From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : ASEAN-Malaysia, Belarus, China, Indonesia-BRICS-US, Japan-US, Myanmar, South Korea-Japan-US, Sudan, Turkiye, Davos 2025
ASEAN – Malaysia
(Simran Walia – Manohar Parrikar Institute)
For the fifth time since the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was founded in 1967, Malaysia took over as chairman of the organisation on 1 January 2025. ASEAN’s 2025 theme will be ‘Inclusivity and Sustainability’. During its chairship, Malaysia seeks to promote digital transformation and further strengthen intra-ASEAN as well as extra-regional trade. The first ASEAN–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Plus China Summit, for instance, will take place in Malaysia in May 2025. – Malaysia as 2025 ASEAN Chair – MP-IDSA
Belarus
(Ryhor Astapenia – Chatham House)
On Sunday, Aliaksandr Lukashenka ‘won’ his seventh term in office in a rigged election, extending his 30-year reign by another five years. Still ‘only’ 70, this makes him one of the longest-serving heads of state in the world. The election campaign was, of course, sterile and uneventful. But Lukashenka’s occasional reference to ‘generational change in the coming years’ bears consideration. These remarks might have been dismissed as mere rhetoric were it not for earlier signals suggesting that a transition of power could soon dominate Belarusian politics. – The Belarus ‘election’ raises the question: When will Lukashenka step down? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
China
(Sari Arho Havrén – RUSI)
Donald Trump’s clear win in the US elections has sent shockwaves once again among Washington’s allies. EU member states vacillate between pursuing strategic autonomy and their own defence capabilities, continuing to lean towards their long-term security provider (the US), or perhaps veering towards China, Russia’s quasi-ally. Ukraine’s endgame is looming over Europe, which so far appears incapable of supplying enough weapons and ammunition to meet Ukraine’s needs. Allies in the Indo-Pacific are equally worried as to what Trump’s second term might mean, despite talk that it will bring more US focus to the region. Meanwhile, Beijing has been preparing – better than most – to face Trump as US president once more. – China’s Xi is Seizing the Moment while the US is in Transition | Royal United Services Institute
Indonesia – BRICS – US
(Siwage Dharma Negara, Leo Suryadinata – FULCRUM)
Indonesia has joined the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa organisation. How will this impact its ties with the United States? – Assessing Indonesia’s Relations with the US After Joining BRICS | FULCRUM
Japan – US
(Arnab Dasgupta – Manohar Parrikar Institute)
Japan’s relationship with the United States has been the bedrock of East Asian international order after 1945. It has served as the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign and security policy, freeing up its energies for economic growth and development. As such, Japan–US ties have generally been as deep as they have been broad, with partnerships across a host of sectors moving forward in different registers. In this context, Japanese national steelmaker Nippon Steel’s acquisition of the US’ national steel concern US Steel should have been a tricky, but possible, development. – The Nippon Steel Issue: An Unforeseen Irritant in Japan–US ties – MP-IDSA
Myanmar
(Kyaw Yin Hlaing, Kyi Sin, Jared Bissinger, Su Mon Thazin Aung, Moe Thuzar – FULCRUM)
Despite hopes for change, things may stay the same or worsen in Myanmar, as the junta’s fight against resistance groups and civilians continues into another year. – Myanmar in 2025: Change or Plus ça Change? | FULCRUM
South Korea – Japan – US
(East Asia Forum)
President Yoon Suk-yeol’s short-lived declaration of martial law in December 2024 led to political chaos in South Korea, an impeachment vote and a subsequent court case against him for insurrection. The likely return to power of the Democratic Party and potential presidency of Lee Jae-myung could lead to a significant shift in South Korea’s foreign relations and the political balance in Northeast Asia, especially as the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency puts stress on the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral’s shaky political foundations. – Yoon’s impeachment set to destabilise Seoul–Tokyo–Washington ties | East Asia Forum
Sudan
(UN Security Council)
27 January, afternoon. The Security Council will convene to receive the semi-annual briefing of International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan on the ICC’s Darfur-related work. – Sudan (International Criminal Court): Briefing : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Turkiye
(Adil Rasheed – Manohar Parrikar Institute)
Turkiye is swiftly expanding its influence in a rapidly imploding Islamic world, as its ‘neo-Ottoman’ president is whipping up a new wave of Islamism across continents. The country is even intervening in South Asia now, by forging defence deals with Pakistan and Bangladesh. – Turkiye: The Threat of the Neo-Ottoman Caliphate to Regional Security – MP-IDSA
Davos 2025
(Faisal Alibrahim, Kristalina Georgieva, Laurence D. Fink, Sara Eisen, Christine Lagarde, Tharman Shanmugaratnam – WEF)
Nearly five years since the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy, growth is slow but stable, inflation has gradually declined in advanced economies and trade trends have turned positive. Despite this, there remain challenges such as high public debt burdens, ongoing geo-economic tensions and the potential impact of industrial policies on smaller countries. Given this landscape, what are the plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2025? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Sir Robin Niblett, Jamil Edmond Anderlini, Fred Hu, Belen Garijo, Graham Allison – WEF)
Despite the ratcheting up of trade tensions between the United States, Europe and China, a high level of mutual economic dependency continues to bind the world’s major powers together and – at present – prevents competition from escalating into conflict. As the three powers delicately balance continued dialogue and engagement with the pursuit of their geo-economics interests, what will their future relationship look like? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Rene Saul, Pervinder Johar, Brendan Vaughan, Hoda Al Khzaimi, Rodrigo Liang – WEF)
As digital public infrastructure (DPI) reshapes communication and operations, public-private collaboration on key components such as digital identity, payments and data exchange is essential. How can these partnerships ensure equitable distribution of DPI advantages? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Raquel Urtasun, Tom Oxley, Nita Farahany, Anthony Jules, Yossi Vardi – WEF)
