From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, Australia, Belarus, Belarus-Russia, China-Taiwan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Georgia-US, Indonesia, Middle East, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, US, US-China, Counter-Terrorism, Military Trends, Davos 2025 (all the sessions)
Africa
(Liam Karr, Kathryn Tyson – Institute for the Study of War)
Russia. Russia has continued to strengthen and expand its military presence in Libya and Mali as it withdraws assets from Syria. The Kremlin’s equipment buildup in Mali is likely unrelated to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and instead part of the Kremlin’s plans to continue to consolidate control of the Russian military presence in Mali under the Ministry of Defense–controlled Africa Corps. The Kremlin’s decision to send armored vehicles to Mali, particularly T72 tanks, is significant in light of Russia’s significant vehicle losses in Ukraine.
Sudan. The SAF continued to advance in northern Khartoum to relieve besieged SAF troops and dislodge the Rapid Support Forces from the capital. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) broke the siege on the SAF Headquarters in Khartoum on January 24 for the first time since the war began in April 2023. The recapture of Khartoum is a strategic objective for the SAF that supports its grand strategic aim of establishing itself as the only legitimate power in Sudan.
DRC. Rwandan-backed M23 rebels are advancing towards Goma, a provincial capital in eastern DRC, and say that they intend to capture the town, which is a major escalation in the group’s publicly stated aims and would exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in eastern DRC. M23’s advances increase the risk of clashes between M23 and allied Rwandan forces and UN and SADC forces that are supporting the FARDC. Such engagements would increase the diplomatic and military costs for M23 and Rwanda to capture Goma. M23 advances into South Kivu province are also setting conditions to significantly expand the conflict in eastern DRC. M23’s advances will strengthen the group’s control over critical mineral resources and supply lines to Rwanda. The timing of the Rwandan-backed M23 offensive indicates an effort to maximize its position in currently paused negotiations after peace talks between the DRC and Rwanda collapsed in December 2024.
Somalia. Somali security forces in Puntland, northern Somalia, have degraded the ISS with a counterinsurgency offensive but have not set conditions to weaken or defeat ISS permanently in the long term. The Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) will be able to reconstitute itself if the Puntland offensive does not significantly degrade the group’s revenue streams and set conditions to maintain pressure on ISS’s porous support zones. ISS has sought to defend its support zones and deter security forces from interfering in its support zones without engaging in decisive battles that would draw additional pressure from security forces. These tactics support ISS’s long-term strategic goal of acting as an administrative node for the IS global network.
Sahel. The Alliance of Sahel States created a joint force of 5,000 troops that will deploy in the coming weeks. Increased ground operations will be necessary to degrade the very large and strong insurgent support zones along the borders of the Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. – Africa File, January 24, 2025: Russia Continues Pivot to Libya and Mali; SAF Advances in Khartoum; M23 Marches on Goma; IS Somalia Down but Not Out; AES Joint Force | Institute for the Study of War
Australia
(Jeremy Stredwick – ASPI The Strategist)
The Australian Defence Force needs a new way to recruit and retain hard-to-find experts, such as specialist engineers. Current systems do not allow for the flexibility that the 21st century demands, nor do they match industry salary standards. – The ADF needs more specialists. To get them, it needs more flexibility | The Strategist
(Laura Salt – Lowy The Interpreter)
Embedding First Nations perspectives, experiences and interests into Australia’s foreign policy does more than project an image of a more inclusive Australia. It makes a substantial contribution to achieving key Australian interests. There are some commonalities in approach across different countries who have sought to better incorporate the interests of their Indigenous Peoples into foreign policy. Principles of collaboration and mutual respect often form the foundation. Canada offers an example. Good policymaking effectively engages those communities it impacts, as well as draws from relevant experience to make it stronger. – How First Nations knowledge makes foreign policy stronger | Lowy Institute
Belarus
(Nathaniel Myers – German Marshall Fund of the United States)
Europe and the United States host growing communities of individuals and organizations that have been forced to flee countries with authoritarian regimes because of their pro-democracy activities. Can these exiled actors continue to contribute meaningfully to their countries’ democratic development? If so, how can Western policymakers and donors most effectively support them and strengthen their efforts? Belarus presents an instructive case study for answering these questions. – The Strategic Potential of Democratic Exiles: Belarusian Experiences | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Belarus – Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation)
In advance of his sham re-election, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has launched an expanded campaign against Roman Catholics, the 14 percent of his nation who have been the most opposed to the Minsk strongman in the past.
Moscow has joined this effort to help Lukashenka, defend Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “Russian world,” and fight efforts inside Belarus to seek autocephaly for Belarus’s Orthodox church.
