Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive che l’azione tentata nel fine settimana dal gruppo Wagner conferma le grandi difficoltà per la Russia di mantenere un ruolo forte all’interno dell’asse del Sud Globale (1).
Ancora sulla Russia, Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) sottolinea la debolezza del regime russo analizzando la mancanza di informazioni affidabili a Mosca (entropia comunicativa) o un isolamento intenzionale delle comunicazioni all’interno del Cremlino (2)
Hlib Parfonov (The Jamestown Foundation) sostiene che, verso la fine dell’estate, la Russia dovrà nuovamente dichiarare una mobilitazione su larga scala. Anche a seguito della potenziale destabilizzazione provocata dalle recenti azioni di Prigozhin, Mosca potrebbe – in tempi brevi – trovarsi in una situazione di perdita, sia in Ucraina che a livello nazionale (3)
Leonid Sokolov (The Jamestown Foundation) si domanda se il ruolo di Prigozhin sia di contrappeso nel criticare la cattiva gestione della guerra in Ucraina da parte del Ministero della Difesa russo e nell’attribuire a Shoigu e Gerasimov la sola colpa degli scarsi risultati: Prigozhin è il jolly politico-militare di Putin ? (4)
Andriy Zagorodnyuk (Atlantic Council), dopo l’azione di Prigozhin in Russia e l’indebolimento di Mosca, descrive le possibilità per la controffensiva ucraina (5).
Un podcast del think tank CSIS approfondisce la mossa di Prigozhin e la risposta del Cremlino guardando al futuro del governo di Vladimir Putin e della guerra in corso in Ucraina (6).
Ksenia Kirillova (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive che il fatto che la propaganda russa non abbia menzionato che i combattenti di Prigozhin sono riusciti a conquistare importanti obiettivi strategici dimostra la mancanza di professionalità all’interno delle forze militari e di sicurezza russe e rafforza il sospetto che alcune persone nella leadership del Ministero della Difesa e dell’FSB abbiano contribuito alle azioni di Prigozhin. Il confronto tra le élite russe e i servizi speciali sta diventando sempre più violento (7).
Mikhail Komin (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) descrive, a partire dall’azione di Prigozhin, la complessità dei rapporti di forza all’interno del sistema di potere della difesa russa (8).
Una interessante riflessione di Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) sostiene che i russi etnici nelle ex repubbliche sovietiche stanno, per varie ragioni, diminuendo di numero. Questa tendenza, secondo Globe, potrebbe rafforzare i Paesi della periferia russa, riducendo l’area del cosiddetto Russkiy mir (9).
Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) scrive dell’importanza per l’Europa di preoccuparsi per il futuro della Russia. Tra le molte cose, Dempsey sottolinea il coinvolgimento della società civile e dei media indipendenti che operano fuori dal Paese (10).
Stephen Sestanovich (CFR), guardando al prossimo vertice NATO di Vilnius, descrive le tappe del difficile percorso di avvicinamento di Kiev all’Alleanza (11).
Mark F. Cancian, Sean Monaghan e Daniel Fata (CSIS) sottolineano che, con particolare riferimento alla difesa e alla deterrenza nella regione baltica, il vertice NATO di Vilnius dovrà dare attuazione a quanto deciso al precedente incontro di Madrid (12).
Petr Tůma (Atlantic Council) guarda ai crescenti rapporti di alcuni Paesi dell’Europa Centrale e Orientale verso Taiwan. Ma, secondo una ricerca del think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, la maggioranza degli europei continua a percepire la Cina come un partner con cui collaborare e non sembra credere alla narrativa “democrazia contro autocrazia”. Pertanto, nota l’Autore, non vi sarà alcuna svolta diplomatica a breve o medio termine per quanto riguarda Taiwan (13)
Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR) scrive a proposito del nuovo governo bulgaro e sulle conseguenze per la regione e per l’Europa. La Bulgaria è diventata un problema per l’Unione europea a causa della debolezza dello Stato di diritto, della presenza in parlamento di un importante partito pro-Russia, Revival, e di un discorso pubblico pieno di fake news e retorica anti-occidentale (14)
english version
Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that the action attempted over the weekend by the Wagner Group confirms the great difficulties for Russia to maintain a strong role within the Global South axis (1).
