Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Ai-Ju Huang, Ellen Hagerman – World Bank blogs) Women and men coming from a number of countries from the East and Horn of Africa highlighted examples of deep-seated patriarchal attitudes and stereotypes, which drive gender inequality throughout life, during trainings conducted by the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) on how to foster gender-transformative approaches in the male-dominated transboundary water management sector.
Promoting a gender-transformative approach in the transboundary water sector (worldbank.org)
(Abebe Adugna – World Bank blogs) Every year in Western and Central Africa, 6 million young people enter the labor force, while only about half a million new jobs are created. This enormous jobs deficit means that most entrants into the workforce work in the informal sector, with insecure income, low quality employment, and very little hope of escaping poverty. The repercussions of this unemployment epidemic are profound: a breakdown in the social contract, social and political unrest, wasted human potential and increased poverty.
Cameroon
(Issa Bitang A Tiati, Odilia R. Hebga – World Bank blogs) The Far North region of Cameroon, bordering Chad, Nigeria, and Lake Chad, has been beleaguered by multiple crises and conflicts in recent years, hampering development in an area already grappling with high poverty rates and low human capital indexes. Climate change has exacerbated the situation, leading to deadly clashes over scarce resources. Traditionally, this region has a history of tolerance and peaceful coexistence among different communities, including farmers, fishermen, Christians, and Muslims. During crises, traditional and religious leaders have consistently played a pivotal role in conflict resolution. His Majesty Mahamat Bahar Maruf, Sultan of Logone Birni, reflects on this responsibility: “We are seen as a compass. In times of stress or insecurity, it is up to us to identify ways to comfort people and bring the community back together”.
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Lorenzo Chelleri – Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) With hundreds of cities declaring climate emergencies, there is little evidence about successful climate adaptation and its upscaling. In parallel to the case for adaptation, there is also a distinct need to mitigate climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation, a third concept – resilience (and resilience thinking) – is a perspective that can scrutinise adaptation and tie it to mitigation. Which adaptation, to what, and how do we measure the success or fallacy of adaptations to climate change in cities?
The need for (which) adaptation to climate change in cities? | CIDOB
Emerging Technologies
(Council on Foreign Relations) Panelists discuss the Silicon Valley’s role in the future of war and whether or not the Pentagon is successfully innovating rapidly enough to keep up with the technological changes facing the military.
Future Wars: The Nexus of Technology and the Military | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Sauradeep Bag – Observer Research Foundation) India has made remarkable strides in Artificial Intelligence (AI), revolutionising sectors like healthcare, agriculture, finance, and education. With government initiatives such as the National Strategy for AI and a thriving startup ecosystem, AI development is rapidly advancing. India is positioning itself as a global leader in the AI ecosystem. Yet, before rolling out AI solutions at scale, particularly in vital sectors like agriculture, several critical prerequisites must be met. First and foremost, robust digital infrastructure must be established across rural areas to ensure seamless data collection and analysis. This means ensuring widespread internet connectivity, providing access to smart devices, and equipping individuals with the necessary training to use AI tools effectively.
Balancing ambition with realism: The role of AI in development (orfonline.org)
(Centre for Land Warfare Studies) We are living in an era wherein “smart things” will dictate how we lead our lives. Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT) will create a huge impact in gaining leverage over the adversary in a manner and magnitude that is difficult to comprehend. IoBT, with its ability to provide efficient situational awareness in the battlefield, can change the course of battles. The concept of IoBT is still at a nascent stage and significant efforts are being made Research and Development (R&D) for practical implementation of IoBT all over the world (the Army Research Laboratory, USA and National University of Defence Technology, China being the notable among them). Under the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ slogan, several projects like NFS, iSentinel are in the pipeline in this field. The Armed Forces need to focus on a ‘bottom-up’ approach and enable the smallest of teams to work with ‘intelligent’ systems. However, implementation of IoBT where human soldiers and machines form tailor-made units/teams for specific tasks, comes with numerous challenges that warrants various changes to approach, training, organisation etc.
Internet of Battlefield Things: Warfighting in Realtime – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
(Cameron Vega, Eliana Johns – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) When considering the potentially catastrophic impacts of military applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a few deadly scenarios come to mind: autonomous killer robots, AI-assisted chemical or biological weapons development, and the 1983 movie WarGames.
