Geostrategic magazine (29 July 2024)

Daily from global think tanks

COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

The Global Eye

BIMSTEC

(Harsh V. Pant, Sohini Bose – Observer Research Foundation) India hosted the 2nd BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in New Delhi last week with a focus on providing an “informal platform to discuss ways and means of cooperating and accelerating action in security, connectivity, trade, and investment within the Bay of Bengal.” The Retreat was held in preparation for the sixth Summit meeting, scheduled for September, in which the BIMSTEC leaders will meet in person for the first time in the post-pandemic era. They are also expected to sign the BIMSTEC Agreement on Maritime Transport Cooperation to improve regional connectivity, a foundational aim of this grouping.

A new push in the Bay of Bengal (orfonline.org)

China

(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao’s Shenzhen correspondent Daryl Lim finds out why even though the property market in Qianhai, Shenzhen, is plummeting now, it is not beyond repair.

Shenzhen’s Qianhai losing its real estate shine could be a good thing (thinkchina.sg)

(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao’s China news associate editor and Beijing correspondent Sim Tze Wei returns to Beijing after seven years, making some observations on how the city has evolved over the past decade or so.

Beijing, seven years later: A journalist’s notebook (thinkchina.sg)

(John Deighton, Leora Kornfeld – East Asia Forum) Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce is facing potential competition from Chinese firms. Shein, Temu and TikTok Shop are each capitalising on their respective unique business models and marketing strategies. With Shein leading in fast fashion, Temu’s extensive list of goods and affordable prices, and TikTok Shop’s use of audience preference data for market targeting, these new contenders employ algorithms to grow their brands rapidly without depending on traditional manufacturers, posing potential long-term challenges for Amazon.

Chinese e-commerce platforms are poised to rival Amazon’s empire | East Asia Forum

(Chris Lee – ASPI The Strategist) The authoritarian China model under President Xi Jinping’s leadership is facing increasing failure. Its most critical flaw lies in the unconstrained power of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), arbitrarily intervening in market and social activities for the interest of itself or its leaders without robust mechanisms for accountability and self-correction.

Why the China model is failing | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

China – Taiwan

(Tzu-Chieh Hung – East Asia Forum) The Chinese military conducted a large-scale training exercise in May 2024 and published a video of a simulated attack on Taiwan. The military exercise and video have reinvigorated discussions about increasing tensions across the Taiwan Strait. Such videos are part of China’s broader strategy of information warfare and military intimidation, aimed at projecting power and influencing perceptions both domestically and internationally.

China plays word games and war games with Taiwan | East Asia Forum

China – USA

(ThinkChina) A possible re-election of Donald Trump portends big shifts in geopolitical relations and global trade. Lianhe Zaobao associate editor Han Yong Hong takes a look at China’s role amid such a possibility.

Could Trump 2.0 benefit China? (thinkchina.sg)

Climate Action and Energy Transition

(Shannon Hobbs, Fiona David – Lowy The Interpreter) When we think of the renewable energy transition, we don’t typically associate it with inequality, human rights violations, and environmental destruction. Yet the reality is, as the world shifts at pace to renewable energy, pressure is ramping up on a finite set of critical minerals needed to power renewable energy, and with that comes the potential for abuse. Critical minerals, such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other lesser known rare earth elements, are essential for a renewable energy future. They are key inputs for solar panels, wind turbines, EVs and batteries. As we switch to renewable energy, pressure on these critical minerals is only going to ramp up. To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the International Energy Agency estimates that demand for critical minerals will increase three-and-a-half times by 2030.

Critical minerals, critical decisions | Lowy Institute

Colombo Security Conclave

(Sayantan Haldar, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) The Colombo Security Conclave’s (CSC) 8th Deputy National Security Advisor-level summit on 10 July witnessed Bangladesh officially joining the organisation as its fifth member. The latest development demonstrates the increasing importance and role of the CSC as the Indo-Pacific region grows in prominence. Since its revival in 2020, the CSC has seen an expansion in membership and has undertaken multiple initiatives to promote and institutionalise a security architecture in the region. In a rapidly evolving security environment, the CSC is facilitating the Indian Ocean littoral states to transit from a territorially-dominated security thinking to collaborate and cooperate on maritime threats and interests.

Expansion of Colombo Security Conclave: A step closer to maritime South Asia (orfonline.org)

European Union 

(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) The last time the European Commission laid out its five-year priorities was in 2019, only to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic a few months later, and then confront the return of war on the continent in 2022. Under European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first term, the European Union (EU) spearheaded a joint COVID-19 vaccine rollout, adopted an ambitious green deal, diversified its energy sources away from Russia, passed 13 rounds of sanctions against that country, attempted to recalibrate its relationship with China, and passed the world’s first Artificial Intelligence (AI) regulation act.

