From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia, Australia-Southeast Asia, China-Myanmar, European Union-US, Global Economy, Indonesia-Indo Pacific, Kazakhstan-China-Kyrgizstan-Uzbekistan, Middle East, Morocco, Pacific, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), US, US-Iran
Australia
(Louise McCormick – The Strategist) Darwin’s proposed Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct is set to be the heart of a new integrated infrastructure network in the Northern Territory, larger and better than what currently exists in northern Australia. However, the project’s success depends on coordinated financial support between the Northern Territory and federal governments. More attention needs to be paid to the current model of federal funding, which risks limiting the project’s development and reducing its benefits. – Middle Arm project: the infrastructure enabler for Northern Territory development | The Strategist
Australia – Southeast Asia
(Hangga Fathana – The Interpreter) As Australians head to the polls on 3 May, the stakes for foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific are quietly profound. From where I sit in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, the debate in Australia around national security, alliances, and regional engagement is being watched with interest – and, at times, concern. Much has been made of the current government’s concept of strategic equilibrium – a worldview that seeks to maintain a region where “no country dominates and no country is dominated,” as Foreign Minister Penny Wong described it. This vision resonates deeply with many across Southeast Asia. It signals that Australia understands its place not as an external power, but as an integral part of the regional community. It suggests a sober, measured approach to foreign policy, especially in a time of rising nationalist sentiment and populist rhetoric globally. – Australia and Southeast Asia: Why strategic balance still matters | Lowy Institute
China – Myanmar
(Sydney Tucker – Stimson Center) As China assesses its role in the Myanmar conflict, cyber scam centers in Myanmar and across Southeast Asia have become a central concern for Chinese officials. These centers use human trafficking along the China-Myanmar and Thailand-Myanmar borders to secure forced labor, targeting victims in Asia, the United States, and Europe. They have emerged as a complicating factor for China in its relations with Myanmar. In the last two months, Beijing has prioritized cyber scam centers in discussions between Chinese and Burmese officials, as well as stepped up cooperation with Thailand on cross-border security where major scam compounds operate. China had previously mentioned cyber scam centers in policy conversations with Myanmar, but they only recently became a focal point, often falling below larger issues like the upcoming 2025 elections and Chinese-mediated peace talks. – Cyber Scam Centers: A Growing Flashpoint in China-Myanmar Relations • Stimson Center
European Union – US
(Erik Brattberg, Jacopo Pastorelli, Benjamin Schwab – Atlantic Council) In 2016, Europeans were taken by surprise when US President Donald Trump was elected and began challenging long-held assumptions about globalization and free trade. Consequently, the European Union was only able to respond to US tariffs in an ad-hoc manner. This time around, however, Brussels has prepared itself for a more contentious global economic order, developing an economic-security toolbox designed to deter third counties from “coercing” the continent. While the tools were mainly formed with China’s unfair trading practices in mind, the EU is now considering whether to use them in response to the Trump administration’s declaration of “economic independence” and its latest round of “liberation day” tariffs. As part of the EU’s “open strategic autonomy” strategy, the strongest card that the bloc has in its hand is the “anti-coercion instrument.” Confronted with Washington’s array of tariffs across three fronts—25 percent on automotive and car parts, 25 percent on steel and aluminum, and 20 percent “reciprocal” tariffs across the board—Brussels may soon be ready to play its newest ace. – The EU could respond to Trump’s tariffs with a new ‘anti-coercion instrument.’ Here’s what to know. – Atlantic Council
Global Economy
(Josh Lipsky – Atlantic Council) US President Donald Trump has launched a global economic war without any allies. That’s why—unlike previous economic crises in this century—there is no one coming to save the global economy if the situation starts to unravel. There is a model to deal with economic and financial crises over the past two decades, and it requires activating the Group of Twenty (G20) and relying on the US Federal Reserve to provide liquidity to a financial system under stress. Neither option will be available in the current challenge. First, the G20. The G20 was created by the United States and Canada in the late 1990s to bring rising economic powers such as China into the decision-making process and prevent another wave of debt crises like the Mexican peso crisis of 1994 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997. In 2008, as Lehman Brothers collapsed and financial markets around the world began to panic, then President George W. Bush called for an emergency summit of G20 leaders—the first time the heads of state and government from the world’s largest economies had convened. – No one is coming to save the global economy – Atlantic Council
Indonesia – Indo Pacific
(Mike Copage – The Strategist) Australian policymakers are vastly underestimating how climate change will disrupt national security and regional stability across the Indo-Pacific. A new ASPI report assesses the ways climate impacts could threaten Indonesia’s economic and security interests in the next decade, driving consequences across the Indo-Pacific at a crucial time for both the country and the region. If we fail to anticipate and adapt to accumulating climate-driven risks, we risk stumbling blindly into crises that could lead to severe losses in security, finance and life. Indonesia is one of Australia’s nearest neighbours and will play an increasingly important role in regional affairs in the years ahead. We must understand and address the full implications of climate change for Indonesia and, by extension, our shared future. – Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia in 2035 | The Strategist
Kazakhstan – China – Kyrgizstan – Uzbekistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan launched a new container rail service linking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Poland, reinforcing its position as a vital transit hub through Eurasia. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a part of the PRC’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, has emerged as a competitor to routes through Kazakhstan as a more direct path to Europe. Kazakhstan is investing heavily in rail infrastructure, particularly along the Middle Corridor, to enhance cargo capacity and reduce delivery times between the PRC and Europe. – China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Emerges as Competitor to Kazakhstan’s Rail Network – Jamestown
