Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Bangladesh
(Crisis Group) Mass unrest has rocked Bangladesh in July, as students and others demonstrate against quotas for state jobs, and the government responds with deadly repression. Pierre Prakash explains what is behind the turmoil.
Bangladesh on Edge after Crushing Quota Protests | Crisis Group
Canada
(Abhishek Verma – Manohar Parrikar Institute) On 22 July 2024, the BAPS Swaminarayan Mandir in Edmonton was vandalised by the Khalistan separatists with hateful and anti-India graffiti. This incident occurred on the heels of another incident on 19 June 2024 wherein the Canadian parliament observed a minute’s silence on the first death anniversary of designated Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. A moment of silence in the parliament reflects an unequivocal consensus among representatives of all the political parties in the House of Commons. Such non-partisan consensus vis-à-vis Khalistani separatists has not been uncommon in Canada. Since the early 1980s, the Canadian political landscape, irrespective of the political parties in power, has been permissive, if not sympathetic, to the Khalistan movement. The driving forces behind such political consensus have ranged from Cold War dynamics before 1990s to domestic politics at present.
Caspian Sea
(Zaur Shiriyev – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In early July, fish began dying en masse off Azerbaijan’s coast, sparking speculation that Russia’s increasingly frequent cruise missile strikes against Ukraine, launched from its Caspian Flotilla, could be to blame. The deaths coincided with a significant Russian missile attack on Ukraine, allegedly using Kalibr cruise missiles also launched from the Caspian Sea.
China
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has been aiming to acquire strategic and expeditionary capabilities since the Gulf War in 1991, with President Xi Jinping targeting operational proficiency by 2035. The PLAAF has since made strides in hardware, incorporating fourth-generation and stealth fighters into its fleet. It lags in combat experience, however, as well as in operational tactics, military doctrines, and pilot efficiency, particularly when compared to its neighbours allied with forces of the United States (US). To address these deficiencies, China is seeking to covertly hire Western air combat trainers from the US, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia to train its fighter pilots. This brief explores recent warnings from the Five Eyes Alliance about China’s recruitment efforts and the related developments that highlight the PLAAF’s operational and training deficiencies.
Operational and Training Constraints in China’s Air Force (orfonline.org)
China – Taiwan
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands explore four coercive approaches that Beijing could use to change the status quo around Taiwan short of outright invasion or blockade. The paper also highlights the serious challenges Washington and Taipei must address to have a ready response to these scenarios.
Not Just Boots on the Beach (csis.org)
Emerging Technologies
(James Andrew Lewis – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Everyone has been in an electrical power blackout. Blackouts are a good way to think about what happened on July 19, when a widespread network outage disrupted businesses operations worldwide. The chief difference is that blackouts tend to be localized, while this was global in its reach. This was also not a total blackout, as is usually the case with electricity. Microsoft estimates that 8.5 million computers were affected out of a global total of well over a billion. The outage highlighted key problems for the globally connected digital networks that businesses depend upon. Most companies know how reliant they are on computers and networks, but they may not have realized the degree of interconnections and interdependencies they have with third parties. The world’s networks are connected in unexpected ways, and this creates unpredictable risk and vulnerability.
(Valerie Wirtschafter – Derek Belle – Brookings) As one of the most transformative technologies ever created, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to reshape nearly every facet of society. While we are far from seeing AI’s full capabilities, the guardrails put in place now will influence how this technology shapes work and productivity, democracy, war and peace, and much more moving forward. Two successive administrations have attempted to address these issues, each with different interests and styles, but with some surprising overlap in objectives and policies. The next president will face major decisions on how to govern increasingly powerful and disruptive AI systems and how to prioritize challenges related to safety, innovation, competition, and risk. If the past is a prelude, the actions of both the Biden and Trump administrations offer some clues as to how the future rules of the road might be written.
What does the 2024 election mean for the future of AI governance? | Brookings
(Allison Pytlak – Stimson Center) The United Nations Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on the security of and in the use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) concluded its eighth substantive session in July. In the margins of the session, the Stimson Center, together with the governments of Canada and Switzerland, held a side event to present the findings of a newly launched report on improving international cyber accountability and deterring malicious cyber behavior. The report builds on several case studies examining accountability mechanisms and tools from non-cyber threat areas such as arms control, outer space, human rights, and private military and security companies, among others. With only one year left in its mandate, the OEWG is also facing decisions about the future of how the UN will uphold international cyber governance, which has implications for accountability efforts.