European Union – Turkiye
(IISS) European states have long sought to collaborate on defence-industrial projects. Turkiye has been largely absent from this, despite the country’s much-improved industrial capability. As part of a joint project with the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, this report explores how European defence-industrial cooperation has developed and how Turkiye has interacted with it.
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) In the lead-up to the October parliamentary elections in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party is campaigning to obtain a “constitutional majority” despite showing concern about the possibility of losing power amid decreasing approval ratings. The pro-Western opposition in Georgia is fragmented and struggling to agree on a way to unite against GD due to narrow party interests and personal ambitions of party leadership, providing GD hope for winning the election. Russia and China have shown unprecedented interest in Georgia’s future, with Moscow expressing support for GD and Beijing expressing interest in the electoral process, marking a shift in geopolitical influences in Georgia through China’s rising influence.
Georgia’s Ruling Elite Plans to Maintain Power by Fragmenting Opposition – Jamestown
Global Governance
(Moritz Piatti, Srinivas Gurazada – World Bank blogs) Budget support remains an important aid modality. It provides unearmarked contributions to a government’s budget to support policy reforms. Total commitments from development partners average about $30 billion per year and spike to 20% of total overseas development assistance during times of crises.
(World Bank blogs) Investors routinely lament there are too few bankable public-private partnership (PPP) projects to drive the increased private investment that is critically needed if we are to meet growing demands for infrastructure. This highlights a core challenge facing countries who want to raise private investment in infrastructure: effectively preparing PPP projects. And this challenge can become a practical barrier to using PPPs. As a consequence, governments are increasingly focusing on how to more systematically support PPP project preparation. Project development funds (PDFs), dedicated vehicles that fund project preparation, are seen as a tool that can increase the pool of bankable PPPs. More and more evidence from established PDFs proves this is the case.
Addressing the PPP project preparation gap (worldbank.org)
(Farah Imrana Hussain, Abhishek Joseph – World Bank blogs) Emerging market economies require USD 6.9 trillion to USD 7.6 trillion between 2023 and 2030 in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Additionally, intergovernmental organizations and research institutes worldwide estimate that global investments up to USD 275 trillion will be required between 2020 and 2050 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050. Sovereigns in emerging markets are recognizing the need for additional finance and exploring a myriad of options, including borrowing from the capital markets through dedicated sustainable financing instruments that earmark proceeds for specific types of projects. Since 2016, twenty-six emerging market (EM) sovereigns have issued green, social, and sustainability (GSS) bonds amounting to USD 125 billion, as of 30 June 2024. A key aspect of these labeled bonds is that issuers need to report the use of proceeds and the social and environmental impacts of projects and activities supported.
India
(Ayjaz Wani, Sameer Patil – Observer Research Foundation) Narcoterrorism—or the trafficking of illicit drugs by terrorist and insurgent groups—has long threatened India’s national security. Security agencies are attempting to address this challenge, which involves various groups like Khalistani terrorist organisations, Kashmir’s separatist militants, and insurgent groups in the Northeast; their efforts have achieved mixed results. This brief examines recent trends in drug trafficking and narcoterrorism and their impact on India’s national security, and explores the countermeasures employed by the country’s security agencies. The authors used existing literature, analysed government policies, and drew insights from interactions with law enforcement officials and the legal fraternity. The brief focuses on narcoterrorism in the Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) regions, and outlines recommendations for arresting the narcoterrorism phenomenon.
The Narcoterrorism Challenge to India’s National Security (orfonline.org)
(Shushant VC Parashar – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) The Union budget maintains the allocation of ₹ 6.21 lakh crore to the Ministry of Defence (MoD), done earlier during the Interim Budget, which amounts to 13 per cent of the budget. Additionally, the Government of India (GoI) has allocated ₹ 400 crore to innovation in defence through the Acing Development of Innovative Technologies with iDEX (ADITI) scheme. The MoD, via the ADITI scheme, aims to increase engagement with start-ups/MSMEs and innovators to develop technologies to overcome the issues plaguing the defence sector and simultaneously empower the Indian Armed Forces with innovative and indigenous technology.
