Sources: Al Arabiya; ASPI The Strategist; CNN; Crisis Group; Politico
Australia – France
(Eric Frecon – ASPI The Strategist) The announcement of an upgrade of the Australia-France Roadmap confirms that both countries are moving forward shoulder-to-shoulder in the global scrum. As Canberra and Paris strengthen their partnership and move past mutual misunderstandings, and as Australian and French interests increasingly converge, the time is ripe for such an upgrade. This upgrade, announced on 9 June, was perhaps inevitable given the two countries’ burgeoning doctrinal convergence. Australia and France increasingly identify the same strategic challenges, similar ways to address them and a desire to adopt cooperative approaches to navigating them. The challenge now is to translate that convergence into action. The final roadmap should set the stage for cooperation in areas that have thus far received less attention, including defence industry, the Western Indian Ocean, space security and overlapping interests in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. It may also be time to revitalise and upgrade the Paris–New Delhi–Canberra Trilateral Dialogue by giving it a greater strategic purpose. Over time, this path could lead to opportunities with Indonesia and Canada, building on the existing network of partnerships across the Indo-Pacific. – The Australia–France Roadmap upgrade is necessary in a downgraded global environment | The Strategist
China
(Paula Allen – ASPI The Strategist) The West’s strategy to contain China behind island chains risks being bypassed – China could gain free access to the Pacific by recovering territory lost to Russia in the 19th century. This may not be imminent, but it’s increasingly plausible as Russia weakens and becomes ever more dependent on China, and it could happen with little or no warning. If China held the Pacific coast north of North Korea, including the port of Vladivostok, its naval forces could reach the Pacific free of current chokepoints and monitoring. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would face simultaneous strategic exposure across their defences, undersea cables and sea routes. Repossession of the lost Russian Far East would also give China maritime access to the Arctic, as well as control over critical mineral deposits central to the global technology supply chain. China lost more than 1 million square km of Pacific coastline to Russia under the Treaty of Aigun in 1858 and the Convention of Peking in 1860. The territory runs north of North Korea to the Sea of Okhotsk. Its crown is Vladivostok, Russia’s only Pacific naval base east of Sakhalin. – If China recovers Russian Far East coast, it will suddenly outflank island chain | The Strategist
(John Liu, Fred He – CNN) When humanoid robots dominated the stage of last year’s Spring Festival Gala with sleek dance routines, Ai Lin saw more than a spectacle. He saw a business. Soon after, the e-commerce livestreamer in Hangzhou shelled out $30,000 for his first android and turned it into a rental venture. Business has been brisk. For 3,000 yuan ($443) a day, customers can hire an android to attract crowds at exhibitions, perform at events or even help stage a marriage proposal. But his venture has also revealed what viral videos of dancing, flipping Chinese robots have not: the heavily promoted technology is still years away from replacing human labor, whether on a factory floor or in a household. “The market for humanoid sales hasn’t really taken off yet because today’s robots still can’t operate on their own – they’re basically oversized toys,” he said. Still, Beijing is betting billions of dollars on humanoid robots as a strategic technology that could increase productivity as economic growth slows and its workforce shrinks. Getting a leg up in the burgeoning industry could also help China pull ahead of the US and other rivals in artificial intelligence and advanced technology. – Chinese robots have captivated the world. A rental market is exposing their limits | CNN Business
Colombia
(Crisis Group) In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella won by a razor-thin margin. They unpack a bitter campaign and what the result reveals about a country still deeply divided. They assess outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s legacy and the failure of his “total peace” policy, which sought to reduce violence through dialogue with Colombia’s many armed and criminal groups. They explain how those groups increasingly exert power by controlling civilians and local economies, rather than primarily by fighting the state. They also discuss De la Espriella’s promised security crackdown, the dangers it could bring, Latin America’s rightward shift and what to watch as he takes office. – Will “El Tigre” Colombia’s New President Launch Another War on Drugs? | International Crisis Group
European External Action Service
(Jacopo Barigazzi and Clea Caulcutt – Politico) The EU’s two most powerful countries want the bloc’s foreign policy wing to change. They just don’t agree on how to do it. France is pushing for the role of the EU’s top diplomat, currently Kaja Kallas, to be strengthened, according to three officials who spoke to POLITICO. Germany’s view is far less fixed, but some of the country’s officials have floated the opposite: diluting her powers and giving them to the European Commission. The debate between Paris, Berlin and Brussels encapsulates the challenges, questions and doubts confronting the European External Action Service that launched in 2011. Among governments and the EU’s most senior officials, there’s a sense that something must change. It’s just not clear what. – Paris and Berlin push to make EU foreign policy great — somehow – POLITICO
Europe – China