Talking Accountability at the United Nations • Stimson Center
(Jon Bateman, Dan Baer, Stephanie A. Bell, Glenn O. Brown, Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar, Deep Ganguli, Peter Henderson, Brodi Kotila, Larry Lessig, Nicklas Berild Lundblad, Janet Napolitano, Deborah Raji, Elizabeth Seger, Matt Sheehan, Aviya Skowron, Irene Solaiman, Helen Toner, and Polina Zvyagina – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) As policymakers around the world grapple with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), much of their attention has focused on highly capable foundation models—those with advanced capabilities across a wide range of tasks, to include the generation of words, images, sounds, and video. Companies, governments, and civil society organizations are urgently debating how to govern such models, as well as the models’ components, supply chains, and the deployed AI systems they ultimately power.
European Union – Canada
(Inga Carry – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) The European Union (EU) is aiming to strengthen its cooperation with like-minded countries to secure its supply of so-called critical raw materials. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen considers Canada a “perfect match” – a resource-rich and reliable partner that shares the EU’s geopolitical interests and sustainability goals. Canada is seeking to diversify its supply chains and counteract the influence of Chinese actors in its mining industry through a policy of friendshoring. To this end, the Canadian government has shown itself to be far more open to cooperation with the EU regarding raw material supply chains and key industries compared to the United States (US) government. It would be beneficial for both sides to deepen this cooperation. However, to truly make this partnership a perfect match, the EU should offer stronger financial incentives for the integration of European and Canadian industries, promote scientific exchange and technical collaboration, and advocate for robust corporate due diligence in supply chains.
European Union – Iran
(Cornelius Adebahr, Barbara Mittelhammer – Carnegie Europe) The momentum created by the incoming EU leadership offers an opportunity for Europe to see the bigger picture on Iran amid rising geopolitical tensions and regional escalation. The Islamic Republic has consolidated its hardline stance, and despite the recent election of an ostensibly reformist president, no systemic changes are imminent. Actors like China and Russia align with Tehran against the West, even as the United States has given up on formulating a policy that goes beyond a reflexive posture of “being tough on Iran.” The EU’s approach toward Iran has neither brought progress on the nuclear file nor reined in a further deterioration of Iranians’ human rights and security.
Making an Inclusive EU Strategy on Iran a Reality – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
European Union – Serbia
(Engjellushe Morina – European Council on Foreign Relations) Lithium plays a central role in the global shift to sustainable and clean energy. It is a crucial component for electric vehicle batteries, among other uses. Since 2021, the European Union has signed partnerships to secure the supply of such critical raw materials with 14 countries, including Argentina, Norway, and Zambia. The bloc aims to transition from fossil fuels to renewables and clean technology and become climate-neutral by 2050. The EU is also formally committed to promoting democracy and the rule of law across the world, but especially in its near-neighbourhood – including the Western Balkans, where many states are candidates for EU membership.
Finding friends: Europe, Serbia, and the lithium catalyst | ECFR
France
(Charles Lichfield, Gustavo Romero – Atlantic Council) The snap parliamentary election called in June by French President Emmanuel Macron produced no absolute majority for any of the country’s three dominant political blocs. There is now widespread uncertainty about who could serve as prime minister. Many looked to the broad-left New Popular Fornt (NFP), which has the most seats, to put forward a candidate. After almost three weeks of infighting they finally agreed on Wednesday to put forward Lucie Castets, a little-known tax fraud official and public servant.
