Perspectives from think tanks
Topics
Systemic Sustainability – Artificial Intelligence
Tom Wheeler (Brookings) analizza le tre sfide per la supervisione dell’ intelligenza artificiale: gestire la velocità degli sviluppi dell’IA, analizzare le componenti da regolamentare e determinare chi regolamenta e come – Tom Wheeler (Brookings) analyses the three challenges for the supervision of artificial intelligence: managing the speed of AI developments, analysing the components to be regulated and determining who regulates and how – Tom Wheeler (Brookings) analyse les trois défis de la supervision de l’intelligence artificielle : gérer la vitesse des développements de l’IA, analyser les composants à réglementer et déterminer qui réglemente et comment – The three challenges of AI regulation (brookings.edu)
Systemic Sustainability – Climate Action
Un report a cura di Francisco Gaetani e Marianna Albuquerque (per G20-T20) sostiene che governance internazionale del clima deve essere ridisegnata per evitare frammentazione, sovrapposizioni e strategie divergenti – A report by Francisco Gaetani and Marianna Albuquerque (for G20-T20) argues that international climate governance must be redesigned to avoid fragmentation, overlaps and divergent strategies – Un rapport de Francisco Gaetani et Marianna Albuquerque (pour le G20-T20) affirme que la gouvernance climatique internationale doit être repensée pour éviter la fragmentation, les chevauchements et les stratégies divergentes – Redesigning Climate Governance | ThinkTwenty (T20) India 2023 – Official Engagement Group of G20 (t20ind.org)
Un policy brief del think tank Peterson Institute (a cura di Kimberly Clausing, Luis Garicano, Catherine Wolfram) approfondisce il tema che Stati Uniti e Unione Europea devono coordinare le loro politiche di riduzione del metano ed eventualmente imporre aggiustamenti sulle importazioni da Paesi che non aumentano i loro standard. Una tale politica di aggiustamento alle frontiere USA-UE ridurrebbe le emissioni di metano di una percentuale stimata tra il 15 e il 45% a livello mondiale – A policy brief by the think tank Peterson Institute (by Kimberly Clausing, Luis Garicano, Catherine Wolfram) elaborates on the theme that the US and EU should coordinate their methane reduction policies and possibly impose adjustments on imports from countries that do not raise their standards. Such a US-EU border adjustment policy would reduce methane emissions by an estimated 15-45% worldwide – Un policy paper du think tank Peterson Institute (par Kimberly Clausing, Luis Garicano, Catherine Wolfram) développe le thème selon lequel les États-Unis et l’UE devraient coordonner leurs politiques de réduction du méthane et éventuellement imposer des ajustements sur les importations en provenance des pays qui n’améliorent pas leurs normes. Une telle politique d’ajustement aux frontières entre les États-Unis et l’UE permettrait de réduire les émissions de méthane d’environ 15 à 45 % au niveau mondial – How an international agreement on methane emissions can pave the way for enhanced global cooperation on climate change | PIIE
Systemic Sustainability – Global Governance
Connor O’Brien (The Interpreter) scrive che, in tempi di friendshoring e di nuovo consenso di Washington, servirebbe che gli USA riconoscessero l’inevitabilità del multipolarismo economico, e investissero di conseguenza, piuttosto che affidarsi sulle presunte ricadute positive dei loro investimenti nazionali. Tale scelta farebbe maturare un circolo virtuoso di collaborazione Nord-Sud per la transizione verde, anziché alimentare cicli di competizione geoeconomica – Connor O’Brien (The Interpreter) writes that, in times of friendshoring and the new Washington consensus, it would serve the US to recognise the inevitability of economic multipolarity, and invest accordingly, rather than rely on the supposed positive spillovers of its domestic investments. This would bring about a virtuous circle of North-South collaboration for green transition, rather than fuelling cycles of geo-economic competition – Connor O’Brien (The Interpreter) écrit qu’à l’heure du friendshoring et du nouveau consensus de Washington, il serait bon que les États-Unis reconnaissent le caractère inévitable de la multipolarité économique et investissent en conséquence, plutôt que de s’appuyer sur les prétendues retombées positives de leurs investissements nationaux. Cela permettrait de créer un cercle vertueux de collaboration Nord-Sud pour la transition écologique, plutôt que d’alimenter des cycles de concurrence géoéconomique – Is US industrial policy headed in the wrong direction? | Lowy Institute
