LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Perspectives
Energy Security – (David L. Goldwyn, Joseph Webster – Atlantic Council) Winter’s prominence in world natural gas markets is diminishing. Climate change and new energy technologies are moderating Europe’s demand in the winter months for energy and in particular for natural gas. This is good news for Europe’s energy security and a credit to the policies of the European Union (EU) and many national and local governments. But summer gas demand globally is also impacted by rising summer temperatures. Taken together, the impacts of these two trends on global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets and prices could be consequential.
Non-State Actors – (Ved Shinde – Lowy The Interpreter) The might of the US military no longer guarantees world order. There are new actors and new ecosystems in play.
Non-state actors and the phantom of asymmetry | Lowy Institute
Terrorism – (Catrina Doxsee, Alexander Palmer, Riley McCabe – CSIS) Terrorism is no longer the leading international threat to the United States or its top defense priority, but challenges related to violent extremism remain. The threat from Salafi-jihadist groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State has declined, and ethnonationalist threats are largely contained. However, a broader patchwork of violent far-right and far-left extremist ideologies has become more prominent on the global stage. Meanwhile, terrorism continues to overlap in significant ways with strategic competition, especially via Iran’s support to terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2024 (csis.org)
Africa
(Danielle Resnick – Brookings) Democratic backsliding via military takeovers, electoral rigging, and unlawful constitutional amendments have notably increased in Africa over the last decade.
Subnational democracy and local governance in Africa | Brookings
Australia
(Sam Goldsmith – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR) prescribed the ADF a ‘strategy of denial’ using an Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) force structure to deny adversaries the ‘freedom of action to militarily coerce Australia and to operate against Australia without being held at risk’. The ADF’s primary area of interest spans from the north-eastern Indian Ocean to Australia’s northern approaches in Southeast Asia to the Pacific.
Australia – ASEAN
(Sue Thompson – Lowy The Interpreter) When the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was formed in 1967 with five members – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand – a major Australian concern was regional security, principally because of the continuing war in Vietnam. Australia had forces stationed in South Vietnam and Malaysia, and was a member of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO).
Australia and ASEAN: A storied history | Lowy Institute
Australia – China
(Graeme Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) The five-year icy age between Australia and China has wound down. The leaders have met, and enough fitful warmth has returned to melt a few icicles.
Australia – Myanmar
(Moe Thuzar, Kyi Sin – Lowy The Interpreter) Myanmar-Australia relations before and after Myanmar’s admission to ASEAN in 1997 can best be described as paved with good intentions. No peaks or troughs occurred in Australia’s interactions with then Burma after diplomatic relations were established in 1952. Burma then was mostly distant and abstract to many Australians, although for Second World War veterans, the country was a reminder of the gruelling Burma campaign and of the Burma-Thailand railway constructed by Allied prisoners of war.
Myanmar and Australia: A partnership paved with good intentions | Lowy Institute
Near East
(Lydia Khalil – Lowy The Interpreter) Each passing week of the Gaza conflict brings more reports of provocation by Iranian proxies and stronger responses from the United States, its partners and allies. Yet neither Iran nor the United States has an interest in a direct confrontation. If it is not in the interest of either major player to widen the war and risk having a direct face off, then why does it seem like we are slow marching towards that reality?
Gaza: The domestic politics of a regional war | Lowy Institute
Ukraine
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced the removal of Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, in the biggest shakeup of the country’s military leadership since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago.
Removal of Ukraine’s ‘Iron General’ is one of Zelenskyy’s biggest gambles – Atlantic Council
USA
(William A. Galston – Brookings) Last October, Senate Republicans made it clear that they would not back additional aid for Ukraine without a bill that would help secure the southern border of the United States. With the blessing of both Senator Chuck Schumer, the Majority Leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader, a bipartisan team of senators began negotiations to produce a bill that enough members of both parties could accept to overwhelm objections from progressive Democrats and America First Republicans.
The collapse of bipartisan immigration reform: A guide for the perplexed | Brookings
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
