From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Alaska; ASEAN; Australia; Bangladesh-India-China; Houthis; India-Sri Lanka-United Arab Emirates; Indonesia; Southeast Asia; South Korea; Thailand; Turkiye-PKK-Iraq; US-China; US-Nepal; US-North Korea; US Tariffs
Alaska
(Aruni Ranaweera, Tessa Varvares – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure. For example: permafrost thaw-induced damage to hospitals, roads, and runways has disrupted the delivery of critical medical services and supplies; destabilization of housing and water infrastructure has created hazardous living conditions for children and families; thaw-induced disruptions to fishing, hunting, and subsistence practices have threatened food security and imposed barriers to practicing traditional cultures. These outcomes are not inevitable or irreversible. Rather, strategic investments by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state agencies, Tribal government, and other community-based entities can help to bolster financial and technical assistance programs and infrastructure that will better enable those affected by permafrost thaw to adapt and build resilience to public health disruptions. – Permafrost Thaw in Alaska: An Overlooked Climate-Health Crisis | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
ASEAN
(Melinda Martinus – FULCRUM) The State of Southeast Asia Survey 2025, published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, underscores ASEAN’s ongoing importance — while also revealing a dip in perceptions of its influence. Nevertheless, survey respondents’ expectations of ASEAN’s role in economic integration and multilateral diplomacy affirm its continued relevance in an increasingly fractured global landscape. ASEAN has long seen itself as a stabilising force, but the survey shows a slight decline in confidence in the bloc’s ability to uphold international law and a rules-based order. This survey was conducted on 3 January – 15 February 2025, coinciding with a leadership transition in the United States, a prolonged economic slowdown in China, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. This latest poll found that 23.1 per cent of respondents trust ASEAN’s leadership in this area, down from 26.9 per cent in 2024. Still, ASEAN remains the second most trusted actor after the US (26.5 per cent), which is seen as the top defender of global governance. Trust in ASEAN’s political and strategic influence has also fallen, with only 15.6 per cent of respondents believing it has substantial sway, down from 20.0 per cent last year. Nevertheless, ASEAN enjoys the most positive overall perception among the major powers such as the US and China, with 69.9 per cent of respondents welcoming its influence, indicating strong regional support for its diplomatic role. – ASEAN’s Image Fades but Expectations Remain High | FULCRUM
Australia
(Henry Campbell, Raelene Lockhorst – The Strategist) Australia’s east coast is facing a gas crisis, as the country exports most of the gas it produces. Although it’s a major producer, Australia faces a risk of domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortfalls as soon as 2028. Domestic price caps, intended to keep residential energy costs down, makes exporting gas more profitable. So importing gas, and therefore building LNG import terminals, appears to be the policy of choice for the Victorian government. However, relying on imported LNG will create a vulnerability in energy security. – The gas plan that’s sailing Australia into strategic peril | The Strategist
Bangladesh – India – China
(Mohammad Imon Kazi – The Interpreter) India is approaching Bangladesh’s new caretaker government with caution. Since Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as Chief Advisor in August 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not held extended talks with him. Their only interaction was a short meeting on the sidelines of a regional summit in April. While India has stated support for Bangladesh’s democratic process, behind the scenes, Indian officials are reportedly less happy, critical of “mischievous” and “politically motivated” messages from the Bangladeshi side about the Modi-Yunus meeting. – Why Bangladesh is courting China – and what India can do about it | Lowy Institute
Houthis
(Fabian Hinz – IISS) On 15 March, the United States returned to launching significant airstrikes aimed at degrading the Houthis’ military capabilities and bolstering freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. President Donald Trump, in comments on social media, identified Iran as continuing to enable Houthi attacks. Trump’s comments play into a long-standing debate on the extent to which the Houthis operate as an instrument of Iranian policy. While some describe the group as a mere proxy, reliant on Iranian weapons transfers, others emphasise its political autonomy and capacity for local arms production. Houthi command and decision-making structures remain opaque, making it difficult to assess the degree of political and operational influence Iran exerts. However, the relatively well-documented nature of the Houthi missile and uninhabited-aerial-vehicle (UAV) arsenal, employed in attacks against Israel and in the anti-shipping campaign in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, offers insight into the material dimension of the relationship. – Made in Yemen? Assessing the Houthis’ arms-production capacity
India – Sri Lanka – United Arab Emirates