Dan Negrea and Joseph Lemoine (Atlantic Council) scrivono degli indici di libertà e prosperità a livello globale elaborati dall’ Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center – Dan Negrea and Joseph Lemoine (Atlantic Council) write about global freedom and prosperity indices compiled by the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center – Dan Negrea et Joseph Lemoine (Atlantic Council) écrivent sur les indices mondiaux de liberté et de prospérité compilés par le Freedom and Prosperity Center de l’Atlantic Council – Prosperity that lasts: The 2023 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes – Atlantic Council
Un report a cura di Velina Tchakarova (per G20-T20) riflette sul crescente coordinamento, in seno al Consiglio di Sicurezza ONU, tra Russia e Cina e sulle possibili implicazioni per l’ordine internazionale. L’India è un attore chiave nel bilanciare interessi divergenti e nel promuovere sforzi di collaborazione – A report by Velina Tchakarova (for G20-T20) reflects on the increasing coordination in the UN Security Council between Russia and China and the possible implications for the international order. India is a key player in balancing diverging interests and promoting collaborative efforts – Un rapport de Velina Tchakarova (pour le G20-T20) se penche sur la coordination croissante entre la Russie et la Chine au sein du Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies et sur les implications possibles pour l’ordre international. L’Inde est un acteur clé pour équilibrer les intérêts divergents et promouvoir les efforts de collaboration – The UNSC and the Balancing Act Between the US and the ‘Dragonbear’: Lessons for the G20 | ThinkTwenty (T20) India 2023 – Official Engagement Group of G20 (t20ind.org)
Un report a cura di Madhav Das Nalapat, Dhanasree Jayaram, B. Poornima (per G20-T20) sottolinea che il G20 dovrebbe includere gruppi come l’Unione Africana, la Comunità degli Stati dell’America Latina e dei Caraibi e l’Associazione delle Nazioni del Sud-Est Asiatico come membri a pieno titolo o in un formato “G20-plus” – A report by Madhav Das Nalapat, Dhanasree Jayaram, B. Poornima (for G20-T20) points out that the G20 should include groups such as the African Union, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as full members or in a ‘G20-plus’ format – Un rapport de Madhav Das Nalapat, Dhanasree Jayaram, B. Poornima (pour le G20-T20) souligne que le G20 devrait inclure des groupes tels que l’Union africaine, la Communauté des États d’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes et l’Association des nations de l’Asie du Sud-Est en tant que membres à part entière ou dans un format “G20-plus” – Ensuring Greater Equity in Global Institutional Participation | ThinkTwenty (T20) India 2023 – Official Engagement Group of G20 (t20ind.org)
Worlds
Armenia – Turkey – Azerbaijan
Cavid Veliyev (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive del monumento ‘Nemesis’ a Yerevan che potrebbe mettere a rischio i rapporti tra Armenia e la Turchia e i colloqui di pace tra Armenia e Azerbaijan – Cavid Veliyev (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the ‘Nemesis’ monument in Yerevan that could jeopardise relations between Armenia and Turkey and peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan – Cavid Veliyev (The Jamestown Foundation) parle du monument ‘Nemesis’ à Erevan qui pourrait compromettre les relations entre l’Arménie et la Turquie et les pourparlers de paix entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan – ‘Nemesis’ Monument Disrupts Turkish–Armenian Normalization – Jamestown
China
Tianlei Huang (Peterson Institute) scrive della necessità per la Cina di rivedere la strategia immobiliare. Occorre prestare maggiore attenzione ai flussi demografici effettivi: la crescente richiesta di trasferimenti nelle città più grandi si scontra con la carenza di alloggi e con un aumento insostenibile dei costi – Tianlei Huang (Peterson Institute) writes about the need for China to review its real estate strategy. More attention needs to be paid to actual population flows: the growing demand for relocation to larger cities clashes with housing shortages and unsustainable increases in costs – Tianlei Huang (Peterson Institute) écrit sur la nécessité pour la Chine de revoir sa stratégie immobilière. Une plus grande attention doit être accordée aux flux de population réels : la demande croissante de relocalisation dans les grandes villes se heurte à la pénurie de logements et à l’augmentation insoutenable des coûts – Housing surpluses in some places and shortages in others reflect China’s failed economic strategies | PIIE
