COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
China – Australia
(Andrew Chubb – East Asia Forum) Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia in June 2024 is seen as a sign of China’s intent to mend political and economic tensions. But the continued imprisonment of Australian writer and businessman Yang Hengjun suggests that regime security is still the top priority for China. Yang’s suspended death sentence contrasts with the 2023 release of another Australian journalist Cheng Lei, a warning perhaps by Chinese security services to their own people.
Regime security trumps relationships for Beijing | East Asia Forum
China – Taiwan – Vatican
(Abhishank Mishra, Ananya Sharma – Lowy The Interpreter) For close to eight decades, the Vatican has maintained formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Despite according de-facto recognition to the People’s Republic of China based on its pre-existing ties, the Vatican has persistently assured Taiwan of its support. However, in a bid to make headway in its relationship with PRC, Vatican has also asserted that its recognition of Taiwan is not antithetical to this relationship with China and that it does not consider Taiwan as an independent political actor.
China-Taiwan, and a Vatican conversion | Lowy Institute
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Danielle Lynn Goh – RSIS) Climate change and global warming are adversely impacting the environment, and, in turn, human health. Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable. ASEAN policymakers must prioritise regional cooperation to address these challenges. ASEAN’s One Health approach is a good starting point.
ASEAN One Health Efforts: Tackling the Intersections of Climate Change and Health – RSIS
(Namita Vikas – World Economic Forum): Climate risks can affect business performance through asset damage, operational disruptions and reduced cash flows, ultimately impacting the ability to repay debt and company valuation. Financial institutions must manage climate risks as a step towards transitioning to a low-carbon portfolio. They can safeguard against losses and capitalize on opportunities by integrating climate risks into risk management frameworks.
Climate risks: 3 strategies for financial institutions | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Tim Lenton – World Economic Forum) Climate action is moving too slowly and too incrementally to hit the Paris Climate Agreement target. To protect lives and livelihoods globally, action must now focus on meeting positive tipping points that cascade benefits once hit. The biggest positive tipping point would be to adopt a better measure of progress than growth of GDP.
Positive tipping points: a credible way to hit climate goals | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Lorenzo Chelleri – Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) With hundreds of cities declaring climate emergencies, there is little evidence about successful climate adaptation and its upscaling. In parallel to the case for adaptation, there is also a distinct need to mitigate climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation, a third concept – resilience (and resilience thinking) – is a perspective that can scrutinise adaptation and tie it to mitigation. Which adaptation, to what, and how do we measure the success or fallacy of adaptations to climate change in cities?
The need for (which) adaptation to climate change in cities? | CIDOB,
European Union
(Sophia Besch and Katrine Westgaard – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has alerted European leaders that their armed forces are not ready for war. Recognizing this reality, they are responding by increasing their defense budgets, purchasing new weapons systems, and ramping up defense industrial production capacity. But lessons from the battlefield in Ukraine are also showing European militaries that they can no longer ignore long-standing manpower challenges. In a war of attrition, Ukraine has struggled to recruit enough troops to match Russia’s rate of mobilization. Meanwhile, Europe’s armed forces have failed for years to meet their recruitment goals and make military service attractive enough to retain their troops. This has revived a debate over the usefulness of conscription.
(Maria Gargano, Emilia Pauwels – EGMONT) Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space – Egmont Institute
France
(Claire Rioult – ASPI The Strategist) France’s foreign policy is likely to hold steady, at least in the short term, despite the surprising outcome of its elections finalised in a second round on Sunday, 7 July. The failure of the National Rally, a far right party close to Russia and Hungary, to gain a majority in France’s lower house of parliament comes as a major relief for the country’s partners in the European Union and NATO. Founded in 1972 by nationalists and ex-members of the Waffen SS, the party, led by Marine Le Pen, has done its best to make itself presentable in the past decade, but many in France still see it for what it truly is: Vladimir Putin’s stooge.
(FDD) The leader of France’s main far-left party pledged on July 7 to grant “immediate recognition of the State of Palestine” following a powerful showing by a coalition of left-wing organizations in the second and final round of parliamentary elections.
(Rémi Daniel – INSS) The results of the elections for the French National Assembly were a big surprise for all the analysts. Instead of a victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party (extreme right), the left bloc, whose largest party is that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (extreme left), came in first.
The Elections in France: Surprise and Uncertainty | INSS
(Sebastien Maillard – Chatham House) The far right RN may have failed to take power, but France’s political institutions, its place in the world, its financial position and its fragmented society will all be affected by a hung parliament.
Global Economy
(Alejo Czerwonko – World Economic Forum) Independent central banks are able to enact policies to tame inflation and ensure price stability without political interference. If central banks give in to politicized criticism or advice, it could result in short-term monetary policy decisions that may harm people’s finances and restrict entrepreneurship and job creation. In the past, emerging markets have shown the dangers of allowing monetary policy to become politicized – today’s independent central banks should remember those experiences and remain impartial when setting interest rates to manage inflation and price stability.
