(Petras Katinas and Natia Seskuria – RUSI) For years, the Kremlin has fought a war that most Russians could watch from a distance. Ukraine is beginning to change that. Its sustained strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure are turning the war into a daily economic burden, forcing the Kremlin to choose between export revenues and domestic stability. On 28 June 2026, after weeks of mounting evidence of fuel shortages across Russia, President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged for the first time that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure were creating ‘problems’ and a ‘certain shortage’ of fuel. Yet he insisted the situation was ‘not critical’ and had no impact on military operations, even as shortages spread. As the costs of the war become increasingly difficult for ordinary Russians to ignore, the Kremlin will find it harder to keep the conflict insulated from everyday life. The longer Putin pursues his maximalist aims in Ukraine, the more detached he becomes from realities at home. Many Russians have endorsed the imperial project in principle, but the fear of being directly affected by the war – through Ukrainian strikes on Russian cities or mounting economic hardship – is steadily eroding enthusiasm for rallying around the flag and sacrificing more lives. This shift owes more to Ukrainian strikes bringing the war to the doorsteps of ordinary Russians than to any moral reckoning over the Moscow‑driven bloodshed. – Putin’s Fuel Dilemma | Royal United Services Institute
