Sources (The Jamestown Foundation)
Central Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Water shortages in Central Asia have become so severe that they can no longer be resolved by water-sharing agreements between the so-called “water surplus” upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the “water short” downstream countries. This crisis is undermining not only growth and stability in the region’s countries but also regional cooperation, and is increasingly involving neighboring countries, from whom the region seeks water, threatening massive refugee flows if it does not get it.
For the foreseeable future, the need for water and the inability of the Central Asian countries to solve this problem on their own are thus likely to be a major cause of conflict within the region and between its countries and the People’s Republic of China, Russia and Afghanistan. – Growing Water Shortages in Central Asia Threaten Region and its Neighbors – Jamestown
Russia – China – Power of Siberia 2
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Shares of Gazprom dropped sharply after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ended without progress on the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Gazprom lost about $1.4 billion in value on May 20 alone amid renewed doubts over Russian access to PRC gas markets. Russia is hoping to replace European markets for its natural gas—which largely closed after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—with the PRC’s. Gazprom currently relies on Power of Siberia 1 to deliver its natural gas to the PRC, but it lacks the capacity to replace the volume of gas that flowed to Europe, intensifying pressure to reach a deal with the PRC on Power of Siberia 2. The PRC is pushing for near-domestic gas prices and flexible volumes, while Russia insists on higher prices and “take-or-pay” guarantees. Even if an agreement is reached, Power of Siberia 2 would take years to build, and PRC demand would not fully offset lost European gas revenues. – Putin’s PRC Visit Failed to Advance Power of Siberia 2 – Jamestown
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