(Rushali Saha – The Interpreter) Trincomalee – a strategically-located port city on the east coast of Sri Lanka – has ambition to transform into an energy hub under a three-way deal signed between India, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates. The agreement reportedly sets out a “framework for collaboration on a range of infrastructure and energy projects”, which includes the construction of a pipeline between India and Sri Lanka. According to the Emirates News Agency, the agreement also includes the “possible development” of a new refinery project. – Three-way energy play: The India-Sri Lanka-UAE deal in Trincomalee | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Najwa Abdullah – FULCRUM) After the 2024 simultaneous regional elections (pilkada serentak), 2025 marks the beginning of Jakarta’s journey into its “post-capital” future. This transitional moment demands a re-examination of the city’s past leadership to gauge how it can move forward. In this regard, former governor Anies Baswedan’s (2017-2022) leadership offers valuable lessons and cautionary insights into navigating Jakarta’s urban woes. Like many other capitals and major cities, Jakarta’s development has been intricately enmeshed in elite power struggles and wealth accumulation strategies. As Panjaitan, Ponkani, and Darchen note, during Suharto’s 31-year regime (1967-1998), the private sector became a key partner of the government in financing urban development projects. This partnership not only prioritised profitable projects but also left the government with little control over wealth redistribution, leading to rampant inequalities. In the post-Suharto era, the shift towards democratic elections has turned Jakarta’s governorship into a stepping stone to the presidency. One unintended dynamic is that this often overshadows the pursuit of long-term urban solutions. – Reassessing Anies Baswedan’s Legacy in Jakarta: Institutionalising Collaboration to Address Urban Challenges | FULCRUM
(Yosephine Uliarta, Andi Mohammad Ilham – East Asia Forum) Indonesia’s proposed third tax amnesty contradicts global trends toward stronger tax enforcement and transparency. Past amnesties showed diminishing returns, with participation dropping 74 per cent between rounds. Rather than normalising noncompliance and eroding trust, Indonesia should focus on sustainable reforms targeting high-net-worth individuals who benefited most from previous amnesties. This approach would strengthen domestic tax integrity while aligning with international efforts to create fairer taxation systems and combat global tax evasion. – Indonesia needs real tax reform, not another amnesty | East Asia Forum
Southeast Asia
(Gloria Lin – FULCRUM) The importance of rare earth elements (REE) in high-tech products has made this industry a geopolitical focal point. Many developed countries in the West are concerned about China’s dominance in the industry. Today, China accounts for about 70% of global rare earth ore extraction and 90% of rare earth ore processing. Many countries have sought a strategic response to reduce their dependence on China as a source of REE. Can Southeast Asian countries contribute to REE supply chain diversification? As China depletes its reserves and new REE mining frontiers open up in Africa and South America, China is widening explorations and has identified potential new sites in Southeast Asia for new ventures. Currently, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have a sizable presence in the global REE supply chain. The viability of these countries as alternative sources of REE hinges on their mining capacity, the scale and composition of their REE reserves as well as their operations — whether upstream, mid-stream or downstream — along the entire REE supply chain. The REE supply chain stretches from the upstream mining of REE ores to the downstream production of inputs for the manufacturing sector. REEs comprise 15 elements (otherwise known as lanthanides) as well as scandium and yttrium that exhibit similar chemical properties. Refined REEs can be incorporated into a variety of high-technology products. China has established technical superiority in various processes, for example, the use of the solvent extraction process at the separation stage. – Southeast Asia’s Potential Role in Rare Earth Elements Diversification | FULCRUM
South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) On April 4, four months after the imposition of martial law, South Korea’s Constitutional Court announced its decision, anonymously upholding former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment on all five grounds. These included the unconstitutional declaration of martial law, seizing the National Election Commission and arresting its personnel without a warrant, the takeover of the National Assembly by the military and police, and ordering the arrest of politicians and lawyers. The court’s decision came just one week after it overturned the impeachment of former prime minister and acting President Han Duck-soo. The decision has brought much-needed relief, ending the country’s political logjam and paving the way for a fresh political process to restart. As the acting chief justice of the Constitutional Court, Moon Hyung-bae pronounced the judgment on behalf of the bench. All the eight judges on the bench upheld the impeachment on all the five grounds laid by the National Assembly. The court said that Yoon’s action was “a violation of the warrant requirement and provisions in the constitution”. It also opined on the deployment of armed forces and the crackdown on opposition, saying that “he [the respondent] violated his constitutional duty as their commander in chief,” and “infringed on the freedom of activities of political parties”. – Yoon impeachment saga might be over, but South Korea remains a society divided
Thailand
(Juthathip Jongwanich, Archanun Kohpaiboon – FULCRUM) Thailand has ambitious plans to expand into higher-end segments of the semiconductor manufacturing chain such as chip design and wafer fabrication. There are, however, significant challenges ahead which require good governance and oversight as well as policy certainty. On 25 October 2024, the National Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics Industry Policy Committee of Thailand (known as the National Semiconductor Board, NSB) was established to promote the semiconductor and advanced electronics industries. Thailand’s semiconductor sector is concentrated on assembling and packaging operations, which are much smaller in size and less lucrative compared to the overall global semiconductor chain (which consists of higher-end activities such as chip design and wafer fabrication). Chaired by the prime minister, the NSB is composed of numerous ministers, key economic government agencies and the president of the Federation of Thai Industries. – Thailand’s New Semiconductor Strategy: Ambitious but Challenging | FULCRUM
