LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
NATO: Trump alza i toni, l’Europa cerca una propria difesa (Carlo Rebecchi)
Ricerca complessa in tempi ‘nuovi’ / Complex research in ‘new’ times (Marco Emanuele)
IA sovrane. Ogni Paese deve pensarci, e in fretta, dice il Ceo di Nvidia (Marzia Giglioli)
Il Medio Oriente, crocevia del mondo. Carlo Rebecchi dialoga con l’Ambasciatore Mario Boffo
USA: guerra ai deepfake. La paura è un caos politico. Fuori legge i falsi robocaller elettorali (Marzia Giglioli)
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Argentina
(Jin Jian Guo – ThinkChina) In his recent speech at the World Economic Forum, Argentina’s President Javier Milei pointed out that collectivist experiments are never the solution to the problems afflicting the citizens of the world, but are, on the contrary, the cause. Commentator Jin Jian Guo takes a closer look at Milei’s criticisms and assertions.
President Milei: Argentina is proof that collectivism does not work , Economy News – ThinkChina
Australia
1 – (Bryant Harris, Jen Judson – Defense News) The U.S. is gearing up to give Australia and Britain a broad exemption to Washington’s export control regime in hopes of enabling a key pillar of the AUKUS agreement focused on facilitating joint development of advanced defense technologies. But before the U.S. issues that exemption, it wants Australia to adopt export control laws similar to its own. And several Australian defense companies are unhappy about legislation pending in Australia’s parliament that would replicate a U.S.-style export control regime.
Australian defense industry concern grows over export controls (defensenews.com)
2 – (Sam Roggeveen – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia looks set to make a big decision about the future of its navy – and this time, it’s not submarines. We are days away from the release of the Surface Fleet Review, a report the government commissioned to consider the future of the Royal Australian Navy’s fleet of warships. And while in recent times most of the focus in defence debates has been on how the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact could eat the navy, the very real world examples of an actual war appear to have serious consequences for surface warfare. And this carries lessons for Australia.
The right lessons for Australia’s future warships | Lowy Institute
Canada – Latvia – NATO
(David Pugliese – Defense News) Canada is spending $316 million Canadian dollars ($234 million) for new air-defense and counter-drone systems as well as anti-tank missiles for its troops in Latvia as part of shoring up its NATO commitments. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair announced Feb. 15 that $227 million Canadian will go toward the RBS 70 NG short-range Air Defence System. The equipment, made by Saab, is expected to be delivered later this year.
Canadian NATO troops in Latvia get air-defense, anti-tank upgrades (defensenews.com)
China
(ThinkChina – Caixin Global) The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left a key interest rate unchanged on 15 January, leading the country’s major lenders to keep their benchmark interest rates on hold a week later. The PBOC has been constrained in its ability to cut interest rates over concerns that such a move would drive more capital out of China in search of higher returns. Even so, analysts say the next window of opportunity for a rate cut is likely to be in March or in the next quarter.
China set for interest rate cuts to support economy, Economy News – ThinkChina
China – Latin America and the Carribean
(Ryan C. Berg and Henry Ziemer – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China’s mounting influence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has been the subject of study and consternation in U.S. policy circles for well over a decade. In this time, the multifaceted and ever-evolving contours of China’s engagement with the region have been traced and retraced continuously. An especially concerning area of research in this regard has been the possibility that Chinese economic, diplomatic, security, and political activities within the region could be contributing to the democratic backsliding witnessed in recent decades.
Exporting Autocracy (csis.org)
Crimea
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties for Kyiv, which must balance its interest in recovering its territory with the problems a mass outmigration creates for Ukraine. This humanitarian disaster also creates problems for the international community, but will likely have to deal with its consequences for Ukraine both now and in the future.
Water Shortages in Russian-Occupied Crimea Set to Trigger Mass Outmigration – Jamestown
Europe – Ukraine
(Andrew Chuter – Defense News) European nations are setting up a drone coalition, led by Latvia and Britain, to supply and support the production of thousands of first-person-view drones for the Ukrainian military. Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent alongside Latvia to join the drone coalition Feb 14.