(Carlo Martuscelli – Politico) The European Union and China agreed on Monday to establish a new high-level consultation mechanism to manage growing commercial tensions and address the bloc’s widening trade deficit with Beijing. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said after meeting Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels that the EU and China are launching a Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism to tackle the economic imbalances that Brussels says are battering European industry. Šefčovič added he would visit China in October, when he hoped to present the “first tangible results.” – EU and China seek to head off trade war with new dialogue – POLITICO
Europe – US
(Pieter Haeck and Mathieu Pollet – Politico) The European Commission fired back Monday at Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats against Europe’s tech rules, just as EU and U.S. officials opened talks in Washington meant to repair their increasingly strained digital relationship. A delegation led by the EU’s top tech official, Roberto Viola, is in Washington until Wednesday for what the Commission is calling a “dialogue on a future potential dialogue” with its U.S. counterparts. The visit comes after the U.S. president threatened new tariffs on EU countries that impose digital service taxes on American tech companies in a post on his social media platform Friday. The U.S. State Department also called recent EU initiatives to boost tech sovereignty “protectionist,” in a comment to POLITICO on Sunday. – Brussels claps back at Trump’s tech threats – POLITICO
Europe – Serbia
(Gabriel Gavin – Politico) The EU is drafting plans to reward Serbia for dialing back controversial laws, in order to incentivize the country to stop backsliding on democracy. Last week, Serbia’s parliament backed relaxing controversial rules that international legal experts had warned would undermine the independence of the judiciary and weaken the fight against organized crime. The European Commission is now looking for ways to incentivize Belgrade to continue reforms and avoid it reneging on commitments to the bloc, four officials working on the plans told POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to speak frankly about the initiative. Those EU plans will, however, be delayed after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced at the weekend that he planned to resign and call parliamentary and presidential elections, making the timing a sensitive political issue. – EU plans reset with Serbia as elections loom – POLITICO
Germany
(James Angelos and Nette Nöstlinger – Politico) German political leaders are responding to Volkswagen’s bombshell plan to slash 100,000 jobs — potentially one of the largest corporate layoffs in history — with predictable pledges to prevent the cuts, even as Germany’s economic reality grows darker. That sets up a clash between VW’s increasingly aggressive corporate management and the politicians and unions that sit on the automaker’s supervisory board — and who have the power to block the plans. It’s a fight that ties the survival of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ever-more-unpopular coalition government to Germany’s increasingly bleak and potentially inescapable economic reality. VW’s push to cut nearly one in six workers and shut down four German plants is the most poignant sign yet of the growing desperation of Germany’s manufacturing sector and its once-vaunted car industry, which have been hit particularly hard by competition from China and U.S President Donald Trump’s tariff wars. – German politicians vow to stop VW’s mass layoff plan – POLITICO
NATO
(Lara Jäkel – Politico) NATO leaders meet in Ankara next week, and the alliance’s former Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has a message for them: Show Donald Trump that defense spending is rising, keep supporting Kyiv and hammer home to Russia’s Vladimir Putin that the war in Ukraine was a “strategic failure”. Although Trump regularly attacks NATO members, denouncing them for low defense spending and not helping in the war against Iran, Stoltenberg underlined that allies should make the argument that U.S. security depends on the alliance. “I hope that the summit will be a strong sign of unity in NATO. That despite the differences, we are able to stand together against the key threats and challenges we face,” Stoltenberg, now Norway’s finance minister, told WELT — which, like POLITICO, belongs to the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network. Stoltenberg served as secretary-general from 2014 to 2024, a period that covered Trump’s first presidency, Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But the alliance during Trump’s second term is even more unstable. – POLITICO Pro Q&A: NATO keeps America safe, former chief says – POLITICO
Poland – Ukraine
(Wojciech Kość – Politico) Poland and Ukraine have a common enemy — Russia — but a dispute over massacres eight decades ago is increasingly being weaponized in domestic politics on both sides. The historical feud began in May when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named a Ukrainian military unit after the “Heroes of UPA,” which outraged Poland. The Ukrainian Insurgent Army, known as UPA, killed tens of thousands of Poles in World War II in an ethnic cleansing campaign in what is now western Ukraine. On the Polish side, the heated debate about Zelenskyy’s move is already threatening to weigh on next year’s crucial general election — with the nationalist camp seeing an opportunity to score points against pro-EU centrists. – How a bloody past is reshaping politics in Poland and Ukraine – POLITICO
Red Sea
(Crisis Group) In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar Federico Donelli, author of the recent book Power Competition in the Red Sea, to assess the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea region. They trace the region’s long history as an arena for great-power competition before turning to the new scramble that has reshaped it since the turn of the millennium, as Gulf states, Türkiye and other middle powers compete over ports, bases, supply lines and political influence. They examine how the UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out in the region, how Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has reshuffled regional alignments, and how Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security. They also consider Europe’s weight as a strategic actor and what future stability could look like in a region shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments and non-state actors. – The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down | International Crisis Group