Decoding the European Commission’s 2024-2029 priorities (orfonline.org)

Global Governance

(East Asia Forum) The rise of economic security policies in reaction to an increasingly volatile international environment, driven by the weaponisation of trade, has led to countries implementing costly measures that potentially make them economically poorer without improving security. A strategic shift that remphasises the importance of the rules-based multilateral trading system, proven historically as a source of peace and prosperity, is crucial to maintaining global ties and could steer the current trajectory towards more secure and prosperous outcomes.

Getting the economics back into economic security | East Asia Forum

(Keith Rockwell – East Asia Forum) The global restructuring of supply chains is driven by multiple factors, including COVID-19, climate change action, geopolitical tensions and changes in domestic political visions. US–China tensions, an increased focus on domestic production and supply, reliance on specific countries for essential resources and changing trade patterns have caused significant shifts in global supply chains. The global response to this paradigm change needs to become more cooperative and coherent.

Supply chain changes need a globally coherent policy response | East Asia Forum

Gulf Cooperation Council

(Chatham House) Over recent years, countries from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have made significant strides developing their economies, societies and foreign relations. The six Gulf monarchies are investing in diversifying their economies to move away from their traditional dependence on hydrocarbons, and have undertaken reforms aimed at modernizing their societies and states.

Can Gulf countries balance regional security dynamics? (chathamhouse.org)

India

(Rahul Jaybhay – East Asia Forum) Four years after China’s escalation at the Galwan Valley, India’s multi-alignment strategy is in need of recalibration. Historically, India has been averse to establishing security coalitions or alliances, but there is a growing belief that it may need to engage in a deeper bilateral security partnership with Washington or create a security minilateral with Himalayan states in order to resist Beijing and maintain its sovereignty.

India must embrace security coalitions | East Asia Forum

(Swati Prabhu – Observer Research Foundation) Entering the third term of its 10-year stint in power, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by PM Modi yet again highlighted its diplomatic priorities in the immediate neighbourhood. Budget 2024-2025, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman, her seventh straight in a series, distinctly prioritised development as its core agenda. In her 83-minute-long speech, FM Sitharaman emphasised on nine developmental priorities for the country, ranging from productivity and resilience in agriculture; employment and skilling; inclusive human resource development and social justice; manufacturing and services; urban development; energy security; innovation, research and development; sustainable infrastructure; and next-generation reforms.

Budget 2024: Viksit Bharat’s ‘aid’ diplomacy (orfonline.org)

(Shoba Suri – Observer Research Foundation) The Union Budget 2024-25 has committed to strengthening the GYAN model to empower the ‘Garib’ (poor), ‘Yuva’ (youth), ‘Annadata’ (farmer), and ‘Nari’ (women). It has outlined a comprehensive strategy for a ‘Viksit Bharat’ aimed at economic growth, social welfare, and sustainable development. The Budget, however, has been disappointing and disheartening, with reduced allocations for crucial social welfare programmes for women and children. India is obligated under the National Food Security Act to provide for nutritional security by ensuring access and affordability of good quality food. As per the census 2011, India is home to 48 and 19 percent of women and children respectively. As per the National Family Health Survey, these 48 percent of women contribute to 18 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP); bridging the gender gap can lead to a 30-percent increase in India’s GDP. It is imperative to safeguard women and children to ensure a healthy future. Unfortunately, the Budget barely covers the nutrition needs of women and children.

Budget cuts: The ripple effect on social welfare schemes (orfonline.org)

Malaysia

(Ng Wei Ling – East Asia Forum) Malaysia is positioning itself to capitalise on the global green transition. The country’s mature semiconductor industry, skilled workforce and abundant resources of renewable energy make it well-suited to attract investment in electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and renewable energy. To achieve its goals, Malaysia is implementing supportive policies, such as tax exemptions for electric vehicles and investment in semiconductor manufacturing. The government aims to move up the value chain in semiconductor production while ensuring a just transition for workers in affected industries. With its strategic location and non-aligned geopolitical stance, Malaysia is poised to become a key player going forward.

Malaysia’s green transition can fuel its economic growth | East Asia Forum

New Caledonia

(Catherine Wilson – Lowy The Interpreter) A deep political and social fracture continues more than two months after civil unrest engulfed New Caledonia. The bitter confrontations that began in May between French police and pro-independence activists over electoral reforms laid bare increasing polarisation between loyalists and separatists in this small island society of about 290,000 people.

The unheard potential of moderate voices in New Caledonia’s crisis | Lowy Institute

North Korea – South Korea – USA

(Yeji Chung – East Asia Forum) South Korea and the United States aim to enhance their use of cyber capabilities to deter North Korean nuclear threats by disrupting its command, control and communications systems. While this strategy has significant potential advantages, the risk of unintended escalation necessitates careful balancing with conventional defence strategies and stability-boosting policies.

Fighting North Korean fire with firewalls | East Asia Forum

Thailand

(Sharon Seah, Tita Sanglee – ThinkChina) Thailand stands out in the region for its unruffled response to rising great power rivalry. Why so?

Cool in the crossfire? Thailand amid major power competition (thinkchina.sg)

 

 

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