Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Liam Karr – Institute for the Study of War) Turkey. Turkey is strengthening its long-standing partnership with Niger across various sectors, which could result in Turkey competing with China and Russia over access to resources and military influence. Turkey also has opportunities to increase economic and military cooperation with Burkina Faso and Mali, but Russia’s larger presence in both countries will pose a greater obstacle – Somalia. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) reclaimed towns from al Shabaab in parts of central and southern Somalia. Somali forces continue to face high costs from large-scale, complex al Shabaab raids that have halted and overturned multiple SFG offensives since 2023, although Somali forces have demonstrated more resiliency to such attacks in recent months thanks to tactical adaptations.
(Joseph Siegle – Brookings) The legality by which leaders come to power is nearly always predictive of their commitment to upholding the rule of law. This is sobering news for Africa. Seven African countries have experienced coups since 2020 and 14 leaders have evaded term limits since 2015. Less than half of recent presidential elections are considered credible.
Africa’s prosperity tied to investing in democracy | Brookings
(Brookings) Artificial intelligence’s acceleration has increased the need for data regulation and privacy protections globally. Chinasa Okolo joins host Landry Signé to discuss AI’s impact on the African continent and the continent’s current policy landscape. Okolo explains why a lack of policy and privacy protection is harmful, and how to design an inclusive AI regulation framework beneficial to all.
Shifting the narrative on AI in Africa | Brookings
Australia
(Nishank Motwani – ASPI The Strategist) The Manhattan Project, a response Germany’s combination of innovation and military power, unleashed nuclear physics on the world. Its success positioned the United States at the forefront of progress in critical technologies and demonstrated that innovation was central both to economic prosperity and national security. Today, in a new era of strategic competition with authoritarian China, liberal democracies, including those in minilateral groupings such as the Quad, AUKUS and NATO, are identifying their own modern day Manhattan Projects. The Australian Government’s announcement earlier this year of an almost $1 billion investment in PsiQuantum confirmed that Australia had set its sights on breakthroughs in quantum computing to usher in a comparable technological revolution.
China
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Matthew Egger, and Alexis Turek – Institute for the Study of War) The CCG continued to expand its “law enforcement activities” to assert the PRC’s claim over the Taiwan Strait. The CCG intruded into Taiwan’s restricted waters around Kinmen and tried to expel Taiwanese fishing vessels near the middle of the Strait – Taiwan and the PRC agreed to resume negotiations about the February 14 capsizing incident that killed two PRC fishermen fleeing the Taiwanese Coast Guard near Kinmen – PRC officials and media slammed Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises as a futile attempt to “resist reunification.” – The PRC held the Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress, which focused on promoting economic development in alignment with national strategic goals – The PRC and Philippines reached a “provisional arrangement” for rotation and resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, though significant points of disagreement remain – The PRC hosted a “reconciliation dialogue” for Palestinian factions in which Hamas and Fatah signed a joint declaration that stated their intention to form a temporary post-war unity government in Gaza and the West Bank.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Meia Nouwens, Erik Green – IISS) The CCP announced structural reforms and measures to attract foreign investment. These reforms reflect technical adjustments rather than strategic shifts, while improvements to China’s resilience, military modernisation and national-security priorities will continue to shape the party’s economic policies.
The CCP’s third plenum: economic reforms, strategic continuity (iiss.org)
Cybersecurity
(William H. Dutton, Luna Rohland – World Economic Forum) Last week, businesses and governments worldwide were disrupted by a major IT outage. The global outage was caused by a bugged patch pushed by one of the world’s largest cyber security providers and estimated to cost $1 billion. The outage was a stark reminder of the importance of cyber resilience in an increasingly digital world.
Global IT outage: A cyber alarm heard around the world | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Chris Grove – ASPI The Strategist) Cyber defences can be alert to malware. It’s much harder to be alert to intruders who use the targeted system’s own resources against the owner. In cybersecurity, such attack methods are called ‘living off the land’ (LOTL), and they’re practiced by the Chinese group APT40, the subject of a 9 July cybersecurity advisory from eight countries, including Australia.