Europe – Indo Pacific
Nigel Gould-Davies e Ben Schreer (IISS) scrivono che lo Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 ha approfondito anche l’interconnessione crescente tra le geopolitica della sicurezza europea e quella asiatica – Nigel Gould-Davies and Ben Schreer (IISS) write that the Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 also explored the growing interconnection between European and Asian security geopolitics – Nigel Gould-Davies et Ben Schreer (IISS) écrivent que le dialogue Shangri-La 2023 a également exploré l’interconnexion croissante entre la géopolitique de la sécurité européenne et asiatique – Reflections from SLD: the enmeshed geopolitics of Asia and Europe (iiss.org)
Iran
The daily report of the Institute for the Study of War – Iran Update, June 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Japan – Australia
Justin Bassi (The Strategist) scrive sull’attenzione di incrementare le relazioni tra Giappone e Australia. Al centro la ricerca tecnologica e la stabilità regionale – Justin Bassi (The Strategist) writes about the focus on increasing relations between Japan and Australia. At the centre is technological research and regional stability – Justin Bassi (The Strategist) écrit sur l’accent mis sur le renforcement des relations entre le Japon et l’Australie. La recherche technologique et la stabilité régionale sont au centre des préoccupations – New dimensions for Japan–Australia strategic cooperation | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia
Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive della disinformazione di Mosca sull’aumento della produzione militari. Luzin sostiene che la produzione di armi russa resterà, nel prossimo futuro, fortemente dipendente dalle importazioni di attrezzature industriali avanzate, tecnologie e componenti dall’Occidente e da altri Paesi – Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about Moscow’s misinformation on increasing military production. Luzin argues that Russian arms production will remain heavily dependent on imports of advanced industrial equipment, technologies and components from the West and other countries for the foreseeable future – Pavel Luzin (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur la désinformation de Moscou concernant l’augmentation de la production militaire. Luzin affirme que la production d’armes russe restera fortement dépendante des importations d’équipements industriels avancés, de technologies et de composants en provenance de l’Occident et d’autres pays dans un avenir prévisible – The True State of Russian Arms Manufacturing, June 2023 – Jamestown
Salafi-Jihadi Movement
The daily report of the Institute for the Study of War – Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Southeast Asia
Mark Turner e Anthea McCarthy-Jones (East Asia Forum) scrivono della combinazione di truffe informatiche e traffico di persone nel Sud-est asiatico. Le difficoltà per l’ASEAN – Mark Turner and Anthea McCarthy-Jones (East Asia Forum) write about the combination of cyber scams and human trafficking in Southeast Asia. The difficulties for ASEAN – Mark Turner et Anthea McCarthy-Jones (East Asia Forum) écrivent sur la combinaison des cyber-escroqueries et de la traite des êtres humains en Asie du Sud-Est. Les difficultés de l’ ASEAN – Cyber slavery starts up in Southeast Asia | East Asia Forum
South Korea
Gabriela Bernal (The Interpreter) scrive se la Corea del Sud vuole essere percepita come un Paese che contribuisce alla pace, alla libertà e alla prosperità deve investire maggiormente nella cooperazione multilaterale. La linea della nuova strategia di sicurezza nazionale guarda Tokyo e a Washington. Pur tra difficoltà, Pechino non può essere elusa – Gabriela Bernal (The Interpreter) writes if South Korea wants to be perceived as a country that contributes to peace, freedom and prosperity it must invest more in multilateral cooperation. The line of the new national security strategy looks to Tokyo and Washington. Even amidst difficulties, Beijing cannot be sidestepped – Gabriela Bernal (The Interpreter) écrit que si la Corée du Sud veut être perçue comme un pays qui contribue à la paix, à la liberté et à la prospérité, elle doit investir davantage dans la coopération multilatérale. La ligne de la nouvelle stratégie de sécurité nationale se tourne vers Tokyo et Washington. Même en cas de difficultés, Pékin ne peut être éludé – It’s time for South Korea to refocus on multilateral diplomacy | Lowy Institute