Neurotechnology extends the possibilities of our brains, autonomous systems take us where we need to go and robots are becoming a part of our daily life. These technologies are not just the backdrop of futuristic novels, they are creating a world previously confined to the imaginations of science-fiction writers. What are the key future technologies that once seemed unbelievable and how are they poised to reshape everyday life in 2035? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Daren Tang, Ufuk Akcigit, Erik Brynjolfsson, Elisa Martinuzzi, Nancy Xu, Eva Maydell – WEF)
Intangible assets such as intellectual property rights, data and algorithms account for an increasing share of economic activity in many economies. But the rise of intangibles poses challenges, such as measurement and ensuring competition. What innovative solutions can help overcome these challenges and drive economic growth and fairness? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Tali Sharot, Richard W. Edelman, Tirana Hassan, Rahul Kanwal – WEF)
While 2024 could be seen as a high point in the history of elections as a record number of people went to the polls, worrying trends are emerging with 64% of voters in advanced economies reporting dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in their country. What actions are needed to restore trust in institutions and strengthen the world’s democracies? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Teruo Fujii, Michael Spence, Kimberly Budil, Jonathan Brennan-Badal, Maria Leptin – WEF)
In today’s polarized geopolitical landscape, balancing security concerns with the need for collaborative innovation is growing more complex, while the lack of policies that protect intellectual property and international security is increasingly clear. How can businesses, governments and institutions foster safe yet open research environments essential for scientific advancement? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Dorjkhand Togmid, Molly Montgomery, Ibrahim Thiaw, Ismahane Elouafi, John Steenhuisen, Sir Andrew Steer, Abdulatif Rashid – WEF)
With 40% of land degraded globally, the consequences are starting to be felt in industry: a fall in agricultural productivity, polluted waterways and increased frequency of droughts. What measures can be taken now to reverse this trend and create resilient economies for the future? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(H.R.H. Prince Jaime de Bourbon de Parme, David Gelles, Katherine Brennan, Veronica Scotti, Jeffrey C. Hines – WEF)
Insurance premiums for climate resilience and natural catastrophe protection are set to rise by 50% by 2030. In several high-profile cases, property and casualty coverage has been withdrawn from specific geographies, creating “insurance deserts”. What is the extent of insurance retreat and what are the implications for business and individuals? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Luana Marques Garcia Ozemela, Sander van ’t Noordende, Erika Kraemer Mbula, Kumiko Seto, Hassan Elkhatib – WEF)
Since 2010, the gig economy has grown fivefold globally, employing over 200 million independent workers today, while a steep increase in remote work and project-based contracts are reshaping industries. With these trends going well beyond working from home, what strategies are needed to ensure fair and sustainable practices in this new work landscape? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Amani Abou-Zeid, Christophe De Vusser, Bandar Alkhorayef, Niclas Mårtensson, Huang Shan – WEF)
The intelligent infrastructure market is expected to grow to $2 trillion over the next 10 years, bolstered by increasing private sector investment. Technologies such as AI, quantum and hyperconnectivity are blending the physical and the digital in an integrated approach to infrastructure, promising to transform industrial operations. How are smart infrastructure investments both meeting the increasing demand for infrastructure in industry and contributing to responsible and sustainable growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Gan Kim Yong, Henadi Al Saleh, Raj Kumar, Alberto van Klaveren – WEF)
Global trade is projected to grow by only 3% in 2025, threatened by geopolitical rivalries, protectionism and weak popular support in major economies. Emerging technologies promise new trade opportunities, but they must deliver for people or risk a similar backlash. How can trade adapt to the new global economy and drive long-term, inclusive growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Stacy Greiner, Claude Cummings Jr, Adi Ignatius, Volker Türk – WEF)
Global incomes have stagnated in recent years resulting in workers’ living standards being unable to keep up with increases in prices. Technological advances have helped in boosting productivity, yet these gains are not being shared equally. How can it be ensured that economic gains translate directly into fairer wages and improved living standards for workers? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Ana Luísa Virgínia, David John Haines, Tolu Oni, Mariam Mohammed Saeed AlMheiri, Johan Westman, Chirag Paswan – WEF)
From the use of prescription weight-loss drugs to the unaffordability of food, current socio-economic factors are significantly shaping the future of nutrition. With the consumption of quality food fundamental to physical health, mental well-being and overall vitality, how can food and health systems be better equipped to adapt to the evolving market drivers? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Xue Lan, Nick Clegg, Katie Drummond, Ian Bremmer, Henna Virkkunen, Sir Jeremy Fleming – WEF)
New technologies are reshaping the global security landscape, with countries and companies racing ahead with AI innovations alongside questions over dual-use risks, system misuse, or military applications. How can leaders from the private and public sectors work together to put in place safeguards for rapidly advancing technologies? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Francine Lacqua, Faisal Alibrahim, Mohammed Aljadaan, Laurence D. Fink, Abdullah AlSwaha, Kristalina Georgieva – WEF)
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil activities reached 50% of its GDP in 2023, a first for the kingdom as it expands its investment to diversify its economy through emerging industries and technologies, infrastructure development and workforce adaptation. What are the country’s plans to safeguard stability and drive robust growth in the Intelligent Age? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