Middle East
(The Soufan Center) Israeli forces are expanding their control over neighboring territories in an effort to prevent further attacks by hostile forces, but in the process complicating conflict resolution efforts. The renewed expansion of the Israeli military presence in Gaza has not advanced U.S.-led efforts to end the conflict there. Israeli penetration into Syrian territory threatens to alienate and potentially destabilize the post-Assad government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and has increased tensions with Türkiye. Israel’s refusal to withdraw forces from several strategic locations in south Lebanon might hinder efforts by U.S. officials and Lebanon’s leaders to disarm Lebanese Hezbollah. – Israel Expands its Security Zones on All Fronts – The Soufan Center
(Mirette F. Mabrouk – Middle East Institute) There is a phrase in Arabic that loosely translates as “death and destruction,” but is significantly more subtle and expressive than the terse wording in English. It implies that loss of life is only a beginning and that the tragedy will be compounded by economic devastation — in essence, that death is just the start of one’s troubles. It is an apt metaphor for the conflict in Gaza. Apart from the huge death toll and an Israeli bombardment that has left less than 8% of Gaza’s housing units and 30% of all structures still standing, the economic devastation has lapped over the borders, most notably Egypt’s, which is currently dealing with the resulting economic fallout and sustained diplomatic pressure. – Pressuring Egypt over Gaza will not work and is not in the US interest | Middle East Institute
Morocco
(Mohammed Mahmoud – Middle East Institute) Climate variability is becoming a key factor in shaping economic stability, agricultural productivity, and water security worldwide. Periods of prolonged drought and sudden shifts in precipitation can have far-reaching consequences, particularly for countries that rely heavily on natural water sources for farming and economic growth. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, there is a need to navigate both the immediate impacts of climate change and the long-term strategies required for climate resilience. Finding the right balance between short-term relief and sustainable adaptation is a fundamental challenge for economies dependent on agriculture and water availability. – The impact of climate variability on Morocco’s agriculture | Middle East Institute
Pacific
(Miranda Booth, Henrietta McNeill, Genevieve Quirk – The Strategist) In the Pacific, the rush among partner countries to be seen as the first to assist after disasters has become heated as part of ongoing geopolitical contest. As partners compete for strategic influence in the region, humanitarian interests should not be sidelined. Instead, partners to Pacific island countries can advance both humanitarian and political interests by prioritising humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) initiatives that are Pacific-led, resilience-based and—ideally—Pacific-owned. – Humanitarian assistance in the Pacific should be led by Pacific countries | The Strategist
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Both Kyiv and Moscow say they are not interested in “freezing” the conflict in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow insists that any accord must address the “root causes” of the conflict, and Kyiv says that Russia must pull back from its advances into Ukrainian territory. A freeze is the only probable scenario in which conflict could be quieted in the short term, a timetable that the third participant in these negotiations, the United States, says it is committed to and an arrangement that it would likely declare to be a peace. If the conflict is “frozen,” neither side is likely to refrain from force, Ukraine in defense of its national existence and Russia in support of the Kremlin’s plans. After a short interval, the conflict would likely break out again, possibly even more violently than it is now. – ‘Freezing’ Ukrainian Conflict Will Not Bring Peace – Jamestown
US
(Chris Miller – Brookings) The 20th century generally saw a rise in global trade liberalization and a decline in the use of tariffs. Now, after two presidential terms of elevated tariffs, the second Trump administration has undertaken a dramatic next step—measures that Brookings Vice President and Director of the Economic Studies program Ben Harris called, “one of the most consequential economic policy changes of my lifetime,” at an event on April 3, 2025, hosted by the Brookings Institution. The event, “Trump’s reciprocal tariffs: What are they? How will they work?” featured an introduction from Harris followed by a panel discussion with former Deputy United States Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi (Evercore), Mary Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics), and former Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economic Affairs Kelly Ann Shaw (Hogan Lovells). The panel was moderated by Ana Swanson of the New York Times. Below are key takeaways from the event. – Key takeaways on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs from recent Brookings event
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Depending on which half of the Financial Times’ opinion page you read today, US President Donald Trump is either an American savior or a global godfather shaking down allies. Call it piquant editorial juxtaposition. The Financial Times places an op-ed by Peter Navarro, Trump’s tariff czar, on how his boss’s tariffs “will fix a broken system” directly above columnist Gideon Rachman’s noticing of “a distinct whiff of Don Corleone” in the Oval Office’s approach to trade. – ‘How did things ever get so far? It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary.’ – Atlantic Council
US – Iran
(The Soufan Center) Iran and the U.S. are moving toward nuclear negotiations, even as Trump builds up forces that could be used for military action against Iranian installations. Responding to U.S. coercive diplomacy, including the buildup as well as maximum economic sanctions pressure, Iran has accepted new negotiations with the Trump team. The pathway to a successful negotiation is complicated by entrenched “red lines” drawn by Tehran and Washington. Iran is threatening regional bases used by U.S. forces, as well as U.S. regional allies, should Trump decide to use military action to stop Iran’s nuclear program. – Amid U.S. Threats, Iran Moves Toward Negotiations with Trump – The Soufan Center
