LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Jacob Zenn – The Jamestown Foundation) flood of foreign fighters to IS provinces in Africa is unlikely, but East Africa is more primed than West Africa to see an inflow of jihadists from around the world due to cultural differences and the harsh environment of the Sahel.
Asia
(Kelly Grieco, Jennifer Kavanagh – East Asia Forum) The United States’ strategy of prioritising security over economic relations is seen as destabilising by Asian countries, which view their economic and security interests as inseparable. This suggests a need for Washington to reassess its approach. To reconcile these conflicting domains, the United States should lessen its provocative military activities, integrate further into the region’s economic networks, increase participation in Asia’s development banks and approach regional issues with an understanding of the intrinsic interdependence between security and economy.
Bridging the security-economic divide in Asia | East Asia Forum
Bangladesh
(Shafi Md Mostofa – The Jamestown Foundation) The issue of terror financing has become a front and center challenge in Bangladesh. Militants use “self-donations,” remittances through the hundi system, robbery, and front businesses to finance their operations. This is particularly important due to the revelation of connections between Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, a newly formed Muslim militant organization, and the Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF), a Christian armed group.
China
(Kaize Zhu – East Asia Forum) As China’s property sector has moved from a state-dominated model to a market-orientated approach, so too have local governments become heavily reliant on land sales, facing issues such as unaffordable housing, overcapacity, high leverage and increasing household and local government debt. China’s experience offers lessons for other Asian economies on balancing economic and social welfare, the shift towards sustainable urban development and the need to diversify beyond real estate.
Lessons gleaned from China’s property market woes | East Asia Forum
European Union
(Atlantic Council) “We are not intimidated by Russia, and we are absolutely on the side of Ukraine.” Speaking following a two-day meeting of the European Council, President of the European Council Charles Michel reiterated the bloc’s support for Ukraine. However, to fully appreciate what this support will entail—from possibly seizing Russian funds to helping Ukraine’s reconstruction—requires digging into conclusions that came out of the two-day meeting.
Global Perspectives
(RAND Corporation) The United States and its allies have a window of opportunity to bolster their security and prepare for the global challenges to come. But it’s closing fast as China and other adversaries build up their own militaries. “’Business as usual,’” a recent RAND report concluded, “is no longer sufficient.”
A New Approach for the U.S. Armed Forces: Q&A with David Ochmanek | RAND
India
(Sudha Ramachandran – The Jamestown Foundation) The Indian government and the government of the restive northeastern state of Manipur signed a “peace agreement” with the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), a banned ethnic Meitei organization, on November 29, 2023. While signing the peace agreement is a breakthrough for the Indian government, it is unlikely to usher in peace in the foreseeable future. New Delhi signed the peace agreement with a segment of the UNLF that split off in 2020 under the leadership of then-chairman Khundongbam Pambei. This faction has only around 65 members, as opposed to rest of the UNLF, which opposes the agreement. The remainder is led by R.K. Achou Singh (alias Koireng), and has some 300 members. Other militant Meitei groups in Manipur are not signatories to the agreement. A separate agreement with militants that come from the Kuki-Zo tribal communities may collapse. Other challenges include the spillover effects of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and a high number of armaments that are currently circulating around Manipur.
Indian and Manipuri Governments Reach Fraught Peace Agreement with UNLF’s Pambei Group – Jamestown
Nigeria
(Jacob Zenn – The Jamestown Foundation) Nigeria struggles to provide security to its population, though efforts like the use of artificial intelligence to track militant movement patterns may aid the government in the future. On March 7, bandits in Nigeria’s Kaduna State abducted an estimated 280 students from a boarding school, just a week after around 200 women were kidnapped from internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Borno State on February 29. This latter attack, likely performed by the remnants of Abubakar Shekau’s faction, closely resembles the infamous 2014 abduction of approximately 280 schoolgirls in Chibok, Borno State.
Brief: Nigerian Bandits and Former Shekau Faction Likely Behind Recent Abductions – Jamestown
Pakistan
(Riccardo Valle – The Jamestown Foundation) The militant landscape of Pakistan is becoming more complex due to the emergence of several new, small, and highly capable militant groups. They are largely connected to two umbrella organizations, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB). While HGB includes many subgroups, Jabhat Ansar al-Mahdi Khorasan (JAMK) quickly rose to prominence thanks to its dedication to forming a proper media entity tasked with methodically claiming attacks. JAMK releases videos and statements from the group’s leadership, in contrast with the reclusive leaders of HGB.
Russian War in Ukraine
(Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Artillery battles rage along the frontlines of the Russia-Ukraine war, with artillery causing about 80 percent of casualties. Ukraine urgently needs an influx of artillery ammunition to maintain its positions—let alone launch another counteroffensive to drive the Russians off Ukrainian territory. Last year, the Biden administration worked with South Korea’s Yoon administration to send over 300,000 155-millimeter (mm) shells to Ukraine. The administration may need to re-tap the South Korean munitions stockpile to arm Ukraine in the face of dwindling stockpiles and congressional inertia. The good news is that South Korea may be willing to cooperate.
Can South Korean 105-Millimeter Ammunition Rescue Ukraine? (csis.org)
Senegal
(James Storen and Annie (Yu-Lin) Lee – Atlantic Council) Senegal has long been viewed as a haven of democracy in West Africa. Since achieving independence from France in 1960, the country has held regular elections and remained under democratic rule. Senegal’s democratic stability is commendable, particularly considering that many of its neighbors—from Guinea to Burkina Faso—have all experienced military coups. The recent presidential election, however, has shown cracks in Senegal’s traditionally strong democracy. While elections are ultimately slated to continue after a period of uncertainty, the events in Senegal have uncovered larger issues related to the rule of law, a vital determinant in sustaining democracy.
USA
1 – (James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) Mark Twain upon reading his obituary in 1897 quipped that “the report of my death was an exaggeration.” Repeated talk that the American public is turning isolationist merits a similar reaction. American internationalism may have weakened in recent years, but it is hardly dead and buried.
Election 2024 Roundup: Are Americans Turning Isolationist? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Alice C. Hill and Tess Turner – Council on Foreign Relations) Atmospheric rivers are gaining in intensity across California and the western United States. Communities need to adapt to the havoc wrought by this weather phenomenon.
How Big a Climate Threat Are Atmospheric Rivers? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