Charting the rise of central bank independence over decades | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Global Order
(Elliot Silverberg – Foreign Policy Research Institute) As war rages in Ukraine, the logical step for the United States has been to revitalize its security cooperation with NATO. This is the project that President Joe Biden’s administration has skillfully orchestrated since February 2022. But waiting in the wings of the Euro-Atlantic alliance—and requiring renewed clarity and focus—is America’s pacing threat of China.
Japan
(Yuri Okina – East Asia Forum) The traditional corporate culture in Japan, anchored on lifetime employment and a seniority-based wage system, is gradually being modernised, influenced by the growth strategies under the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Policymakers are focusing on promoting upskilling and labour mobility, while companies are raising wages to retain talent and compete with global firms. The increased dynamism of the Japanese labour market could contribute to the long-term growth of the Japanese economy.
Japan’s jobs market on the way to modernisation | East Asia Forum
(Hiroshi Ono – East Asia Forum) The traditional Japanese ideal worker model is becoming unsustainable due to shifts in the labour force. This model, characterised by lifetime employment, long hours and unwavering loyalty, is struggling to adapt to a shrinking population and greater diversity. Companies are finding it difficult to attract and retain talent, as fewer young people aspire to lifelong employment and more value flexibility. To remain competitive, Japanese companies must challenge their assumptions and embrace a more inclusive and adaptable approach to human resource management.
The rise and fall of the ideal worker model in Japan | East Asia Forum
Japan – ASEAN – Myanmar
(Sarah Soh – RSIS) A delegation comprising representatives from Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) and senior political leaders from the Karen, Karenni, and Chin ethnic armed organisations embarked on a week-long visit to Tokyo in May this year. The Myanmar representatives held a joint news conference and met Japan’s Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Masahiro Komura. A post-meeting statement released by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) noted the “exchange of views on the current situation in Myanmar” as well as the continuation of Japan’s efforts to “find a way out of the current impasse through dialogue with various stakeholders in Myanmar”.
IP24057 | Japan as ASEAN’s Diplomatic Partner in the Myanmar Crisis – RSIS
Japan – Taiwan
(Eleanor Shiori Hughes – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Japan has focused on increasing ties with Taiwan in response to changing regional power dynamics. A key question is if the new Taiwanese leadership will be able to sustain the momentum behind this partnership.
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Kelly Campa, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Siddhant Kishore, Marcus Mildenberger, and Nicholas Carl – ISW) Iran-Russia cooperation: Iran is expanding its domestic drone and missile production capacities, which would enable further Iranian military support to Russia and the Axis of Resistance – Iran Domestic Politics: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be associating himself with members of the moderate Hassan Rouhani administration, which was in power 2013-21 – Gaza Strip: Israel and international mediators are weighing options for interdicting Hamas weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.
Iran Update, July 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(FDD) Despite predictions in several Western news outlets that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, will “soften” the Islamic Republic’s “absolutist foreign policy,” among his first acts upon assuming his new role was a statement reaffirming Tehran’s full support for its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.
New Iranian President Praises Hezbollah ‘Resistance’ Against ‘Illegitimate Zionist Regime’ (fdd.org)
(FDD) Turkey is open to repairing ties with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad more than a decade after severing diplomatic relations with Damascus at the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. On July 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he is prepared to invite Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin — a backer of the Syrian regime — to Turkey to begin a “new process” of normalization efforts. Erdogan told Turkish media on July 7 that Ankara “will extend” the invitation to Assad “at any time.”
Turkey Open to Hosting Syrian Leader for Normalization Talks (fdd.org)
(FDD) IDF Begins Counterterror Operation in Gaza City at UNRWA Headquarters – IDF Eliminates Member of Hezbollah Rocket and Missile Unit in Overnight Strike – IDF Troops Kill More Than 30 Terror Operatives in Rafah; Dozens More Killed in Shejaiya – IDF Eliminates Key Operative in Hezbollah’s Air Defense Unit, Hezbollah Launches Numerous Strikes on Israel
Israel SitRep: July 8, 2024 (fdd.org)
(Kobi Michael – INSS) The risk of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, along with the need for significant changes within it—preconditions for its rehabilitation, its return to the Gaza Strip, and the creation of conditions for a political settlement based on the principle of two states—in order to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia and end the war in Gaza—require a different approach than what has been accepted in the past. In part, the establishment of two or three Palestinian cities (such as Rawabi, north of Ramallah), and the subsequent replication of this model in the Gaza Strip as a component of designing a new regional architecture, could provide an answer to a series of challenges. The successful implementation of the proposed megaproject will encourage additional projects of similar scale and significance in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, laying the foundation for changing the Palestinian and regional system, beyond just the Palestinian system itself.