Intelligence
(Archishman Goswami – Observer Research Foundation) When Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Vienna in July following successful summit talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, he became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the Austrian capital since the 1980s. Perhaps eclipsed among the myriad MoUs and statements of intent jointly signed and articulated between Prime Minister and his Austrian counterpart, Chancellor Karl Nehammer, was the knowledge of the country’s importance as a locus of global espionage for decades—and to that end, its criticality to India’s intelligence and diplomatic priorities shaping its global posture. Notwithstanding the scale of technological advancement that has come to shape international relations and global espionage, key urban landscapes have come to be inextricably linked to international espionage—in particular the Austrian capital. Crafting strategies to engage these third countries and their capitals is therefore vital to the success of one’s foreign intelligence endeavours and wider foreign policy objectives.
Comprehending the conduit: Spy capitals in a changing world order (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Mohammed A. Salih – Foreign Policy Research Institute) Iran’s regional policy during President Masoud Pezeshkian’s term will maintain continuity rather than change. Pezeshkian has demonstrated commitment to the Islamic Republic’s ongoing regional priorities and support for the Axis of Resistance members, Iran’s main tool of regional domination. Iran’s regional policy will continue to be managed primarily by the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, with the president mainly focusing on formal diplomatic functions, particularly in developing trade and investment ties with regional states. Iran will likely maintain its overall aggressive posture toward the US role in the region, particularly the US military presence in Iraq and Syria, to force an eventual withdrawal of the troops through a calculated campaign of attrition.
(Alejandro Zurita – Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) For years, Israel and Iran have continued a kind of silent war supported until now by indirect attacks on the interests and allies of both parties. But after the reciprocal missile attacks between Iran and Israel last April aimed at their own territories, there is a real risk of an escalation of the crisis to greater dimensions. In this new context, it is also necessary to understand to what extent the nuclear deal signed with Iran could still play a relevant role contributing to alleviate the current crisis or it is dead.
The Iran nuclear deal: a missed opportunity? | CIDOB
Jordan
(Sabine Ameer – Observer Research Foundation) While Jordan is seen as a relatively stable country in the Middle East which also enjoys a reasonable standing among Western nations, the fact that it shares a border with the West Bank and Israel might mean that the ongoing Israel-Hamas War could spill over to its borders. Its relations with Israel have been on shaky terrain as a consequence of the broad condemnation of Israel’s action in the Occupied Palestinian Territories by King Abdullah and his government officials. In concurrence, Amman has become an arena for struggle between Israel (and its allies) and non-state actors from the ‘Axis of Resistance’ amid the ongoing Israel-Iran shadow war. Jordan and Palestine are forever connected on cultural and political fronts and therefore any political upheaval in Gaza would inevitably have serious implications for Jordan. Set against this backdrop, this article unpacks Jordan’s positions, opportunities, and challenges emitting from the ongoing war in Gaza.
What is at stake for Jordan in the Israel-Hamas War? (orfonline.org)
Middle East
(Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Robert Moore, William Doran, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani administration officials as his first vice president and chief of staff, respectively – Lebanon: The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28 as both Israeli officials and Hezbollah messaged that they do not want “all-out war” at this time – Gaza Strip: Unspecified Israeli negotiators told an Israeli military correspondent that they are pessimistic that Israel and Hamas will reach a ceasefire agreement following a meeting with mediators in Rome on July 28. Separately, the IDF detained nine Israeli soldiers on July 29 for alleged “substantial abuse” of a Palestinian fighter whom the IDF detained for questioning – West Bank: The IDF Central Command commander said that the IDF has increased security around Israeli settlements and increased “offensive” measures against Palestinian fighters in the West Bank.
Iran Update, July 29, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Anne-Marie Slaughter, Xanthe Scharff – ASPI The Strategist) On 19 July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said negotiations on an agreement to release hostages held in Gaza and establish a ceasefire were nearing the finish line. Such an agreement is long overdue and could lay the foundations for a peace settlement. But to build peace, rather than simply declare it, policymakers must engage a wider range of actors, starting with women.
Peacebuilding in the Middle East requires women | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Pacific
(Mercy Masta, Elisabeth Jackson – Lowy The Interpreter) In the Pacific, gender equality is a key policy concern for international donors and Pacific governments and civil society organisations. But decades of investment in gender equality programs have seen only modest gains. Women continue to be underrepresented in leadership and politics and rates of domestic violence remain stubbornly high.