Turkmenistan – Tajikistan
Nuray Alekberli-Museyibova (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive che Turkmenistan e Tagikistan intendono lavorare alla creazione di un nuovo corridoio di trasporto che permetterà a entrambi i Paesi di accedere all’Europa attraverso il Mar Caspio. Oltre a l’accesso ai mercati europei, il corridoio proposto intende fornire un collegamento alternativo per le merci provenienti dalla Cina e dirette in Europa – Nuray Alekberli-Museyibova (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that Turkmenistan and Tajikistan intend to work on the creation of a new transport corridor that will allow both countries access to Europe via the Caspian Sea. In addition to access to European markets, the proposed corridor is intended to provide an alternative route for goods from China to Europe – Nuray Alekberli-Museyibova (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit que le Turkménistan et le Tadjikistan ont l’intention de travailler à la création d’un nouveau corridor de transport qui permettra aux deux pays d’accéder à l’Europe via la mer Caspienne. Outre l’accès aux marchés européens, le corridor proposé est destiné à fournir une route alternative pour les marchandises de la Chine vers l’Europe – Tajikistan Aims to Revitalize Transportation Corridor to Europe – Jamestown
USA
George Ingram e Susan Reichle (Brookings) esaminano il ruolo dello sviluppo nell’ambiente geostrategico. Occorre che USAID e le altre agenzie governative statunitensi abbiano la capacità e lo spazio per promuovere lo sviluppo a lungo termine in un ambiente sempre più transazionale – George Ingram and Susan Reichle (Brookings) examine the role of development in the geostrategic environment. USAID and other US government agencies need to have the capacity and space to promote long-term development in an increasingly transactional environment – George Ingram et Susan Reichle (Brookings) examinent le rôle du développement dans l’environnement géostratégique. L’USAID et les autres agences gouvernementales américaines doivent avoir la capacité et l’espace nécessaires pour promouvoir le développement à long terme dans un environnement de plus en plus transactionnel – USAID’s Policy Framework (brookings.edu)
USA – China
William A Reinsch and Emily Benson (East Asia Forum) scrivono che le nuove norme dello US Bureau of Industry and Security sulla esportazione di semiconduttori e di alcune attrezzature per la produzione delle stesse hanno un effetto geopolitico importante. In particolare, considerando la complessità delle questioni sollevate dagli Autori, gli Stati Uniti devono tenere conto, oltre ai limiti e ai costi dei controlli, i costi politici ed economici che chiedono ai Paesi alleati di sostenere – William A Reinsch and Emily Benson (East Asia Forum) write that the US Bureau of Industry and Security’s new regulations on the export of semiconductors and certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment have an important geopolitical effect. In particular, considering the complexity of the issues raised by the authors, the US must take into account, in addition to the limits and costs of the controls, the political and economic costs to allied countries of bearing – William A Reinsch et Emily Benson (East Asia Forum) écrivent que les nouvelles réglementations du Bureau américain de l’industrie et de la sécurité sur l’exportation de semi-conducteurs et de certains équipements de fabrication de semi-conducteurs ont un effet géopolitique important. En particulier, compte tenu de la complexité des questions soulevées par les auteurs, les États-Unis doivent prendre en compte, outre les limites et les coûts des contrôles, les coûts politiques et économiques pour les pays alliés de supporter des coûts de production – US chipping away at global semiconductor supply chains | East Asia Forum
USA – India
Brahma Chellaney (Project-Syndicate – The Strategist) scrive del rapporto in progress tra Washington e Delhi. ‘Swing State’, l’India è decisiva per gli USA ma, altrettanto, segna differenze in nome dell’autonomia strategica – Brahma Chellaney (Project-Syndicate – The Strategist) writes about the developing relationship between Washington and Delhi. ‘Swing state’, India is decisive for the US but, equally, marks differences in the name of strategic autonomy – Brahma Chellaney (Project-Syndicate – The Strategist) s’intéresse à l’évolution des relations entre Washington et Delhi. ‘État pivot’, l’Inde est décisive pour les États-Unis mais marque également des différences au nom de l’autonomie stratégique – Modi in America | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA – Israel