Enhancing the Palestinian Authority by Building Cities as Part of a New Regional Architecture | INSS
(INSS) Recently, the public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah. This article focuses on the severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war. The analysis puts forward the need to carefully consider the risks posed by such a war to the civilian sphere, especially as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues.
How Would a Full-Scale War with Hezbollah Affect the Resilience of Israel’s Civilian Front? | INSS
(Orna Mizrahi – INSS) The escalation in the exchange of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah following the assassinations of senior Hezbollah officials and the organization’s relatively measured but unusual responses reflect that Hezbollah is sticking to its chosen strategy: a war of attrition below the threshold of war, while trying to create clear response equations with Israel.
An Opportunity to Translate Military Achievements Against Hezbollah Into a Strategic Shift | INSS
(Udi Dekel – INSS) The Israeli government has decided to formulate a package of measures in response to the Palestinian Authority’s diplomatic-legal campaign against Israel in various forums on the international stage. Most of the measures, however, would cause more harm than benefit. Afterall, they will not persuade the Palestinian Authority to change its confrontational policy vis-à-vis Israel nor will they diminish the international legitimacy the PA enjoys. At the same time, the proposed measures increase the risk of Israel’s significant international isolation and ignore the warnings of the defense establishment regarding the danger of further escalation of the security situation in Judea and Samaria and the ramifications should the Palestinian Authority reach a state of dysfunction in terms of security and economy.
Israel’s Response to the Diplomatic-Legal Campaign Waged by the Palestinian Authority | INSS
(Eran Ortal – BESA Center) Israeli history must be retold as a sequence of three long historical wars. The Iron Swords War does not stand on its own. The campaign in Gaza is a critical transition stage, both conceptual and practical, during which Israel is moving from defense to offense in a long war with Iran’s proxies. To realize its achievements, Israel needs a pause of a few years during which the strategy and military power for the offensive will be formulated. True learning is required at the political and military levels, and national reconciliation is required. Decisive emergency steps will have to be taken to build a military power that is more suitable to the broader war.
How to Win the Thirty Years’ War with Iran (besacenter.org)
(Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann and Andrew Fox – Australian Institute for International Affairs) War between Israel and Lebanon may be inevitable. What might Western support for Israel look like and how might Israel mitigate Hezbollah’s strengths and the threats of regional escalation?
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) The snap elections in Iran called upon due to the untimely passing of the Islamic Republic’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sprung a surprise result. Pro-reforms candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won the run-off poll contested against hardliner Saeed Jalili in an electoral process that saw some of the lowest turnouts since 1979.
An unassuming ‘reformist’ takes centre stage in Iran (orfonline.org)
NATO
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) NATO leaders this week confront three simultaneous but underestimated threats, none of them explicitly on their agenda. These threats are: (1) considerably increased coordination, particularly in the defense-industrial realm, among adversarial autocracies; (2) continued and growing weaknesses among democracies; and (3) insufficient recognition among NATO’s thirty-two members of the gravity of the historic moment, reflected in their still-inadequate backing for Ukraine.
The NATO Summit faces three simultaneous threats – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council) Over the past seventy-five years, NATO has established its place among the most powerful military alliances in history. But how will it stay fit for the future?
(Breaking Defense) Ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Washington, Breaking Defense has collected exclusive opinion pieces from key defense officials along the alliance’s northern border — the Arctic, where Russia and China are increasingly active. Below, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence of Norway, lays out how he views the threat environment in Europe.
Norway’s Chief of Defence: Allies are more than friends, in every direction – Breaking Defense
(Lee Ferran, Aaron Mehta – Breaking Defense) Armed with a marker and a white board, Estonia’s chief of defense jotted out what looked like gibberish, but to his mind was a simple algorithm that held the future of his country in the balance — a “formula,” Gen. Martin Herem said, for “when Russia is coming.”
(Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) After months of delays, NATO has adopted its first counter-drone doctrine, testing its tenets in an exercise along the Black Sea shore that was marred by real-life interference wafting across the water. The focus of the Ramstein Legacy drill, held June 3-14, was on developing the alliance’s integrated air and missile defense with an additional eye on combating Class 1 unmanned aerial system threats — a reference to small, mini and micro drones.
NATO tests counter-drone playbook amid real-life jamming in Romania (defensenews.com)
(Chicago Council on Global Affairs) Leaders from countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—including new members Finland and Sweden—will gather in Washington, DC, in July to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding. The summit will touch on important questions about NATO’s future and next steps in aiding Ukraine in its war with Russia. While recent polls have shown that American support for continued support to Ukraine is declining, particularly among Republicans, a May 31–June 2, 2024, Chicago Council on Global Affairs–Ipsos survey shows large majorities of Americans believe the NATO alliance is essential to US security.
