16 amid recent US de-escalation attempts. This ground operation will likely remain limited to eastern Aleppo Province.
Iran Update, January 16, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)
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