Emerging Technologies
(Eleni Kemene, Bart Valkhof, Thapelo Tladi – World Economic Forum) Tech companies are reporting increased emissions due to running the data centres that power AI. But AI tools can also help facilitate the energy transition. A multistakeholder approach, like The World Economic Forum’s Artificial Intelligence Governance Alliance, is vital to help balance AI’s resource use and benefits.
AI and energy: Will AI reduce emissions or increase demand? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
European Union
(Vassilis Ntousas, Zsuzsanna Végh – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The new European Parliament (EP) met on July 16, its first convening since an election saw the bloc shift markedly to the right. The legislature will now help steer the EU’s fortunes for the next half-decade. But despite the changes, there was little immediate impact on parliamentary business. The parliament’s weakened but remaining centrist majority reelected centrist-conservative Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president and Roberta Metsola as EP president while excluding two new far-right groups, the Patriots for Europe and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), from power. The moves, however, may not set a precedent for the next five years.
The Far Right is Out—So Far | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
European Union – Israel
(Hugh Lovatt – European Council on Foreign Relations) Last Friday’s landmark ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) amounts to a wholesale rejection of Israel’s decades-long policies in Gaza and the West Bank. The court found that Israel’s continued presence in the entirety of the Palestinian territory is unlawful, and should be brought to an end as rapidly as possible. In addition, it found that the separate legal regimes applying to Israelis and Palestinians in the Palestinian territory constitute a violation of international laws prohibiting racial discrimination and apartheid under Article 3 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. Now, rather than pursuing the chimera of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, Europe should focus its immediate efforts on directly challenging Israel’s unlawful practices, and incentivising a future Israeli move towards de-occupation.
Unlawful practices: How Europe can challenge Israel’s presence in Palestine | ECFR
Gender Equality
(Cherry Hitkari, Genevieve Donnellon-May – Lowy The Interpreter) Oceans are essential to global food supplies. And collectively, the G20 nations constitute 45 per cent of the world’s coastlines and 21 per cent of its exclusive economic zones. This makes the grouping a critical forum for not just climate regulation and global connectivity but also for attaining sustainable economic growth. The upcoming G20 Summit in Brazil is set unveil a dedicated “Ocean 20” policy to foster greater cooperation between governments, policymakers, researchers, and civil society groups. The November meeting will build on past efforts such as the Osaka Blue Ocean Vision and the Chennai High-Level Principles for a Sustainable and Resilient Blue/Ocean-based Economy. But there is a catch. Such measures are unlikely to produce desired results until the international community recognises the fundamental link between gender equality and ocean sustainability and the opportunities this presents are sincerely and rapidly pursued.
Bring women to the table to talk ocean sustainability | Lowy Institute
Germany
(Ulrike Franke, Jana Puglierin – European Council on Foreign Relations) When the extreme right and outspokenly Germanophobe party National Rally (RN) did not win the most seats in the French parliament, a sigh of relief could be heard in Berlin. The next French government – whoever will form it – in all likelihood won’t immediately end all Franco-German defence cooperation, or leave NATO’s integrated military command, as RN contemplated.
Home alone: Germany’s security and defence policy when its closest allies are gone | ECFR
India
(James Crabtree – European Council on Foreign Relations) Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia was greeted with predictable disappointment in European capitals. The trip marked the Indian prime minister’s first international foray following his re-election in June, and his first to Moscow in nearly a decade. The sight of Modi in a bear hug with Vladimir Putin rekindled old worries about India’s enduring Russian ties and the sincerity of more recent pledges to build new partnerships in the West. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was especially blunt, describing Modi’s choice of destination as “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.”
Forget the bear hug: India’s gradual turn from Russia, towards the West | ECFR
(Rahul Jaybhay – ASPI The Strategist) Despite India’s ardent wish, the world is nowhere close to becoming a multipolar system with India as one of the poles, or centres of power. Instead, today’s global system is best described as partially unipolar and nearing bipolar, with US influence waning and China arriving. India’s best bet lies in embracing this bipolar competition and cultivating deeper ties with the US.
India is deluding itself: there’s no multipolar world | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
India – China
(Antoine Levesques – IISS) India is gambling that it can both steal a page from China’s playbook, earn China’s consideration and maintain stability on favourable terms.