North Korea
(Justin V. Hastings – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Sanctions enforcement against North Korea is collapsing. Alternative strategies are likely to be ineffective, and North Korea is poised to take advantage.
North Korea – USA
(Andrew Yeo, Hanna Foreman – Brookings) Although U.S.-China competition, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and conflict in the Middle East loom large as top foreign policy issues in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump will need to address escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula and U.S.-North Korea relations. Since the collapse of the Hanoi Summit in February 2019, North Korea has adopted a more offensive nuclear doctrine, advanced its missile and satellite technology, improved its cyber capabilities, and strengthened political ties with Russia and China. However, the expected rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024 presents a stark contrast in how the two candidates might address North Korea and its nuclear program in a second term.
Why North Korea matters for the 2024 US election | Brookings
Nuclear
(Joshua A. Schwartz – Lawfare) In recent years, countries have adopted increasingly risky nuclear behaviors. Vladimir Putin has issued nuclear threats in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War, violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, leading to its collapse, and suspended Moscow’s participation in the New START Treaty that regulates strategic nuclear weapons. Donald Trump publicly threatened North Korea with nuclear use in his infamous “fire and fury” tweet and privately discussed crossing the nuclear threshold with his advisers. Joe Biden is pursuing a diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia under which the United States would help the kingdom build a civilian (for now) nuclear program with uranium enrichment. Iran continues to substantially increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium following the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal. And China is engaged in a large-scale nuclear buildup that will see the size of its arsenal double by 2030.
The Nuclear Taboo Is a Myth | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) From 13-15 June, Italy held the 2024 Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit in Apulia, hosting leaders from across the G7 countries, and observer nations such as India, Algeria, South Africa, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Holy See, among others. The Leaders’ Summit was held in the backdrop of Russia’s escalating offensive in Ukraine, the intensifying United States (US)-China geoeconomic competition and the war in Gaza—issues that the grouping has been grappling with since the 2022 G7 Summit in Germany. Another global issue that the G7 has taken up is the problem of development finance, infrastructure development, and connectivity. At the 2022 Summit, the G7 partners launched the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), under the leadership of the US, and pledged US$ 600 billion in private and public sector investments from the G7 countries.
The PGII consolidates Western connectivity initiatives (orfonline.org)
Russia’s War of Aggression in Ukraine
(Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – ISW) A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital — all contrary to available evidence. The July 8 Russian missile strikes likely employed a new and noteworthy tactic to maximize the damage from such strike series. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continued to posture themselves as potential mediators to an end to the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of serious negotiations or any third-party mediation. Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin replaced Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov as Russian Baltic Fleet Commander. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called on July 8 for Russia to increase its domestic production of drones fivefold by 2030.
Thailand
(George Abonyi, David Abonyi – East Asia Forum) Thailand is faced with a dual challenge of extensive infrastructure investment needs and growing public finance constraints. A well-designed, private sector-driven and market-responsive Thailand Infrastructure Investment Bank (TIIB) could play an important role in mobilising private financing, particularly from financial investors and institutional asset managers. The TIIB could provide a novel financial complement to the government’s public–private partnership program. Important lessons learned from other National Infrastructure Banks can inform the creation of a TIIB.
Bridging Thailand’s infrastructure investment gap | East Asia Forum
Tibet
(Harsh V. Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The issue of Tibet is back onto the international centre-stage with the visit of a seven-member US Congressional delegation to Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, this month to meet the Dalai Lama and members of the Tibetan government-in-exile. During the visit, former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lashed out at Chinese President Xi Jinping saying that the Dalai Lama’s contribution will live on in perpetuity while Xi Jinping will fade into obscurity. Pelosi had earlier made a trip to Taiwan, which China claims is a breakaway province, following which Beijing launched military drills around the island.
Tibet back under the spotlight (orfonline.org)
UK
(Matthew Savill – RUSI) As the new UK government grapples with the current state of the Armed Forces, hard thinking and prioritisation are needed to ensure they can provide capable and coherent forces to NATO and deal with modern threats.
A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
UK – Asia Pacific
(Claire Yorke – Lowy The Interpreter) It is all change in London. Labour’s landslide victory in the UK election last week saw Sir Keir Starmer enter Number Ten after 14 years of Conservative rule and a fair degree of chaos and uncertainty. The new Prime Minister has made rebuilding Britain and restoring credibility in domestic politics his priority. However, his government are also setting a new tone in foreign policy as it seeks to reconnect with allies, correct the failings of the previous administration, and set a stronger and more decisive course.
The broad Asia‑Pacific ambition for Britain under Labour | Lowy Institute