Gender equality, the Pacific way | Lowy Institute
(Mike Copage – ASPI The Strategist) Pacific island countries, and low-lying lands globally, are on the front lines of climate change. From rising sea-levels to intensifying cyclone impacts, vulnerable food and economic security, they face a great many risks. Equally, the history of Pacific islanders revolves around learning and adapting to the unique environments of their homelands—and they are unequivocal about their desire to continue that long tradition of adaptation in the face of amplified climate risks.
Pacific land reclamation deserves support | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia – Afghan Taliban
(Lucas Webber – The Jamestown Foundation) In Russia, the growing threat of the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISKP) has pushed the Kremlin to expand ties with the Afghan Taliban and consider delisting the jihadist organization as a designated terrorist group. ISKP views Russia as a top-tier target due to, among other grievances, the legacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Chechen wars, and the 2015 military intervention in Syria to support Bashar al-Assad’s forces. Russian officials have applauded Kabul’s support for aiding in Moscow’s counterterrorism efforts, with President Vladimir Putin declaring the Taliban Russia’s “ally” in the fight against regional terrorism.
Growing ISKP Threat Pushes Russia Closer to Taliban – Jamestown
Russia – Middle East
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a secret meeting the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, demonstrating Putin’s scramble to maintain influence in the Middle East. Russia’s renewed interest in the Middle East is due to the growing influence of other regional powers, such as China’s recent mediation between Palestinian factions. The Kremlin seeks to portray itself as a champion of the struggle for dismantling the US-dominated world order. Its war against Ukraine, however, proves Moscow’s ongoing propensity for violent disorder in its vision of a multipolar world.
Russian Intrigues in Middle East Surge – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 29 the provision of security assistance to Ukraine worth $200 million from the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package and an additional package worth $1.5 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds – The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to codify desired behavioral norms within Russia by cracking down against undesirable behavior in the Russian information space and within migrant communities – The Kremlin is likely attempting to establish prominent standards of acceptable and unacceptable behavior among populations within Russia whose behavior has recently threatened the Kremlin – Much of the Russian information space response to the recent Tuareg insurgent ambush of a Wagner Group in northern Mali coalesced around the suggestion that the Russian MoD will seek to benefit from Wagner losses, highlighting the continued distrust between the Russian MoD and both the Wagner Group in the Sahel and pro-Wagner commentators – Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy and utility infrastructure in Oryol, Voronezh, and Belgorod oblasts on the night of July 28 to 29 – Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northeast of Kharkiv City, in Vovchansk, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City – The Russian government continues to take legislative steps to use migrants and newly naturalized citizens to fulfill Russian military personnel needs.
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian military in Ukraine is suffering from various signs of degradation. The longer the war goes on, the more these trends are likely to intensify, threatening Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations and maintain order at home. The battlefield degradation is seeping back into Russia as veterans of the conflict return, with many behaving in a more criminal fashion than did the veterans of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and the Russian invasions of Chechnya in the 1990s and 2000s. The Kremlin is worried. Thus far, Moscow has thought it could keep the situation in check with carrots (e.g., massive payments to soldiers) and sticks (e.g., increased repression). At least some in Russia want the war to end lest a degraded military threaten the regime as it has in the past. The Putin regime fears that the veterans who are now returning home may not become the “new elite” the Kremlin leader has promised but rather become “guns for hire” or form their own criminal enterprises.
Russian Army Degrading in Ukraine, Threatening Moscow Both There and at Home – Jamestown
UK
(Julian Brazier, Ryan Shea – RUSI) The pace of change today leaves the UK facing formidable threats and remarkable opportunities. However, money for defence remains extremely tight, so developing and buying the right equipment for our forces is critical.
(Patricia Lewis, Olivia O’Sullivan – Chatham House) On 18 July the new UK government announced it would conduct a Strategic Defence Review (SDR), shaped by three external reviewers: Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, Dr Fiona Hill and General Sr Richard Barrons.
(Oscar Berglund – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Last week, record prison sentences were handed down to five British climate activists for organizing a multi-day protest on the M25, the motorway that goes around London. Four of them received sentences of four years each. The fifth, Roger Hallam, got a five-year sentence. These sentences are an alarming escalation in the criminalization of climate protests, in the UK and beyond.
