LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
NATO: Trump alza i toni, l’Europa cerca una propria difesa (Carlo Rebecchi)
Ricerca complessa in tempi ‘nuovi’ / Complex research in ‘new’ times (Marco Emanuele)
IA sovrane. Ogni Paese deve pensarci, e in fretta, dice il Ceo di Nvidia (Marzia Giglioli)
Il Medio Oriente, crocevia del mondo. Carlo Rebecchi dialoga con l’Ambasciatore Mario Boffo
USA: guerra ai deepfake. La paura è un caos politico. Fuori legge i falsi robocaller elettorali (Marzia Giglioli)
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Marc Ablong – ASPI The Strategist) The last four years have been tough for Australia. We have seen the disastrous 2019-20 fire season, the Covid-19 pandemic, devastating floods and cyclones, the most comprehensive punitive trade measures used against any country in recent history, a doubling of cybersecurity incidents, including some of the largest data breaches and the most serious ransomware cases, more Australians targeted for espionage and foreign interference than at any time in Australia’s history, the re-emergence of right-wing extremism as a more visible and a growing threat to national security, and an acute threat to Australia’s supply chains sparked by the pandemic and exacerbated by the war in Europe.
National resilience for Australia—learning the lessons | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Southeast Asia
(Michelle Lyons, Roland Rajah, Grace Stanhope – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia is looking to lift its engagement with Southeast Asia. Australia’s Special Envoy to ASEAN, Nicholas Moore, last year set out a new economic strategy to deliver on that ambition. One critical recommendation, which so far has received little public attention, is to establish an Australian infrastructure financing facility supporting Southeast Asia’s green economy transition. This would use public funding to finance large scale climate-related projects in Southeast Asia, especially by helping leverage in greater private investment.
Belarus – Uzbekistan
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Uzbekistan to strengthen bilateral relations between the two post-Soviet states. Economic relations between Uzbekistan and Belarus are becoming stronger. Bilateral trade has increased significantly in the past few years. The strain of Western sanctions on Belarus due to the war in Ukraine has pushed the nation to expand its economic partnerships outside of Russia to Central Asia.
Belarus and Uzbekistan Proclaim a New Chapter in Relations – Jamestown
China
1 – (Gordon Arthur – Defense News) China’s state-owned land systems manufacturer Norinco has revealed a new type of truck-mounted howitzer. The highly automated system, which is aimed at export markets, mates a 6×6 truck chassis with an unmanned turret containing a 155mm L/52 howitzer. The weapon was shown alongside existing artillery products in a Norinco promotional video clip circulated to coincide with Lunar New Year celebrations around Feb. 10. The video was highlighting a Chinese artillery marketing event attended by foreign delegations.
NORINCO in China unveils turreted truck-mounted 155mm howitzer (defensenews.com)
2 – (Zongyuan Zoe Liu – Council on Foreign Relations) A court in Hong Kong has ordered the liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande Group, once the world’s largest real estate company. The failure could pose obstacles to China’s economic recovery.
Does Evergrande’s Collapse Threaten China’s Economy? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Europe – USA
(Chen Kuohsiang – ThinkChina) Growing anti-immigration sentiments in Europe and the US have worsened political conflicts and partisan rivalries, increasingly jeopardising the democratic system that the West is proud of. The intense surge in populism is one of the adverse effects.
Populism and anti-immigration fervour surges in the West, Politics News – ThinkChina
Near East
1 – (Shalom Lipner – Atlantic Council) The “day after” engine has left Gaza station without all passengers on board. Israel, which began transitioning in January to a lower-intensity phase of its military campaign against Hamas, remains reluctant to concretize its plans for the Gaza Strip’s future. Conceding the initiative to other interested parties is a terrible strategy for safeguarding Israel’s national interests.
2 – (Carmit Padan – Israel Democracy Institute) Israeli reserve soldiers are making unimaginable sacrifices to protect their country. To rise to the challenge of meeting the IDF’s expanded personnel needs, Israel’s policy solutions must be as diverse as are the reservists serving this nation. A “one-size-fits-all” compensation approach will not cut it.
A More Targeted Approach to IDF Reservist Compensation – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)
3 – (Meir Finkel – BESA Center) The occupation and holding of territory, which used to be a central component of the IDF’s war concept at all levels, became almost irrelevant during Israel’s many years of fighting terrorism and guerrillas in Gaza and Lebanon. But there are three reasons why it is a big mistake to discount the value of conquered territory.
4 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) Threats by Houthi rebels based in Yemen to slice a lattice of undersea cables in the Red Sea region, jeopardizing communications and financial data, are unrealistic, according to the commander of the Office of U.S. Naval Intelligence. Veiled threats were published on social media channels associated with the Iran-backed militant group in December and were later amplified by Hezbollah, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute. The posts featured maps of the area, including the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, where fiber-optic cables run, and chatter about international connectivity.
Houthi rebels present little threat to undersea cables, US admiral says (defensenews.com)
Nepal
(Harris Amjad – Lowy The Interpreter) Last month, on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement Summit, Nepal appealed to Russia “not to recruit Nepalese nationals into the country’s army and to help repatriate those who have already joined the forces”. According to data, at least 200 Nepalese youths have joined the Russian Army, with 12 already having lost their lives fighting in the war in Ukraine. In June last year, there were also reports that migrant youths from Nepal were joining the Wagner Group, the private military company involved in, among other conflicts, the Russia–Ukraine war. All these migrations have taken place through illegal channels as Nepal has no bilateral arrangements with Russia to provide soldiers.