What French economic policy may look like after the Olympics – Atlantic Council
Germany
(Asako Takashima – Japan Institute of International Affairs) Support for the “Traffic Light” coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to deteriorate: its disapproval rating rose from 63% in May to 71% in June. Against this backdrop, voter turnout for the EU parliamentary elections held June 6-9 was 64.8%, the highest since the unification of East and West Germany. When voters were asked whether the policies that determined their votes were “at the European level” or “at the national level,” 38% said “at the European level” and 55% said “at the national level,” reflecting the high level of interest in domestic political issues and thus the unpopularity of the current administration.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
Germany – Israel
(Asako Takashima – Japan Institute of International Affairs) – “The security of Israel is a national policy (Staatsräson) for Germany,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz shortly after the Hamas terrorist acts on October 7, denouncing Hamas and stressing solidarity with Israel. His quick response, given as the Israeli flag was being projected onto the Brandenburg Gate, was dramatic. The chancellor has since often repeated the word “Staatsräson” and defended Israel’s right to self-defense. Internationally, there was also overwhelming criticism of the atrocities committed by Hamas when it suddenly kidnapped civilians from Israel but, after Israel began combat operations against Gaza, observers began pointing out that the attacks might be exceeding the proportionality permitted under international law. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries that had been seeking to establish diplomatic relations or strengthen ties with Israel in recent years have one after another hardened their attitudes, and Arab countries are once again condemning Israel and viewing it as an enemy.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
Greece – Cyprus – Israel
(Michael Harari – BESA Center) In recent years, energy security has become a central issue for many countries, not least those that suffer from political and energy isolation. The Iron Swords War has greatly sharpened Israel’s need for a solution to the problem of damage to, or shortages in, electricity supply in times of crisis. The close relationship that has developed over the past decade between Israel, Greece and Cyprus enables and encourages projects of this kind. One project that has been on the table in recent years is an electrical cable that would connect the three countries. This is an ambitious and expensive project with quite a few question marks regarding its practicality. However, under the circumstances, it is essential to move this strategic issue from policy statements to action. It is time to make decisions and allocate budgets to take advantage of the political opportunity provided by the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek triangle to come up with the kind of energy solution Israel urgently needs.
Haiti
(Jeffsky Poincy – Stimson Center) Haiti faces a complex crisis characterized by acute gang violence and the economic and social struggles of its citizens. Despite international efforts, including the deployment of a Multinational Security Support mission led by Kenya, the security strategy falls short owing to a lack of clear objectives, accountability, and sufficient support for Haitian institutions. To address the multidimensional challenges and ensure the MSS mission’s effectiveness, this paper suggests a new approach focusing on strengthening local security forces and managing the broader gang ecosystem—essential steps for long-term stability.
Rethinking the International Response to Haiti’s Security Crisis • Stimson Center
India
(Vivek Chadha – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Twenty-five years is not a very long time in the life of a nation. Yet, looking back at the 1999 Kargil conflict seems like a generational shift in several ways. While the focus of attention often tends to remain on what more needs to be done, as it should be, however, occasionally, it is revelatory to assess the distance covered over a quarter century as well as to acknowledge the achievements and seek direction for further reforms. Several factors influence the ability of a country to take on national security challenges, including weapon systems that support military manoeuvres and the ability to ramp up production when the chips are down backed by economic and domestic industrial strength. The period since Kargil 1999 reflects the changing realities that have showcased the manner in which the country thinks, prepares and fights its wars.
(Sameer Patil, Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) Terrorist violence, it appears, is making a comeback in Jammu & Kashmir after a lull of a few months. A series of terrorist attacks and encounters in the Jammu region in the last few weeks have led to fears that militancy, which had been in its final gasps, has come back stronger to target the security forces operating in the region. It all began on 9 June 2024, when insurgents attacked a bus carrying pilgrims in Reasi, killing 10 and injuring 33. Two days later, six soldiers were wounded in twin attacks in Doda and Kathua. On 7 July, one army personnel was injured when terrorists attacked a security post in the Rajouri-Poonch area. Another attack followed on 8 July, when heavily armed terrorists killed five soldiers, including a Junior Commissioned Officer and injured six in the Kathua district. Last week, in the Doda district, four army soldiers, an officer and a J&K Police (JKP) officer were killed during an encounter. The Jaish-e-Mohammed-linked shadow groups, the Kashmir Tigers and People’s Anti-Fascist Front, have claimed responsibility for these attacks.
Beyond response: J&K needs proactive strategies for counter-terrorism (orfonline.org)
India – Russia
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) Following Prime Minister’s Modi’s bear hug with President Putin during his two-day official visit in early July, several justifications have been proffered for the Indian leader’s decision visit to Moscow and the deep angst and trepidation it has triggered, especially in the West. Shrill statements such as the one from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine that Modi’s bear hug of Putin was a, “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” are only a dramatic manifestation of what the world gets wrong about New Delhi’s ties with Moscow.
Israel – USA
(Natan Sachs – Brookings) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress occurred on two different levels. There was the substance of the speech itself: a long, impassioned, and detailed defense of Israel as it faces a level of international opprobrium not seen in decades; and there was the political spectacle of the speech—for Israeli and American audiences alike. It was the spectacle that was the real reason it took place.