USA
(Jack Goldsmith – Lowy The Interpreter) The city of Kokomo sits about an hour’s drive north of Indianapolis in the American Midwest. Immersed in the agricultural heartland between the historic industrial centres of Detroit and Chicago, Kokomo’s once thriving automobile manufacturing plants have suffered under decades of deindustrialisation, leaving it one of the hardest hit localities during the Global Financial Crisis. Otherwise unremarkable smalltown America, Kokomo is positioned at the forefront of the country’s biggest economic and technological overhaul in modern history. Revitalisation efforts under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will help turn it into a key location for the manufacture of electric vehicle (EV) batteries as part of America’s broader strategy to reclaim its industrial prestige.
Made in the USA: America’s gambit to reclaim industrial primacy | Lowy Institute
(Douglas Barrie – IISS) The US Navy has entered into service a very long-range air-to-air missile aimed at countering developments in Chinese air power and its capacity to threaten surface combatants in the Indo-Pacific theatre.
Phoenix successor redux: the USN’s range riposte to China’s PL-17? (iiss.org)
(Brad W. Setser – Council on Foreign Relations) There was a saying a few years back that the United States is the one country where you could “make your first million (or billion) before buying your first suit.”. Perhaps that saying should be changed to United States is “the one country where a company can get a stock market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, or even trillions, before paying much—if any—tax to the U.S. government.”. I am referring of course to Nvidia, which doesn’t appear to have paid any tax to the United States Treasury on net between 2016 and 2022.
(Jeffrey Fuhrer – Brookings) In a previous post, I note that an alarmingly high fraction of U.S. families—somewhere between one-third and 43%—do not have resources sufficient to pay for basic needs. The proportions are significantly worse for families of color, exceeding one-half. This observation stems from data that carefully collects basic budget information by county and family structure from thousands of counties in the U.S. The simple fact is that it’s expensive to live in most places in the country, and incomes far too often fall short of local costs of living. The number of families that fall short is shocking.
The cost of being poor is rising. And it’s worse for poor families of color. | Brookings
(Vivek Mishra, Ankitha Brijesh – Observer Research Foundation) Immigration is a key issue for the United States (US) in the upcoming elections, with challenges such as a drastic increase in illegal border crossings, strained resources, a broken asylum system, and deeply divided public opinion. Since President Biden entered office, there have been over 6.4 million border crossings, demonstrating the scope of the immigration problem. The US asylum system is noticeably overburdened, with over 2 million pending cases resulting in a considerable backlog and placing enormous strain on the process. The spike in asylum applicants highlights the need for comprehensive immigration reform. Especially as immigration is a critical issue influencing voter sentiment and shaping the American political landscape, both the Republicans and the Democrats are deeply divided on how to address the crisis, making it an important issue that could impact election outcomes and future policy directions.
US elections: Immigration takes centre stage (orfonline.org)
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) Even as the US Democratic Party works to secure a formal nomination for Kamala Harris after President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the electoral process, the Republican National Convention earlier this month put its stamp on former president Donald Trump’s candidacy for the White House. Trump also announced the junior senator from Ohio since 2023, J.D. Vance, as his running mate. Vance had been a strong critic of Trump in the past, calling him “America’s Hitler” and a “moral disaster.” He had been categorical in his public assessment of Trump as a “total fraud” who didn’t care about regular people and had even called him “reprehensible.”
The Trump-Vance candidacy will seriously affect the global order (orfonline.org)
(Vic Suarez – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Just a few short years ago, acquiring medical face masks, gloves, and face shields was a challenge akin to securing front-row tickets to a Taylor Swift concert. By mid-2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns had laid bare the United States’s precarious reliance on foreign sources. Seeing states in a cut-throat competition for limited supplies of foreign-made goods, policymakers implemented various measures to address shortfalls. Now personal protective equipment (PPE) is in plentiful supply online and in any retail drugstore. Yet, unfortunately, any notion that the country’s underlying supply chain problem has been resolved is just an illusion—one that masks a grim reality. Far from being in a better place with respect to PPE, the United States now stands on the verge of a near-complete inability to manufacture these critical supplies.
Venezuela
(Atlantic Council) Voting doesn’t make a democracy—legitimate and transparent counting of the votes does. On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to select their next president. Early on Monday, the Nicolás Maduro-controlled election committee declared Maduro, who took over the presidency from Hugo Chávez in 2013, the winner of another six-year term. The announcement came in the face of widespread accounts of voter intimidation and other irregularities meant to deny victory to opposition candidate Edmundo González, who led in pre-election polling. “The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” González said of the electoral committee’s dodgy results.