European coalition to rush first-person-view drones to Ukraine (defensenews.com)
Finland – Germany
(Rudy Ruitenberg – Defense News) Finland’s Patria is teaming up with two German companies, including a unit of KNDS, to offer a local variant of its six-wheeled armored personnel carrier to replace Germany’s fleet of Fuchs vehicles. Patria joined with KNDS-owned DSL Defence Service Logistics and FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau for the offer to design, build and maintain the future 6×6 armored personnel carrier for the Bundeswehr, the company said in a statement on Thursday. Patria will remain the prime contractor should Germany pick its vehicle.
Patria teams up with local firms for Germany’s new armored troop ride (defensenews.com)
Indonesia
(Erin Cook – Lowy The Interpreter) “Third time’s the charm,” screamed Indonesian and foreign media after Prabowo Subianto finally clinched victory. Twice Prabowo had lost to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, yet Prabowo was welcomed into the fold by Jokowi following the 2019 trouncing. He was given the role as defence minister in what now has raised the eyebrow of sceptics as a quid pro quo for selecting Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice presidential running mate.
Prabowo is finally president in Indonesia – now what? | Lowy Institute
NATO – Hungary
(Grace Jones – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 disrupted the European security landscape and forced political leaders to reconsider their strategic relationships. Galvanized by Russia’s aggression, NATO is at its strongest point in the 21st century; Hungary remains Russia’s closest ally within the Alliance, however, and is often a thorn in its side.
Russia
1 – (Clementine G. Starling, Mark J. Massa – Atlantic Council) The prospect of space combat is gripping Washington this week. The White House on Thursday confirmed that Russia is developing a “troubling” anti-satellite capability, following statements from leading members of Congress and ensuing reports that Russia is working on a nuclear-armed, on-orbit, anti-satellite weapon. The news has sparked concern about the imminence and degree of such a threat. If fielded, Russian nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapons, or ASATs, would directly challenge norms of responsible behavior in space and present a serious risk to all nations’ satellites. With or without such a system, nuclear and space threats from Russia call for a firm response by the United States and its allies and partners.
2 – (Atlantic Council) Is this a Sputnuke moment? Russia is reportedly developing a space-based nuclear anti-satellite weapon. The news broke on Wednesday after House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner released a cryptic statement on social media urging US President Joe Biden to declassify information about a “serious national security threat.” A White House spokesperson said on Thursday that the Russian system, which is not yet in orbit, does not pose a direct threat of “physical destruction” on Earth. However, it has raised new fears about the possibility of Russia destroying critical US satellites and an arms race in space.
3 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.
Leadership Change in Russia | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
4 – (Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) The conflict in Ukraine has prompted Russia to intensify its efforts to restrict internet freedom, leading to unprecedented measures against uncensored information and internet encryption. In response to censorship, Russian users have turned to VPN technology for accessing uncensored news. Russian officials are actively pursuing technologies to detect and block VPN encryption protocols, including developing separate internet infrastructure under state control. Russian lawmakers are preparing new legislation to compel VPN services to comply with blacklists or face a ban. These actions raise concerns about the loss of access to information in Russia.
Russia Combats Internet Freedom – Jamestown
Russia – Georgia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia has significantly increased its influence in Georgian business, particularly after the beginning of the war against Ukraine. More Russian businesses have opened in Georgia since the start of the war in Ukraine than in the past 30 years combined. Russian business penetration into Georgia is seen as a soft power policy from Russia, leading to an increase in Russian influence in the social fabric of Georgia through demands for residence permits and Russian-language schools. The increase in Russian businesses poses a grave political threat and risks to national security. This also deepens Georgia’s economic dependence on Russia, strengthening Moscow’s influence.
Russians Open Record Number of Businesses in Georgia Amid War in Ukraine – Jamestown
USA
1 – (Andre M. Perry, Manann Donoghoe, Hannah Stephens – Brookings) Throughout 2021, the United States saw immense public investment to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic effects. At the same time, social movements for racial equity rallied many Americans to “Buy Black” and support Black-owned businesses.