Dying to work abroad: Why Nepalese migrants are fighting other people’s wars | Lowy Institute
Pakistan
1 – (Uzair Younus – Atlantic Council) Pakistan’s general election results showed that efforts to curb support for former Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently in prison, and his political party were not enough. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-backed candidates emerged as the largest bloc in parliament, winning 93 seats (out of 264). On February 13, the two parties that won the second and third share of seats announced that they would form a coalition government, excluding the PTI from power. Nonetheless, the strong election performance of PTI-affiliated candidates reveals an important emerging trend in Pakistani politics. Popular anger over skyrocketing inflation and growing repression, combined with younger voters entering the fray, played a key role in the results. But one cannot ignore the PTI’s use of technology – much of it not cutting edge – which has not only disrupted the traditional political status quo but also set a new benchmark for election campaigns across the globe.
2 – (Claude Rakisits – ASPI The Strategist) Pakistan’s elections on 8 February were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the fraudulent nature of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.
Pakistan: More instability coming down the road | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Papua New Guinea
In his first international engagement for the year, James Marape has made history as the first prime minister from Papua New Guinea (or any Pacific Island State) to address the Australian parliament. Marape’s speech concentrated on the shared history between the two countries, recognising Australia’s support from its colonial administration to the present day. Marape also spoke of PNG’s economic development, highlighting the growth of the economy from K80 billion to K111 billion, which has occurred under his watch since 2019.
The state of play in PNG: A momentous start to 2024 | Lowy Institute
Russia
1 – (Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The upcoming “Big Circle” (Bol’shoi Krug) meeting of Russia’s Cossack movement highlights their growing significance in Kremlin planning and national affairs, akin to the involvement of similar groups in Soviet-era politics. The meeting aims to unify the Cossacks around President Putin and discuss their strength as a national group. With its timing close to the elections, the meeting is also viewed as a platform to generate support for Putin’s presidential campaign. Holding a second Bol’shoi Krug meeting suggests that the Kremlin may have strategic plans involving the Cossack movement in the country’s future.
Cossacks Plan for February Meeting – Jamestown
2 – (Zuzanna Gwadera – IISS) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced on 18 January 2024 that Russia had rejected a United States proposal to renew bilateral arms-control talks.
Russia rejects US call for arms-control talks (iiss.org)
Russia – Central Asia
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s rhetoric toward Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, has become increasingly hostile since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The rhetoric from Russia includes threats of invasion and annexation, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before its invasion. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian media has escalated its attacks on Central Asian states. The hostile rhetoric and actions from Russia have eroded trust and relations between Central Asian countries and Russia. The invasion of Ukraine has shattered the perception of Russia as a reliable ally among Central Asian elites.
Russian Rhetoric Toward Central Asia Grows Increasingly Hostile – Jamestown
Ukraine
(Marti Flacks, Caitlin Chin-Rothmann, Lauren Burke, Julia Brock, Iryna Tiasko – Center for Strategic & International Studies) As the government of Ukraine and its international partners look to the postwar reconstruction process, Ukraine’s rapid and widespread digitalization presents both innovative opportunities and unprecedented risks
USA
1 – (Courtney Albon – Defense News) The Space Development Agency and the Missile Defense Agency launched six satellites Wednesday designed to demonstrate the ability to track high-speed missile threats. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carried the satellites, four of which support the Space Development Agency’s constellation of tracking spacecraft and two are part of the Missile Defense Agency’s Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor program, or HBTSS.
Pentagon launches six satellites to boost missile tracking capability (defensenews.com)
2 – (Lauren C. Williams – Defense One) The Navy is using automation and data analytics to boost cyberdefenses for its unclassified networks—while making cyber operators’ jobs a little easier, the head of Fleet Cyber Command said Tuesday.
No phishing: Navy uses automation, data analytics to protect seagoing networks – Defense One
3 – (Erich Wagner – Defense One) The leader of the nation’s largest federal employee union had a blunt message for labor officials across the country at the opening of the American Federation of Government Employees’ legislative conference Monday: your jobs—and democracy itself—may be at stake. “This year, everything is on the line,” said AFGE National President Everett Kelley.
Trump’s plan to purge federal employees draws fire – Defense One
4 – (Patrick Tucker – Defense One) U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia wants to put a nuclear weapon in space, according to multiple reports that emerged Wednesday after the chair of the House Intelligence Committee publicly urged the White House to declassify information about a “destabilizing foreign military capability” constituting a “serious national security threat.”
Is Russia putting an anti-satellite nuke in space? – Defense One
5 – (Qinglian He – ThinkChina) The world is now looking at Texas — the Lone Star State — and its impact on the direction of the Biden-Harris administration. At 1pm on 25 January, the Biden government ordered Texas to pull out the Texas National Guard within 24 hours from the US-Mexico borders, and allow Border Patrol agents to enter and remove the razor wire fencing that Texas officials placed along part of the Republican-governed state’s border with Mexico to deter illegal border crossings.
The fight over what US immigration policy should look like, Politics News – ThinkChina
Perspectives
Global Order – (David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) The global institutional architecture designed in the aftermath of World War II to ensure that disaster was never repeated is showing its age. The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are all struggling to contain geopolitical tensions amid challenges to the long-assumed primacy of a US-led West.
Global institutions struggling to contain tensions | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Global Order – (IISS) Renewed fighting between Israel and Hamas, a resurfaced Houthi missile threat, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the Arctic, turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa, coupled with Russia’s war on Ukraine that is grinding towards its third year created a highly volatile security environment in the past year.
The Military Balance 2024 | Chapter 1: Era of Insecurity (iiss.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
