Geostrategic magazine (it-en, october 23, 2023)

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Daily from global think tanks

Worlds (ASEAN-Indonesia-Myanmar; AUKUS; Australia-Asia-Pacifc; China; Finland-NATO-Indo Pacific; IMEC; India; Iran-Iraq; Iraq; Russia; Serbia-Kosovo-Europe; Southeast Asia-Australia-Indonesia; Turkey)

ASEAN – Indonesia – Myanmar

Cchavi Vasisht scrive dell’approccio dell’ASEAN a Presidenza indonesiana sulla situazione in Myanmar (Vivekananda International Foundation)

Cchavi Vasisht writes about the Indonesian presidency of ASEAN on the situation in Myanmar (Vivekananda International Foundation)

Indonesia’s Presidency of ASEAN: Approach to Crisis in Myanmar | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

AUKUS

Nishank Motwani scrive del progetto AUKUS, delle aree di incertezza e dei rapporti in progress tra gli alleati per la sicurezza nell’area dell’Indo-Pacifico (ASPI The Strategist)

Nishank Motwani writes about the AUKUS project, the areas of uncertainty and the ongoing relationship between the security allies in the Indo-Pacific (ASPI The Strategist)

AUKUS’s three pillars of uncertainty: sovereignty, strategy and costs | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Australia – Asia – Pacific

David M. Andrews scrive che, nel mondo, si assiste alla ripresa della creazione o del rafforzamento di accordi formali di sicurezza. L’Autore analizza i movimenti dell’Australia nell’area asiatica e del Pacifico (Lowy The Interpreter)

David M. Andrews writes that the world is witnessing a resurgence in the creation or strengthening of formal security arrangements. The author analyses Australia’s movements in the Asia-Pacific region (Lowy The Interpreter)

A sign of the times: the resurgence of pacts, treaties, and alliances | Lowy Institute

China

Harsh V. Pant scrive delle sfide globali per la Belt and Road Initiative (Observer Research Foundation)

Harsh V. Pant writes about global challenges for the Belt and Road Initiative (Observer Research Foundation)

China Envisions A New World Order Via BRI | ORF (orfonline.org)

Finland – NATO – Indo Pacific

Euan Graham scrive dell’ingresso della Finlandia nella NATO in ragione della trasformazione dell’ambiente strategico. Una lezione per l’Indo Pacifico ? (ASPI The Strategist)

Euan Graham writes about Finland’s entry into NATO because of the transformation of the strategic environment. A lesson for the Indo-Pacific ? (ASPI The Strategist)

Lessons from Finland for the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

IMEC

Il progetto IMEC non è necessariamente in competizione con la Belt and Road Initiative di Pechino (Emirates Policy Center)

The IMEC project is not necessarily in competition with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (Emirates Policy Centre)

Emirates Policy Center | IMEC and BRI: Beyond Complementary Competition (epc.ae)

Omer Taspinar scrive che il corridoio commerciale e di trasporto IMEC, sostenuto dal G20, cerca di costituire un contrappeso geopolitico alle aspirazioni di interconnettività di Cina e Russia (Emirates Policy Center)

Omer Taspinar writes that the IMEC trade and transport corridor, supported by the G20, seeks to provide a geopolitical counterweight to the interconnectivity aspirations of China and Russia (Emirates Policy Centre)

Emirates Policy Center | The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor’s Strategic Meaning for Washington (epc.ae)

India

Sudarshan Ramabadran scrive dell’importanza della ‘public diplomacy’ per rafforzare il ruolo globale dell’India (Observer Research Foundation)

Sudarshan Ramabadran writes about the importance of ‘public diplomacy’ to strengthen India’s global role (Observer Research Foundation)

Strengthening India’s Global Influence through a Sound Public Diplomacy Policy | ORF (orfonline.org)

Iran – Iraq

A marzo 2023 è stato sottoscritto un accordo tra Teheran e Baghdad, in gran parte attuato ma non del tutto. L’Iran continua a sottolineare che l’Iraq deve fare di più per far progredire il patto di sicurezza bilaterale. Teheran sostiene che Baghdad deve eliminare tutte le fonti di insicurezza causate dai separatisti e sta esplorando i modi per attuare l’accordo, tra cui la costruzione di altri posti di frontiera all’interno dell’Iraq e un possibile nuovo accordo di confine tra l’Iraq e la Turchia, altro Paese che sta  cercando di controllare i gruppi separatisti curdi lungo i suoi confini (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