UK
(Mason Boycott-Owen – Politico) Britain is announcing one of the biggest shake-ups of its armed forces in decades, and it’s using the experience of the war in Ukraine as a model. The Defence Investment Plan, set to be published on Tuesday by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in one of his last acts before stepping down, shows the U.K. is copying Ukraine’s successful playbook to focus on “cheap systems destroying high-value targets and innovation cycles measured in weeks, not years,” the Ministry of Defence said on Monday. The move indicates how the government intends to meet the goals of last year’s Strategic Defence Review, which warned that “state conflict has returned to Europe,” after a funding crunch that prompted former Defence Secretary John Healey unexpectedly quit earlier this month. – Britain unveils its new Ukraine-modeled armed forces – POLITICO
(Dan Bloom – Politico) Andy Burnham painted the first broad strokes of his premiership on Monday — and it might be the closest look Brits get before he takes power. In a domestic-focused speech at a museum of left-wing political activism in Manchester, Britain’s presumptive next PM pledged to decentralize power from Whitehall, reindustrialize England’s forgotten towns and give the state a bigger role in housing, utilities and infrastructure. Burnham took no questions from the media and plans only a handful of big interventions between now and entering No. 10, none of which will be heavy on detailed policy, said a person with knowledge of his plans who was granted anonymity to speak frankly. – Andy Burnham soft-launches his premiership – POLITICOUS
Ukraine
(David Kirichenko – ASPI The Strategist) In fighting an asymmetric war against a much larger adversary, Ukraine has sought to leverage technology wherever possible. First came the proliferation of first-person-view (FPV) drones across the battlefield. Now, uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) are beginning to spread across the front line. For Ukraine, manpower has been one of the war’s greatest constraints. Heavy casualties have made preserving soldiers increasingly important, driving efforts to replace people with machines wherever possible. ‘In April, UGVs performed over 10,000 missions. Most of these are logistic operations: delivering supplies to the front line and back,’ said Ihor Shmyryov, head of the UGV department at procurement organisation Brave1. He believes Ukraine should be able to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky’s target of supplying 50,000 UGVs to the armed forces this year with ease. – Better to use (and lose) robots than soldiers: Ukraine’s UGV drive | The Strategist
US
(Stephen Collinson – CNN) Sometimes, these days, it feels like the Supreme Court is running the country. The nine justices are being repeatedly called upon to adjudicate the most charged disputes that spring from the fault lines of a nation split into ideological halves and that other malfunctioning institutions have failed to decisively solve. They are also incessantly dragged into the fray by Donald Trump, a president who has been as good as his promises to initiate massive constitutional disruption and who often even leverages cases he loses to sharpen his political ax. Amid the Trump storm, the court is curating modern mores on social issues that may change the country’s character; remodeling aspects of the electoral system; and tackling culture-war controversies embedded in the president’s political project, such as transgender rights and who is entitled to be a citizen. To a lay person, the court’s decisive voice on the country’s most intractable questions has often made it seem like a governing force itself, rather than the modest branch that Chief Justice John Roberts has said simply calls legal and constitutional balls and strikes. The contrast is stark between the dynamism of the court’s intellectual jousting and Congress, which has either forgotten how to legislate change or voluntarily ceded its power to the White House. – How the Supreme Court became a power that is reshaping America | CNN Politics
(Bryan Mena – CNN) Throughout his second term, President Donald Trump has tried to bend the Federal Reserve to his will. On Monday, he suffered his biggest setback yet. Trump last year tried to remove a sitting Fed governor, Lisa Cook, from the Fed’s powerful board, citing unproven allegations of mortgage fraud. No charges have been brought against Cook. But in a landmark case, the Supreme Court ruled against the president on Monday, saying the administration failed to give Cook the opportunity to address those accusations, as required by law. Pushing out Cook, a key Fed policymaker who votes on interest rates, could have given Trump an opportunity to appoint a replacement more aligned with his push for lower borrowing costs. In a statement after the court’s decision, Cook said Trump’s efforts to oust her were “an attempt to remove me on a manufactured pretext”. It’s just one way that Trump and his allies have tried to pressure the politically independent US central bank. – Trump is losing his fight with the Fed | CNN Business
US – NATO – Europe – Baltics
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) The United States will stand with its European allies in the defense of the Baltic countries, the American commander of NATO’s land forces in Europe said on Tuesday as the alliance assigned an additional headquarters to the region. “You’re ready to do more and following words with action, and the United States will be there alongside you,” US General Chris Donahue said at a ceremony in the Estonian town of Valga. “That is how deterrence is built: Not with words from a podium, but with boots in the mud.” – US will stand with European allies in defense of Baltics, US general says
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