Geostrategic magazine (december 15, 2023)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

Daily from global think tanks

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

2024

Council on Foreign Relations experts, looking ahead to 2024, highlight some of the most important trends to monitor, including power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, digital threats to elections and migrants at the US southern border

Visualizing 2024: Trends to Watch | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Cambodia

Heimkhemra Suy (East Asia Forum) writes that, from 1999 to 2019, Cambodia’s economy grew with important results both in terms of the growth rate and the five-fold increase in per capita income (from 323 to 1,621 dollars). But the country is experiencing underlying structural fragilities. Cambodia is highly exposed to external shocks and requires economic diversification

Cambodia’s economy must keep evolving | East Asia Forum

Climate Action

1 – Ben Welle, Anna Kustar, Thet Hein Tun and Cristina Albuquerque (World Resources Institute) write that the latest United Nations climate action report states that shifting more human mobility towards public transport is “essential” to curb climate change and is a key factor for equitable and sustainable development in cities around the world. Estimates say global public transport capacity will need to double by 2030 – in just seven years – if global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees C and the worst impacts of climate change are avoided.

The Current State of Public Transport as a Climate Solution | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

2 – Katrina McLaughlin, Ian Goldsmith, Nate Hausman, Alexander Dane (World Resources Institute) write that local action is critical to achieving national and global climate goals. Many public organizations in the United States are already addressing the challenge. Since 2018, local governments have purchased or installed more than 16 gigawatts of renewable energy. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 changed the landscape for local governments in accessing federal incentives for clean energy investments

5 Tips for Using the IRA’s Direct Pay Provision for Clean Energy | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

3 – Hashendra Wijesinha, Laia Barbarà (World Economic Forum) review the main results of COP28. In particular, the first Global Stock Take predicted a “transition” away from fossil fuels. The Authors highlight five points that are necessary to achieve the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement (taking stock of actions; tripling renewables, doubling efficiency; reshaping demand to slash emissions in agriculture; enabling a holistic nature and climate action agenda; addressing adaptation and supporting the most vulnerable)

COP28: What did it accomplish and what’s next? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

European Union – Chile

Lucía Dammert, José Ignacio Torreblanca (European Council on Foreign Relations) write that the European Union’s relations with Chile represent a test case for the EU’s ability to navigate the emerging multipolar order “à la carte”. Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper and the second largest producer of lithium. From Europe’s perspective, Chile could be a decisive partner in fueling the green transition. The EU already imports 80% of its lithium from Chile, a crucial dependency in the rapidly evolving global economy

Critical material: The EU’s and Chile’s new relationship in the multipolar world | ECFR

European Union – Moldova

Andrew Wilson (European Council on Foreign Relations) writes that Moldova’s recent local elections saw unprecedented Russian interference. Ahead of next year’s presidential elections, the EU should help Moldova counter these threats

Democracy under siege: Tackling Russian interference in Moldova | ECFR

European Union – Pacific

Frédéric Grare, Manisha Reuter (European Council on Foreign Relations) write that the Falepili Union treaty prioritizes Tuvalu’s urgent concerns about climate change. As the EU seeks to deepen relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific, it should adapt its offers to regional priorities

More than just a climate deal: The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty and the EU’s potential contribution to the Pacific | ECFR

Indonesia

Cahyo Prihadi (East Asia Forum) writes that Indonesia can achieve its goal of becoming a high-income developed country by 2045, thanks to favorable demographic trends. However, the country needs to invest in an innovative way in human capital, a fundamental resource. Indonesia has 270 million inhabitants, of which 147.7 million are workers

How workforce training is helping Indonesia modernise its economy | East Asia Forum

Near East

1 – Elliott Abrams, F. Gregory Gause III, Amr Hamzawy (Council on Foreign Relations) discuss the effects of the war between Israel and Hamas on the Gulf Arab countries that signed the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia-Israel relations and the future of Saudi Arabia’s Middle East policy Biden administration

Israel-Hamas War: Regional Ripple Effects | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

2 – Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Lisa Anderson, Salam Fayyad, Amos Yadlin (Council on Foreign Relations) discuss how the Hamas attack and Israel’s response have reshaped the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the risk of escalation, what the conflict will mean for the region

January/February 2023 Foreign Affairs Issue Launch: How the Israel-Hamas War Is Reshaping the Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

3 – Kelly Petillo (European Council on Foreign Relations) writes that Israel’s ground offensive threatens to push Palestinians out of Gaza and into neighboring Egypt. This would worsen an already dire humanitarian situation and risk destabilizing Egypt, an important European partner

Tipping point: The risks of Palestinian displacement for Egypt | ECFR

Quad

Neely Haby (Lowy The Interpreter) writes how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi likes to highlight the “practical dimension” of the Quad group, that is, working together in response to disasters, not just with the four members, but with countries across the Indo-Pacific region. The Quad must return to its roots and operationalize a framework for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Shifting Quad relief operations from theory to practice | Lowy Institute

South-South Trade – Africa

Andrew Mold (Brookings) writes that, although increasing, South-South trade is still overshadowed by North-North trade. In the Trade and Development Report 2022, UNCTAD economists recognized the changing structure of international trade over the past 25 years. The share of trade between developed economies has fallen by nearly 15% since 1995, having been replaced by growth in South-South trade, which increased by 14.1%. However, North-North trade (37.1%) still prevails over South-South trade (25%)

Why South-South trade is already greater than North-North trade—and what it means for Africa | Brookings

Ukraine – European Union

Peter Dickinson (Atlantic Council) writes that European leaders have decided to officially start accession negotiations with Ukraine. This decision represents a step towards Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union and a victory that reinvigorates the morale of Ukrainians

Historic breakthrough for Ukraine as EU agrees to begin membership talks – Atlantic Council

Ukraine – Russia

Roman Osadchuk (Atlantic Council) writes that a joint investigation by DFRLab and BBC Verify uncovered a covert Russian influence operation on TikTok that targeted former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and accused him of corruption. TikTok described it as the largest intelligence operation ever uncovered on the platform and attributed it to a covert operation based in Russia

Massive Russian influence operation targeted former Ukrainian defense minister on TikTok – DFRLab

Vietnam

David Dapice (East Asia Forum) writes that, in 2022, Vietnam recorded GDP growth of over 8%. In 2023, the government hoped that the Chinese and global economies would allow export-led growth to continue. Hopes have been tempered: the prime minister of Vietnam suggests growth of around 5%, which is close to the 4.7% estimated for 2023 by the International Monetary Fund. Exports fell 5.7% in the first 11 months of 2023. For an economy where exports nearly equal GDP, this creates a major growth problem

A slower 2023 and uncertain 2024 for Vietnam’s economy | East Asia Forum

The Global Eye