An agreement between Tehran and Baghdad was signed in March 2023, largely implemented but not fully. Iran continues to emphasise that Iraq must do more to advance the bilateral security pact. Tehran argues that Baghdad must eliminate all sources of insecurity caused by separatists and is exploring ways to implement the agreement, including building more border posts inside Iraq and a possible new border agreement between Iraq and Turkey, another country that is trying to control Kurdish separatist groups along its borders (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

Iran’s Push to Implement the Border Security Deal With Iraq | International Institute for Iranian Studies (rasanah-iiis.org)

Iraq

La crisi del dollaro in Iraq. Implicazioni economiche e geopolitiche (Emirates Policy Center)

The dollar crisis in Iraq. Economic and geopolitical implications (Emirates Policy Center)

Emirates Policy Center | Dollar Crisis in Iraq: An Economic Dilemma with Geopolitical Implications (epc.ae)

Russia

Tatiana Stanovaya scrive sulla divisione, nella élite russa, tra ‘amministratori’ e ‘revisionisti’. L’Autrice nota che l’instabilità, le battute d’arresto militari, l’escalation e il deterioramento della posizione della Russia nella guerra contribuiscono a rafforzare i revisionisti e a indebolire gli amministratori (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Tatiana Stanovaya writes about the division in the Russian elite between ‘administrators’ and ‘revisionists’. The author notes that instability, military setbacks, escalation and the deterioration of Russia’s position in the war contribute to strengthening the revisionists and weakening the administrators (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Russia’s Other War: The Administrators Versus the Revisionists – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Serbia – Kosovo – Europe 

Clément Therme scrive della difficile situazione tra Serbia e Kosovo, questione di sicurezza per l’Europa (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

Clément Therme writes about the difficult situation between Serbia and Kosovo, a security issue for Europe (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

Serbia-Kosovo Standoff: Motives, Reactions and Implications for EU Security | International Institute for Iranian Studies (rasanah-iiis.org)

Southeast Asia – Australia – Indonesia

Gatra Priyandita e Thomas Parks discutono della geopolitica del Sud-Est asiatico, in particolare delle diverse dinamiche regionali, tra cui l’ASEAN, le sfide regionali e le relazioni che Paesi come l’Australia e il Giappone hanno nella regione e come sono cambiate. Natalie Sambhi discute della politica e della politica estera indonesiana e delle relazioni dell’Australia con l’Indonesia (ASPI The Strategist)

Gatra Priyandita and Thomas Parks discuss the geopolitics of Southeast Asia, particularly the different regional dynamics, including ASEAN, regional challenges and the relationships that countries such as Australia and Japan have in the region and how they have changed. Natalie Sambhi discusses Indonesian politics and foreign policy and Australia’s relationship with Indonesia (ASPI The Strategist)

Policy, Guns and Money: Geopolitics in Southeast Asia and Australia–Indonesia relations | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Turkey

La questione curda rimane, per Ankara, un fattore critico nel plasmare il suo approccio verso l’Europa e il Medio Oriente. Nel frattempo, le persistenti tensioni e divergenze all’interno del movimento curdo possono complicare il percorso verso una risoluzione sostenibile con Ankara (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

The Kurdish issue remains, for Ankara, a critical factor in shaping its approach towards Europe and the Middle East. Meanwhile, persistent tensions and differences within the Kurdish movement may complicate the path to a sustainable resolution with Ankara (Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies)

Ankara’s Lingering Kurdish Challenge | International Institute for Iranian Studies (rasanah-iiis.org)

Systemic Sustainability (Artificial Intelligence; Cryptocurrency & Global Affairs)

Artificial Intelligence 

Raluca Csernatoni scrive che i modelli di intelligenza artificiale generativa pongono all’UE dilemmi normativi, di governance globale e di sicurezza. Bruxelles dovrebbe lavorare per mitigare i rischi e stabilire norme per un’IA affidabile (Carnegie Europe)

Raluca Csernatoni writes that generative AI models pose regulatory, global governance and security dilemmas for the EU. Brussels should work to mitigate risks and establish standards for reliable AI (Carnegie Europe)

Generative AI Poses Challenges for Europe – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Cryptocurrency & Global Affairs

Sauradeep Bag scrive del rapporto complesso tra criptovalute e conflitti armati (Observer Research Foundation)

Sauradeep Bag writes about the complex relationship between cryptocurrencies and armed conflicts (Observer Research Foundation)

Bullets and bitcoin: Financing conflict | ORF (orfonline.org)

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