Still on Russia, Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) underlines the weakness of the Russian regime by analysing the lack of reliable information in Moscow (communicative entropy) or an intentional isolation of communications within the Kremlin (2)
Hlib Parfonov (The Jamestown Foundation) argues that Russia will have to declare a large-scale mobilisation again towards the end of the summer. Also as a result of the potential destabilisation caused by Prigozhin’s recent actions, Moscow could – in the short term – find itself in a lose-lose situation, both in Ukraine and domestically (3)
Leonid Sokolov (The Jamestown Foundation) questions whether Prigozhin’s role is a counterweight in criticising the Russian Defence Ministry’s mismanagement of the war in Ukraine and blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov for the poor results: Is Prigozhin Putin’s political-military wildcard ? (4)
Andriy Zagorodnyuk (Atlantic Council), after Prigozhin’s action in Russia and the weakening of Moscow, describes the possibilities for the Ukrainian counteroffensive (5).
A CSIS think tank podcast elaborates on Prigozhin’s move and the Kremlin’s response by looking at the future of Vladimir Putin’s government and the ongoing war in Ukraine (6).
Ksenia Kirillova (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that the fact that Russian propaganda did not mention that Prigozhin’s fighters managed to conquer important strategic targets demonstrates the lack of professionalism within the Russian military and security forces and reinforces the suspicion that some people in the leadership of the Ministry of Defence and the FSB contributed to Prigozhin’s actions. The confrontation between the Russian elites and the special services is becoming increasingly violent (7).
Mikhail Komin (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) describes, starting with Prigozhin’s actions, the complexity of power relations within the Russian defence power system (8).
An interesting reflection by Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) argues that ethnic Russians in the former Soviet republics are, for various reasons, decreasing in number. This trend, according to Globe, could strengthen the countries on the Russian periphery, reducing the area of the so-called Russkiy mir (9).
Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) writes about the importance for Europe to be concerned about the future of Russia. Among many things, Dempsey emphasises the involvement of civil society and independent media operating outside the country (10).
Stephen Sestanovich (CFR), looking ahead to the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, describes the stages of Kiev’s difficult path to the Alliance (11).
Mark F. Cancian, Sean Monaghan and Daniel Fata (CSIS) point out that, with particular reference to defence and deterrence in the Baltic region, the Vilnius NATO summit will have to implement what was decided at the previous meeting in Madrid (12).
Petr Tůma (Atlantic Council) looks at the growing relations of some Central and Eastern European countries towards Taiwan. However, according to research by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, the majority of Europeans still perceive China as a partner to cooperate with and do not seem to believe in the ‘democracy versus autocracy’ narrative. Therefore, notes the author, there will be no diplomatic breakthrough in the short or medium term with regard to Taiwan (13)
Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR) writes about the new Bulgarian government and the consequences for the region and Europe. Bulgaria has become a problem for the EU due to the weak rule of law, the presence of a major pro-Russia party, Revival, in parliament, and a public discourse full of fake news and anti-Western rhetoric (14)
version française
Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit que l’action tentée ce week-end par le groupe Wagner confirme les grandes difficultés pour la Russie de maintenir un rôle fort au sein de l’axe Global South (1).
Toujours à propos de la Russie, Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) souligne la faiblesse du régime russe en analysant le manque d’informations fiables à Moscou (entropie communicative) ou l’isolement intentionnel des communications au sein du Kremlin (2).
Hlib Parfonov (The Jamestown Foundation) estime que la Russie devra à nouveau déclarer une mobilisation de grande ampleur vers la fin de l’été. En raison également de la déstabilisation potentielle causée par les récentes actions de Prigozhin, Moscou pourrait – à court terme – se retrouver dans une situation perdante, tant en Ukraine que sur le plan intérieur (3).