India–China relations under the Modi 3.0 government (iiss.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Kathrine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Netanyahu Visits Washington, DC: US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25. Harris told Netanyahu that it is “time for this war to end” and that “it is time to get this [ceasefire] deal done – Gaza Strip: US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, who could be palatable to all parties, as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. The proposed 2,500-strong Palestinian security force is probably insufficient to counter Hamas’ future attempts to reassert control in the Gaza Strip, regardless of who leads the force. Hamas would need to agree to Dahlan or any other leader unless it is militarily defeated and unable to resist that force. Failing to defeat Hamas militarily will risk a resumption of de-facto or de-jure Hamas control in the Gaza Strip – Iraq: Two unspecified security officials cited by Reuters reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched four rockets at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar, on July 25 – Iran: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami claimed that Iran had exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries in an interview with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on July 22.
Iran Update, July 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Myanmar
(Arkoprabho Hazra – Lowy The Interpreter) “BIMSTEC” is one of the many technical and not-quite-pronounceable acronyms that pepper conversation about diplomatic affairs. It stands for the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation – and this year is shaping as pivotal for this regional organisation. Although operational since 1997, BIMSTEC only adopted its charter in May this year. A second Foreign Ministers’ retreat was held in July, and a sixth summit will take place in September. And in the background of this burst of activity sits the violence in Myanmar, one of seven member states in BIMSTEC and a country beset by civil war since the 2021 coup.
Could BIMSTEC be the answer to the Myanmar question? | Lowy Institute
Pakistan
(Madiha Afzal – Brookings) On July 15, Pakistan’s government announced plans to ban the country’s main opposition party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and begin proceedings of high treason against its leaders, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The announcement received immediate and widespread pushback, and it is unclear whether the government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, will move forward with the ban, which is unlikely to hold up in the country’s courts. Regardless, the announcement has plainly revealed the new government’s own weakness and deep political insecurity, and that its path forward is uncertain.
In its battle against PTI, Pakistan’s new government exposes its own weakness | Brookings
Rare Earths
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Have depressed rare earths prices been engineered by the Chinese state to snuff out non-Chinese rivals before they get going? Or do they simply reflect a weak market, with demand rising more slowly than was expected by the promotors of a slew of new projects? The chief executive of Australian mineral sands miner Iluka, Tom O’Leary, argues that the Chinese government is manipulating the market. ‘China’s dominance of the rare earths supply chain has led to market failure, and this presents an existential threat to manufacturing in Western and like-minded countries,’ O’Leary told a mining conference in Japan in June.
Russia – Arctic
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia currently has the largest fleet of icebreakers in the Arctic. Its lead over others, however, is somewhat deceptive as most are small and devoted to clearing ice from harbors rather than keeping the Northern Sea Route open. The United States, Canada, and Finland, with much smaller fleets, have now committed to building 90 icebreakers by 2030. This, along with global warming and an expanding Chinese fleet, will dash Moscow’s hopes of dominating the region and its resources. Moscow may decide to act in the Arctic before losing its overwhelming advantage, setting the stage for possible moves that could trigger a dramatic expansion in East-West tensions.
Russia Facing Loss of Icebreaker Dominance in Arctic – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Andie Parry, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. – The Russian military command’s willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time – The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) – Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin’s own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an “illegitimate” leader of Ukraine – The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states – The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe – Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia – Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24 – Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne – Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on July 24 granting deferments from military conscription to employees of the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office and Investigative Committee who have higher education and special ranks starting in September 2024.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(Bonnie S. Glaser, Eva Seiwert – German Marshall Fund of the United States) A conversation between Bonnie Glaser and Eva Seiwert discussing the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its recent 24th summit, and its place in China’s foreign policy.
Southeast Asia
(Leisha Lister, Indira Rosenthal – Lowy The Interpreter) Child marriage is a global problem that cuts across countries, cultures, and religions – and the ASEAN region is no exception. Child marriage is considered a form of forced marriage as children cannot consent. Girls are the primary, but not exclusive, target and the numbers are high. For example, 11% of women in Vietnam (majority being ethnic Mong women), 33% of Laos females and an estimated 1.2 million females aged 20 to 24 in Indonesia, marry before the age of 18. Meanwhile, Thailand is one of 20 countries with laws that protect men from criminal prosecution for rape if they marry their victim.