Closing the Black employer gap: Insights from the latest data on Black-owned businesses | Brookings
2 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) Project Overmatch networking capabilities have been upgraded and rolled out to an additional number of U.S. Navy ships following testing last year with the Carl Vinson carrier strike group, according to Rear Adm. Doug Small. Project Overmatch represents the service’s contribution to the Department of Defense’s larger connect-everything-everywhere campaign known as Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or CJADC2. Details about the project have been scant since its inception in 2020, a move experts say is necessitated by Russian and Chinese monitoring.
More Navy ships get Overmatch networking following Carl Vinson tests (defensenews.com)
3 – (Courtney Albon – Defense News) Six months into its effort to field thousands of attritable, autonomous systems, the Pentagon is planning the second iteration of the Replicator program — and this time, software will be the focus. Capt. Alex Campbell, director of the Defense Innovation Unit’s naval portfolio, said the second tranche of Replicator systems will emphasize the software needed to connect the sensors and drones it wants to field over the next 18 months.
Pentagon’s Replicator effort will focus on software next (defensenews.com)
4 – (Geoff Ziezulewicz – Defense News) The Navy plans to establish a second unmanned surface drone squadron in May, the head of U.S. Pacific Fleet told the West 2024 conference here Wednesday. “This is not a contractor-owned, contractor-operated capability, but this is a uniformed capability that we’ll be able to own [and] operate unmanned capabilities that can be employed within particular spaces,” Adm. Samuel Paparo said.
Navy to establish second surface drone unit this spring (defensenews.com)
5 – (Laura Taylor-Kale – Defense One) The U.S. faces unprecedented threats to its national security. Our adversaries use coercive economic and trade practices to build their military power to levels not seen since World War II, while weakening the supply chains that U.S. industry needs to produce at speed and at scale the capabilities necessary for modern warfare. China’s aggressive civil/military fusion strategy harnesses commercial technologies in ways that threaten to outpace U.S. defense capabilities. To address these challenges and catalyze change, my office recently published the Department of Defense’s first National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS).
Our industrial strength is a deterrent – Defense One
USA – Africa (AGOA)
(Witney Schneidman – Brookings) The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire in 2025 after serving as the cornerstone of the U.S.-African commercial relationship for nearly the last quarter-century. As Congress and the Biden administration work toward AGOA’s renewal, three critical issues should guide the modernization of the legislation to ensure that it leads to enhanced growth on the continent and deeper commercial ties between Africa and the United States.
Modernizing AGOA for the 21st century | Brookings
War in Ukraine
1 – (Brookings) As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine draws near, the outlook appears bleak: both sides have sustained horrific losses, millions of Ukrainians remain displaced or in exile, and there is no plausible sign of an end to the violence. Western capitals are struggling to supply funds and ammunition to Kyiv, while the Kremlin seemingly draws on limitless supplies and political support from authoritarian allies and continues to pound Ukrainian cities to rubble. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, says he would “encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that spend insufficiently on defense, while Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens Poland and the Baltics in an interview with Tucker Carlson.
Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check? A Brookings debate | Brookings
2 – (Ian Hill – Lowy The Interpreter) The political squabbles in the United States and Europe over continued aid to Ukraine epitomise the wider problem facing Kyiv’s backers: how to sustain popular, and thus, political support to continue backing what may prove a long war. It is now two years on from Moscow’s February 2022 invasion – far longer, if the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea is considered the starting point. The eventual outcome depends on the resilience of the warring parties, shaped in turn by their respective willpower and capacity to sustain the conflict.
Putin believes that time is on Russia’s side – and, sadly, he has a point | Lowy Institute
Perspectives
Global Commons – (Council on Foreign Relations) Esther Brimmer, James H. Binger senior fellow in global governance at CFR, leads a conversation on governing the global commons.
Academic Webinar: Governing the Global Commons | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Global Trade / Waterways – (Spencer Feingold, Andrea Willige – World Economic Forum) Supply chain disruptions at key ocean shipping routes have become more prevalent in recent years. As 90% of traded goods are shipped by sea, keeping these waterways flowing is crucial. Here are five of the most important ocean thoroughfares for global trade.
These are the world’s most vital waterways for global trade | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