Ofer Granot e Daniel Rosenblatt (INSS) scrivono della recente multa record imposta dagli USA a un’azienda d’oltreoceano che fabbrica i suoi prodotti al di fuori dei confini degli Stati Uniti, per aver violato i controlli sulle esportazioni statunitensi. La natura extraterritoriale delle norme statunitensi di controllo sulle esportazioni può diventare un problema per le aziende israeliane. Come dovrebbero intervenire le autorità di controllo israeliane, proteggendo le aziende ed evitando controlli troppo severi da parte di Washington dell’attività tecnologica ed economica sull’asse Israele-USA ? – Ofer Granot and Daniel Rosenblatt (INSS) write about the recent record fine imposed by the US on an overseas company that manufactures its products outside US borders, for violating US export controls. The extraterritorial nature of US export control regulations can become a problem for Israeli companies. How should Israeli regulators intervene, protecting companies and avoiding overly strict Washington controls of technological and economic activity on the Israel-US axis? – Ofer Granot et Daniel Rosenblatt (INSS) écrivent sur la récente amende record imposée par les États-Unis à une entreprise étrangère qui fabrique ses produits en dehors des frontières américaines, pour avoir violé les contrôles américains à l’exportation. La nature extraterritoriale des réglementations américaines en matière de contrôle des exportations peut devenir un problème pour les entreprises israéliennes. Comment les régulateurs israéliens doivent-ils intervenir pour protéger les entreprises et éviter des contrôles trop stricts de Washington sur l’activité technologique et économique sur l’axe Israël-États-Unis ? – Tightened Global Enforcement of US Export Controls: The Significance for Israel | INSS
USA – Middle East
Ved Shinde (The Interpreter) scrive che in Medio Oriente gli USA intendono passare da un interventismo onshore a un bilanciamento offshore per contribuire alla stabilità regionale. Si analizzano le conseguenze che nuova moderazione di Washington in Medio Oriente. E’ interessante, per il bilanciamento regionale, la configurazione I2U2 tra India, Israele, Stati Uniti ed Emirati Arabi Uniti – Ved Shinde (The Interpreter) writes that in the Middle East the US intends to shift from onshore interventionism to offshore balancing to contribute to regional stability. The consequences of Washington’s new moderation in the Middle East are analysed. Of interest for regional balancing is the I2U2 configuration between India, Israel, the United States and the United Arab Emirates – Ved Shinde (The Interpreter) écrit qu’au Moyen-Orient, les États-Unis ont l’intention de passer d’un interventionnisme onshore à un équilibrage offshore pour contribuer à la stabilité régionale. Les conséquences de la nouvelle modération de Washington au Moyen-Orient sont analysées. La configuration I2U2 entre l’Inde, Israël, les États-Unis et les Émirats arabes unis présente un intérêt pour l’équilibre régional – Washington’s difficult dance in the Middle East | Lowy Institute
USA – Taiwan
Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass (CSIS) scrivono che gli USA devono guardare alle prossime elezioni presidenziali di Taiwan rispettando le scelte autoctone – Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass (CSIS) write that the US must look at the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan while respecting indigenous choices – Jude Blanchette et Ryan Hass (CSIS) écrivent que les Etats-Unis doivent se pencher sur les prochaines élections présidentielles à Taiwan tout en respectant les choix des autochtones – How the United States Can Support Taiwan’s Democracy (csis.org)
War in Ukraine
The daily report of the Institute for the Study of War – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive del dibattito in corso sul fatto che, proseguendo con l’occupazione dell’Ucraina, cresceranno progressivamente i problemi per Mosca – Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the ongoing debate that continuing with the occupation of Ukraine will progressively increase problems for Moscow – Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur le débat en cours selon lequel la poursuite de l’occupation de l’Ukraine augmentera progressivement les problèmes pour Moscou – Occupying More of Ukraine Will Bring More Problems for Russia – Jamestown
Published analyses do not necessarily correspond to the strategic line of The Global Eye
