From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Middle East; Myanmar; Russia-Ukraine; South Korea; US-China; US; US-Venezuela-Carribean; Uzbekistan
Middle East
(Middle East Institute) Two years after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks and Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, the two sides have agreed to a new cease-fire. But can it last, and what kind of Middle East has emerged from the turmoil in the interim? In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak with MEI Senior Fellow Paul Salem about how the conflict has reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape, from Iran’s weakened deterrence and shifting attitudes toward Israel as a prospecitve security partner to the renewed centrality of American power and influence for regional countries. The conversation also explores President Trump’s Gaza peace plan and the uncertain path toward reconstruction, regional integration, and enduring stability in the aftermath of the war. – The Gaza Cease-Fire and a Region Reshaped by War | Middle East Institute
Myanmar
(The Soufan Center) At least 32 people were killed and over 50 were injured in an attack in Myanmar last week when junta paragliders dropped bombs on a crowd at a candlelight vigil against the regime that doubled as an observation of the important Buddhist holiday, the festival of light, or Thadingyut. Until recently, junta troops had steadily lost territory, economic assets, and popular support to a loosely aligned opposition coalition, with the People’s Republic of China shifting its strategic calculus to wholly back the junta regime. Economic interests, including critical mineral reserves that have also attracted markets like the U.S., likely underpin Beijing’s engagement in Myanmar. Myanmar’s vast critical mineral reserves have caught the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump in his quest to secure critical minerals globally, but this interest is fragile and constrained. – Fighting Continues to Rage in Myanmar as the Death Toll Mounts – The Soufan Center
Russia – Ukraine
(Rahul Rawat, Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) Russia now controls about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory (as of April 2025) following its invasion of the country in February 2022, having made major advances since mid-2023 after being initially pushed back by Ukrainian forces. This paper analyses Russia’s wartime adaptations—at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels—that have influenced battlefield outcomes in its favour. It argues that while Russia has suffered severe troop and resource losses, it has gradually learnt and adapted its strategy, force structure, and defence-industrial base to sustain operations and regain momentum. The paper concludes that adaptation has been central to Russia’s battlefield success, even as it struggles to convert military gains into political advantage – Russia’s Wartime Adaptation Against Ukraine
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities. Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have already been severely affected by this, and in some areas, the situation is critical. Drones have become a key element of the attack, while Ukraine is actively developing interceptor drones as an effective and inexpensive means of countering massive UAV attacks by Russia. Long-range weapons, both domestic and, potentially, U.S.-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, could become a powerful means of deterrence or retaliation. – Ukraine Braces for Another Hard Winter – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Kyiv is moving toward more openly backing non-Russian national movements within Russia. It is convinced that such efforts will help it defeat Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and that the decolonization of Russia will ensure Ukraine’s future security. Such moves, which have their origins in earlier efforts by Ukraine and others to counter Moscow, have so far been largely limited to declarations about Russian colonialism and providing a haven for nationalist leaders. That appears set to change. The lengths that Ukraine will now go to, however, remain unclear, but its moves have already alarmed Moscow and prompted it to crack down, and are worrying some in Ukraine and the West that any such moves could prove counterproductive, at least in the short term. – Kyiv Moving Toward More Direct Support of Non-Russian Movements within Russia – Jamestown
South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) In the last decade, South Korea’s defence exports have become one of the successful case studies of the country’s export basket. However, given the changing nature of modern warfare, a shift focusing on the adoption of New Generation Technologies (NGT), such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, and semiconductors, is taking place within the Korean defence industry. Given the strategic importance of these systems, the Korean government has given greater attention to developing these technologies for dual purposes, intending to boost domestic production and manufacturing capacity. This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the transition in South Korea’s defence industrialisation by mapping the application of the three NGTs across industry, manufacturing, and military. – Mapping South Korea’s Defence Industrialisation in the Age of Smart Technologies
US
(Middle East Institute) US President Donald Trump started off his week by flying to Israel and Egypt to mark the Gaza cease-fire and release of the last remaining Israeli hostages. On this lightning visit, Trump did what he does best: he seized the spotlight at just the right time to dominate network coverage at the beginning of a crowded news cycle and basked in the achievement. The cease-fire deal represents a significant, tangible foreign policy accomplishment early in Trump’s second term, although it is only the first phase in a presumably long process, with many implementation challenges yet to be resolved. As these positive developments unfolded in the Middle East, the Trump administration’s overall agenda was weighed down on other fronts: a government shutdown in the United States entered its third week, and tensions on the US-China front spilled over into global markets and geopolitics, a reminder that the foundations of American policy remain uncertain on important strategic fronts. – Trump’s big week in the Middle East weighed down by troubles on other fronts | Middle East Institute
US – China
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs – CSIS) New U.S. policies aimed at curtailing China’s growing dominance over global shipbuilding went into effect on October 14. The rollout of these measures over the past year triggered temporary volatility in international ship ordering behavior but has not yet produced lasting change in China’s market position. – U.S. Policies Only Temporarily Shake China’s Shipbuilding Dominance
US – Venezuela – Carribean
(Mark F. Cancian – CSIS) The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) destroyed a fifth suspected drug vessel on October 14, while President Donald Trump reportedly authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. Several insights regarding the ongoing counterdrug campaign emerge from the administration’s actions and announcements. – Caribbean Update: Fifth Suspected Drug Runner Destroyed
Uzbekistan
(Nargiza Umarova – The Jamestown Foundation) Uzbekistan’s plans to build infrastructure facilities at the Iranian Chabahar port to gain direct access to the Indian Ocean have not been implemented, indicating Tashkent’s possibly cautious approach to this issue. New Delhi is strengthening its economic ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) through ongoing negotiations to create a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union. Tashkent is pivoting toward an alternate Trans-Afghan railway corridor linking Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, aiming for a faster, more direct Eurasia–South Asia route and reduced dependence on Iranian infrastructure. – Uzbekistan Weighs Risks of Chabahar Investment – Jamestown