Netanyahu looks to rejoin a “league of his own” | Brookings
(Shalom Lipner – Atlantic Council) Wing of Zion—Israel’s homemade version of Air Force One—touched down at Joint Base Andrews on July 22, carrying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the United States on a journey of firsts. The refurbished Boeing 767, on its maiden transport of an Israeli premier, escorted Netanyahu on his long-awaited first visit to Washington since President Joe Biden took office in 2021. Their White House meeting on July 25 was Biden’s first interaction with any foreign leader since withdrawing from the presidential race.
Netanyahu comes to Washington on a ‘wing’ and a prayer – Atlantic Council
(Chuck Freilich – Institute for National Security Studies) Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech before both houses of Congress was a work of thought and further proof that he has few competitors in the field of rhetoric, especially one suited to a mostly right-wing American audience.
The Prime Minister’s Speech in Congress—Insights | INSS
Japan
(Timothy Wright – IISS) Japan’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) announced on 4 July that it conducted two tests of a hypersonic glide vehicle in California in March and April 2024. A short video showing the boost phase was also released. The system, known as the Hyper-Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP), has been under development since 2015. The launch tests are the first that have been disclosed since the project started.
Japan tests new hypersonic glide vehicle (iiss.org)
Japan – USA – China
(Jeffrey W. Hornung, Mina Pollmann – RAND Corporation) Russia’s use of disinformation tactics to undermine the Ukrainian government, discredit President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and demoralize the Ukrainian population have put a spotlight on the weaponization of disinformation in wartime. At the same time, China has been increasing its use of such tactics, and the United States and Japan should take steps to protect their alliance from peacetime deployment of these disinformation campaigns. Actors such as Russia and China have helped the U.S. and like-minded countries become increasingly cognizant of disinformation’s potential consequences. While much of the recent analytical focus has been on its role in a crisis, disinformation can have pernicious, real-world effects in peacetime.
Equipping the Japan-U.S. Alliance to Handle China’s Disinformation Operations | RAND
Jordan
(Urban Coningham – RUSI) While the Hashemite Kingdom has long managed to avoid the instability that has gripped many of its neighbours, the current crisis in the Middle East is presenting it with mounting challenges that it will need international support to overcome.
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Siddhant Kishore, Kathryn Tyson, Alexandra Braverman, Andie Parry, Katherine Wells, Marcus Mildenberger, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iraq: A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attacks targeting US forces – Israel: Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. They discussed the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas – Lebanon: An anonymous IRGC Quds Force official claimed that Iran gave electromagnetic munitions to Lebanese Hezbollah. This claim is part of a larger effort by Iran and its Axis of Resistance to deter a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon – Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian emphasized regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues while reiterating his subordination to Khamenei.
Iran Update, July 26, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
NATO
(Stuart Dee, James Black, Lucia Retter – RAND Corporation) In July, NATO leaders gathered in Washington to unveil a raft of new initiatives at the alliance’s 75th Anniversary Summit. These included NATO taking over the coordination of aid to Ukraine—now described as on an “irreversible” path to membership—and an Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge to boost production of arms and equipment, both to support Kyiv and to replenish depleted Western stockpiles after decades of low investment. But near the top of the new NATO Secretary-General’s in-tray will be an urgent question: why are efforts to mobilise the alliance’s industrial base and ramp up production still yielding underwhelming results, over two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine? As allied leaders head home from the latest summit, a new RAND report shows that decades of fragmented and lacklustre investment in the industrial base and its underlying workforce skills, production lines, and supply chains will not yield to quick fixes.
Nigeria
(Monsuru Muritala – French Institute of International Relations) The attention of media and scholars has been focused on the impressive expansion of the Nigerian megacity Lagos, whose population is expected to increase from 16 million in 2024 to around 40 million in 2035. Consequently, less evidence exists about other city categories in Nigeria, such as intermediate or secondary cities. Yet, more recent research on urbanization dynamics in Africa has highlighted the relatively higher urban growth rates in so-called “intermediate cities”.
Russia
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The Russian authorities are set to test new ways of manipulating election results during the Moscow City Duma elections in September. In addition to filtering candidates, they will also expand Russia’s electronic voting system, almost entirely ditching paper ballots. This means it should be easy to guarantee the victory of candidates—however dull and uninspiring—from both the ruling United Russia party and the in-system opposition. It seems likely the Kremlin will then seek to roll out this approach for nationwide parliamentary elections in 2026.
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces’ area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping’s previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia’s main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast – The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces’ AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely – Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26 – The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 – the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defense officials since April 2024 – The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine – The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians’ internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia – Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on July 25 – Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City – The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that the Russian intelligence services appear to ha.ve further integrated Russian forces’ cyber and conventional capabilities.
