The Iranian Regime’s Suppression of Protests: The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests have likely suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement.
Economic Instability in Iran: Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran’s banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime. Iranian leaders’ reported money transfers will reduce the amount of hard currency in Iran, which will in turn likely make Iran’s banking crisis more acute and inhibit the regime’s ability to solve its liquidity crisis.
Iranian Information Operation: The Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime’s violent crackdown on protests. The regime uses the narrative that protesters are “terrorists” to treat the public as a hostile force rather than as a population that has legitimate grievances.
Hezbollah Strategic Calculus: Hezbollah may be hesitant to conduct any direct action against Israel or the United States to support Iran that could trigger a full-scale conflict and disrupt the group’s reconstitution efforts.
SDF-Syrian Government Fighting in Aleppo Province: Divisions within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have reportedly impeded the year-long integration negotiations, threaten to prolong fighting between the SDF and the Syrian government in eastern Aleppo Province and risk further destabilizing northeastern Syria.
Tribal Activity in Syria: The Syrian government likely seeks to discourage Arab tribes in SDF-controlled eastern Syria from mobilizing against the SDF in order to maintain stability in northeastern Syria as it fights the SDF in eastern Aleppo Province, which indicates that the Syrian government seeks a limited operation in eastern Aleppo rather than a campaign to destroy the SDF.
Iran Update, January 15, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)
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