Taiwan
(Grant Wyeth – Lowy The Interpreter) While defending itself from China is clearly Taiwan’s most pressing concern, increasingly it has also been seeking to differentiate itself from its neighbour. Its democratisation in the 1990s is the obvious contrast, but the freedom of press, speech and assembly that flowed from this has opened the door for an array of new cultural influences too. Nowadays, the Taiwanese public overwhelmingly see themselves as a distinct nation, and this feeling is strongest within its globally connected youth.
Why Taiwan should embrace multiculturalism | Lowy Institute
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) It’s early days, but the signs are strong that Taiwan’s new government will insist on much more of a porcupine strategy for national defence than many officers in the country’s hidebound armed forces have been willing to accept. If it succeeds, the island should be far more capable of fending off a conquest by China, and the armed forces will have to give up some of the traditional and glamorous but highly vulnerable weaponry that they are so fond of.
Taiwan may yet become a porcupine | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
UAE – China
(Albert Vidal Ribe, Joseph Dempsey – IISS) Joint exercises between the UAE Air Force and China’s PLA Air Force raise questions about the potential for information gathering on Western aircraft by Beijing , and point to the growing ties between the two countries, which has caused concern in Washington.
More than a Mirage: UAE combat aircraft in China (iiss.org)
UK
(Karin von Hippel – RUSI) As the US prepares to choose between two radically different pathways, the message for UK policymakers is clear: Europe matters.
(Ann M. Fitz-Gerald, Halyna Padalko – RUSI) With the 2024 NATO Washington summit now concluded, the UK must address the significant threat posed by AI and disinformation to global security.
(Marion Messmer – Chatham House) The new Labour government’s ‘Great British Energy’ bill sets out an ambitious agenda for the UK’s transition to net zero. The bill establishes a new publicly owned energy company to own and advance clean energy projects, including new nuclear power plants. The government has said that it wants to invest in the long-term security of the nuclear power sector, focusing on its role as an engine for good jobs and for helping the UK achieve energy security and advancing towards its net-zero goals.
USA
(Heather Hurlburt – Chatham House) Freshman US senators, presidential candidates, and sitting vice presidents are frequently advised to say as little as possible about foreign affairs, in order not to distract an American public that supposedly cares little for them. This has left reporters, think tankers and foreign diplomats alike scrambling to discern where presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may differ from President Joe Biden.
(William H. Frey – Brookings) Last month, the Census Bureau released new data for geographic areas which provide a glimpse of how the nation’s population has been changing over the first third of the 2020s decade. It emphasizes that people of color are the main drivers of population growth for the nation as well as shifts across states, metropolitan areas and counties.
USA – China
(Ben Scott – Lowy The Interpreter) No one should have been surprised by Donald Trump’s latest expression of reluctance to defend Taiwan. But many were, including those with skin in the game. Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and related tech companies plunged after Trump said Taiwan should be paying for the United States to defend it, “doesn’t give us anything”, and had taken “almost 100%” of the US semiconductor industry.
Don’t expect Trump 2.0 to be so tough on China | Lowy Institute
USA – European Union
(Alix Frangeul-Alves, Gesine Weber – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The results of the US elections in November will impact Washington’s policy towards the EU across virtually all policy areas. The new EU Commission must anticipate and prepare for potential outcomes and deepening trends in the United States.
The United States’ EU Policy After 2024 | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
USA – Israel
(Sanam Vakil – Chatham House) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress comes after nine months of war in Gaza following the 7 October attacks. Netanyahu arrived in Washington seeking to secure bipartisan support for Israel and to lay out his country’s blueprint for the future or so-called ‘day after’. The speech, his fourth to the legislature, failed to achieve either.
USA – NATO
(Kristine Berzina – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The future of transatlantic security policy is undetermined in this hot political summer. The Washington NATO summit was the concluding act of the political moment that started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Much of what Kyiv has asked for in the past two years is being delivered, from ATACMS to F16s to Ukraine’s “irreversible” path to NATO. Allies are also putting money and industrial output toward defending “every inch” of territory. Even policy toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has leapt forward. NATO called the PRC a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine” and a “systemic challenge to Euro-Atlantic security.”