Leonid Sokolov (The Jamestown Foundation) se demande si le rôle de Prigozhin est un contrepoids dans la critique de la mauvaise gestion de la guerre en Ukraine par le ministère russe de la défense et dans la mise en cause de Shoigu et Gerasimov pour les mauvais résultats : Prigojine est-il le joker politico-militaire de Poutine ? (4)
Andriy Zagorodnyuk (Atlantic Council), après l’action de Prigozhin en Russie et l’affaiblissement de Moscou, décrit les possibilités de contre-offensive ukrainienne (5).
Un podcast du think tank CSIS développe l’action de Prigozhin et la réponse du Kremlin en examinant l’avenir du gouvernement de Vladimir Poutine et la guerre en cours en Ukraine (6).
Ksenia Kirillova (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit que le fait que la propagande russe n’ait pas mentionné que les combattants de Prigozhin avaient réussi à conquérir d’importantes cibles stratégiques démontre le manque de professionnalisme des forces militaires et de sécurité russes et renforce le soupçon que certaines personnes au sein de la direction du ministère de la défense et du FSB ont contribué aux actions de Prigozhin. La confrontation entre les élites russes et les services spéciaux devient de plus en plus violente (7).
Mikhail Komin (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) décrit, à partir des actions de Prigozhin, la complexité des relations de pouvoir au sein du système de défense russe (8).
Une réflexion intéressante de Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) affirme que les Russes ethniques dans les anciennes républiques soviétiques sont, pour diverses raisons, de moins en moins nombreux. Selon lui, cette tendance pourrait renforcer les pays situés à la périphérie de la Russie, réduisant ainsi la zone de ce que l’on appelle le Russkiy mir (9).
Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) écrit sur l’importance pour l’Europe de se préoccuper de l’avenir de la Russie. Judy Dempsey insiste notamment sur l’implication de la société civile et des médias indépendants opérant à l’extérieur du pays (10).
Stephen Sestanovich (CFR), dans la perspective du prochain sommet de l’OTAN à Vilnius, décrit les étapes du difficile chemin de Kiev vers l’Alliance (11).
Mark F. Cancian, Sean Monaghan et Daniel Fata (CSIS) soulignent que, s’agissant en particulier de la défense et de la dissuasion dans la région balte, le sommet de l’OTAN de Vilnius devra mettre en œuvre ce qui a été décidé lors de la réunion précédente à Madrid (12).
Petr Tůma (Atlantic Council) se penche sur les relations croissantes de certains pays d’Europe centrale et orientale avec Taïwan. Toutefois, selon une étude du groupe de réflexion European Council on Foreign Relations, la majorité des Européens perçoivent toujours la Chine comme un partenaire avec lequel il faut coopérer et ne semblent pas croire à l’opposition entre la démocratie et l’autocratie. Par conséquent, note l’auteur, il n’y aura pas de percée diplomatique à court ou moyen terme en ce qui concerne Taïwan (13).
Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR) écrit sur le nouveau gouvernement bulgare et ses conséquences pour la région et l’Europe. La Bulgarie est devenue un problème pour l’UE en raison de la faiblesse de l’État de droit, de la présence d’un grand parti pro-russe, Revival, au parlement, et d’un discours public rempli de “fake news” et de rhétorique anti-occidentale (14).
(1) Mutiny Undercuts Russian Intrigues in the Global South – Jamestown
(2) Communication Entropy in the Kremlin vs. Putin’s Information Isolation – Jamestown
(3) Moscow Scrambling to Solve Manpower Shortages—Without Another Mobilization – Jamestown
(4) Yevgeny Prigozhin: Putin’s Political-Military Joker? – Jamestown
(5) Ukrainians have good reason to cheer Russia’s Wagner rebellion – Atlantic Council
(6) Prigozhin’s Uprising | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
(7) Prigozhin’s Mutiny Took Russian Propaganda by Surprise – Jamestown
(9) Ethnic Russian Identity in Post-Soviet Space Not as Fixed as Moscow Thinks – Jamestown
(12) Strengthening Baltic Security: Next Steps for NATO (csis.org)
(13) What’s driving Central and Eastern Europe’s growing ties with Taiwan? – Atlantic Council
(14) Cautious optimism: What Bulgaria’s new government means for Europe | ECFR