Turkey – Iraqi Kurdistan
(Michael Rubin – American Enterprise Institute) Turkish forces continue their month-long offensive across the northern fringe of Iraqi Kurdistan. As of July 15, 2024, Turkish jets and drones have carried out more than 380 bombardments and burned more than 250 miles of farmland. The Turkish attacks have been especially hard on the region’s Christian-Assyrian community. After the Islamic State (ISIS) expelled Assyrians a decade ago from their traditional homeland in the Nineveh Plains, the Turkish bombardment now depopulates Assyrian enclaves in the far north of Iraqi Kurdistan.
UAE – Saudi Arabia – Africa
(Ahmed Fawaz Lathif, Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) With scarce arable land and water resources, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia depend heavily on food imports, as do other Gulf countries. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine war, and negative impacts of climate change exacerbated the challenge and exposed the vulnerability of their existing food supply chains. Indeed, the UAE and Saudi Arabia rely significantly on food imports—90 and 80 per cent, respectively. According to some estimates, by 2050, Saudi is projected to import all its food. Unsurprisingly, both countries are expanding their agricultural diplomacy to improve food access and readiness. With 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa has emerged as a potential ally in this regard. By investing in the continent’s immense agricultural potential, they hope to ensure long-term food imports, diversify their economies and spread their influence by projecting soft power.
UK
(Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) Over the last two years, warfare at sea has been conducted at a higher level of intensity than has been seen for decades. The conflict in Ukraine, in which the Russian Black Sea Fleet was rendered ‘functionally inactive’ by a country without a surface fleet, and the ongoing battle in the Red Sea have provided analysts and practitioners of naval warfare with a wealth of empirical evidence. It is thus germane to consider what lessons the Royal Navy might draw from these conflicts as the force continues a process of recapitalisation which will extend into the 2030s.
USA
(Vanda Felbab-Brown – Brookings) On July 25, U.S. law enforcement arrested two leading bosses of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, one of the world’s most powerful criminal groups and a principal supplier of fentanyl to the United States: Ismael Zambada García, known as “El Mayo,” and Joaquín Guzmán López. El Mayo’s arrest is a spectacular tactical success for U.S. law enforcement, especially given the masterful no-shots-fired trickery that led to it. It finally brings justice to the many victims of El Mayo’s violence and drug peddling.
The Sinaloa cartel arrests: Stunning tactical success, strategic blunder? | Brookings
(Chatham House) Bronwen Maddox is joined by chief correspondent at the Washington Post, Dan Balz, political scientist, Dan Drezner, and the director of our US and the Americas Programme, Leslie Vinjamuri, to discuss what a Trump-Harris race will look like, and how the winner might approach America’s global role.
(Ray Block, Jr. – RAND Corporation) For centuries, Black Americans have been battling racism and disenfranchisement—and batting down endless so-called truths. In the process, we’ve developed a powerful sixth sense for separating fact from fiction. Black people have been forced to see the country for what it is, and we have learned to watch our collective backs in the face of persistent attempts to confuse and deceive us by the purposeful spreading of falsehoods. Such spreading of disinformation—specifically the sort that targets a specific race—has a centuries-long history in America. Slave owners regularly spread lies to control perceptions of enslaved Black people and to suppress slave revolts. Since at least the mid-20th century, such tactics have often involved propaganda campaigns designed to discredit Black leaders and undermine the efforts of Black activist organizations.
Black Americans Aren’t Buying Election-Year Falsehoods. Here’s Why. | RAND
USA – Africa
(Aude Darnal, Cham Etienne Bama, Lethabo Sithole, Teniola Tayo, Natika Kantaria – Stimson Center) U.S. lawmakers are revising the African Growth and Opportunity Act with a view to extending the trade program for another 16 years. The legislation is regarded as the cornerstone of economic relations between the United States and African countries, and many in Washington argue that it has contributed to economic growth and prosperity among its participant nations. But some experts have identified flaws in the legislation, which they argue hinders AGOA’s benefits from being evenly distributed across the continent. To improve the program’s effectiveness, African perspectives should be taken into account and lawmakers should reconsider AGOA’s bilateral, non-negotiable terms, including the annual certification review process, which impedes sustainable growth for African firms.
Revising the African Growth and Opportunity Act: Perspectives from Africa • Stimson Center