Turkiye – PKK – Iraq
(Emirates Policy Center) A potential settlement between Turkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) raises significant questions about the future of political and security dynamics in Iraq, particularly in the Kurdistan Region and Sinjar, where tensions are escalating between the Iraqi army and PKK-affiliated forces. While dissolving the PKK may contribute to ending military confrontations, it could also reshape the role of Kurdish forces in the region and redefine their relations with Turkiye, with the potential emergence of new factions and splinter groups that would keep Iraq a theater for Turkish-Kurdish conflict. Kurdish leaders worry that Abdullah Ocalan’s forfeiting of options for an independent or federal state as a solution to the Kurdish issue – favoring instead integration into a unified state project – could negatively impact Iraqi Kurdish parties’ vision of the Kurdish region within the Iraqi federal system. Israel is concerned that a resolution of the Kurdish conflict could enhance Turkiye’s regional influence, while Iran may be uncomfortable with the dissolution of the PKK, as it has historically leveraged the group to pressure Turkiye. Consequently, Tehran might seek to obstruct the settlement process through indirect means. – Emirates Policy Center | Turkiye’s Impending Settlement with the PKK and Its Impact on Iraq
US – China
(John Edwards – The Interpreter) What is next in the US trade conflict with the rest of the world? At 25%, US tariffs on most auto imports will see US car prices rising unless those tariffs, too, are paused. Otherwise, with the suspension of “reciprocal” tariff increases on other countries, the dispute has essentially mutated to one between China and the United States. In good times, a million containers from China land every month in US ports, each packed with furniture, toys, home and garden appliances, computers, phones, games consoles, batteries and memory chips. Unless and until there are more tariff exemptions, much of that trade will soon stop. Though Trump and his officials say they are looking at later, separate tariffs on technology imports, for now smart phones, computers and similar products will be tariffed at 20%. Imports of those goods from China will continue. Most of the remaining three quarters of China goods exports will face US tariffs over 100%, a level designed to extinguish trade – What’s next in the US trade conflict? | Lowy Institute
US – Nepal
(Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) On 14 February 2025, Kathmandu was informed of the freeze on all payments related to the US$500-million Nepal Compact of the US government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation. This followed the executive order passed by the Trump 2.0 administration in January, putting a 90-day pause on all foreign assistance programmes of the United States. During the years prior, the MCC Nepal Compact had been mired in political controversy since its signing in September 2017 and ratification by the Nepal Parliament in February 2022. This brief analyses the factors that fuel Washington’s interests in Nepal and explores the reasons for the opposition to the MCC compact. It ponders the impact of Nepal’s decision to engage with the US on its relationships with its neighbours. – The MCC Debate and U.S.-Nepal Ties in Flux
US – North Korea
(Alexander K. Bollfrass, Chelsey Wiley – IISS) Speaking at a Senate hearing on 25 March, United States’ Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard assessed that there is a strong likelihood that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017. Although North Korea’s nuclear programme has become a major focus for the second Trump administration, the direction of US policy is unclear. President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the DPRK as a ‘nuclear power’, prompting speculation about a potential US recognition of Pyongyang’s nuclear status, while White House officials have continued to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to denuclearisation, stating that ‘President Trump will pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea’. Meanwhile, South Korean officials stress that denuclearisation is vital for both regional and global stability, cautioning that a shift in US policy could empower Pyongyang and weaken international non-proliferation efforts at large. North Korea is a nuclear-armed state in everything but formal legal status. Since withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003, Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests, refining its warhead designs. It is now assessed to have approximately 50 warheads alongside a growing collection of missiles, and has flight-tested several intercontinental-ballistic-missile designs capable of reaching the continental US. It has continued to make progress in this area despite years of sanctions and diplomatic pressure applied via mechanisms such as the Agreed Framework and Six-Party Talks. A resumption of DPRK nuclear tests might force the US to commit to a clear policy, with one potential option being to accept Pyongyang as a nuclear weapons state. – Denuclearisation vs recognition: options for US policy on North Korea
US Tariffs
(Christopher Findlay – East Asia Forum) US President Donald Trump’s April 2025 reciprocal tariffs aim to boost US manufacturing but will likely provoke considerable risks for the United States and the global economy. The tariffs will disrupt global supply chains, provoke retaliation and weaken US competitiveness. Enforcement is complex and contradicts goals like reducing bureaucracy and immigration while financial instability, asset losses and political backlash from retirees will undermine domestic support. Global trade may also shift away from the United States, diminishing its leadership. With tightening credit and delayed economic benefits, the policy’s internal contradictions and timing mismatch threaten its sustainability before any intended gains can materialise. – Global reactions threaten the sustainability of Trump tariffs | East Asia Forum