These efforts may ebb after Lukashenka is safely “re-elected,” but hostility to Roman Catholicism in both countries is likely to continue. It could expand, given that Russian commentators are calling for treating Catholics as harshly as Jehovah’s Witnesses. – Moscow and Minsk Attack Catholicism to Defend Lukashenka and Russian World – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, and Grant Morgan – Institute for the Study of War)
The KMT-led Taiwanese legislature passed significant cuts and freezes to the 2025 national budget. The budget reductions will almost certainly impede the DPP-led administration’s ability to function and will undermine Taiwan’s resilience against PRC pressure.
Taiwan’s two undersea internet cables between Taiwan itself and its offshore Matsu Islands were disconnected within one week due to natural deterioration. Taiwan restored the internet to Matsu with an emergency microwave transmission system, showing significant progress in strengthening emergency communications infrastructure since 2023.
The PRC announced that it will soon resume group travel to Taiwan for residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province. PRC officials and media continued to blame Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for creating obstacles to cross-strait exchanges, however.
The Philippines and PRC agreed to strengthen dialogue and bilateral cooperation efforts during the first high-level bilateral exchange to discuss South China Sea disputes to occur since July 2024. These talks occurred amid a spike in tensions between the two countries due to coercive PRC behavior in the Scarborough Shoal and the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). – China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 24, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News)
Intensifying hostilities in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo involving the non-state armed group M23 have caused further mass displacement in the mineral-rich region, with fears that the regional capital Goma could come under attack, UN agencies warned on Friday. – DR Congo emergency: Fears that regional capital Goma faces attack | UN News
Georgia – US
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation)
At the end of 2024, the United States imposed financial sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire and the informal leader of Georgia, for undermining democratic processes and enabling Russian influence. The sanctions included freezing select assets and restricting transactions.
Opposition leaders welcomed the sanctions, citing Ivanishvili’s role in eroding democratic institutions and derailing Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations while advocating for broader measures targeting his family and affiliates.
Georgian Dream leaders have defended Ivanishvili, claiming sanctions were retaliation for resisting anti-Russia pressure. The party hopes for diminished Western scrutiny under the new U.S. administration despite ongoing public unrest and international criticism. – Informal Georgian Leader Bidzina Ivanishvili Faces U.S. Sanctions – Jamestown
Indonesia
(Hilman Palaon – Lowy The Interpreter)
Apple is struggling to secure approval to sell the iPhone 16 in Indonesia. While it may seem to be a financial issue, the real challenge is navigating local regulations and understanding the government’s underlying intentions. The Indonesian government isn’t simply asking foreign companies to pour money into the economy – it’s enforcing policies designed to encourage domestic economic growth, technology transfer, and job creation. – Nice try, Apple, but Indonesia wants a restart | Lowy Institute
Middle East
(Carolyn Moorman, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip: Israel stated that the list of four female soldier hostages whom Hamas will release would violate the ceasefire agreement.
Lebanon: Israel announced that the IDF will refrain from withdrawing from southern Lebanon by January 26.
Syria: The governing authority in northeastern Syria announced plans to release IDPs from the heavily ISIS-penetrated al Hol refugee camp.
Iraq: Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid claimed that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have stopped military activities after insistence from the Iraqi federal government. – Iran Update, January 24, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russia
(Paul Dibb – ASPI The Strategist)
This essay examines the sources of Russian power and conduct from an historical, cultural and geopolitical perspective. It aims to help assessment of Russia’s future behaviour. My approach is based on the essay The Sources of Soviet Conduct written by the famous US State Department diplomat and leading Russian expert George Kennan (under the pseudonym ‘X’) in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1947. Kennan was struggling to get Washington to understand the threat from the Soviet Union so soon after the end of World War II, when the USSR had been an ally of the United States. – The sources of Russian conduct | The Strategist
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation)
Russia remains at the forefront of global nuclear innovation, leveraging state-owned enterprise Rosatom to expand partnerships, build reactors, and strengthen relationships with non-Western nations. This gives Moscow more avenues to bolster its economy amid Western sanctions.
Rosatom is currently conducting $200 billion in projects across 40 international sites, including advanced reactor development in Uzbekistan, plants in Türkiye, Latin America, and Africa, and investments in uranium enrichment and nuclear medicine applications.
Russia’s sustained investment in nuclear energy positions it as a key player in decarbonized power. This strategy strengthens Moscow’s economic ties with strategic partners and drives long-term growth in energy exports. – Russia’s Nuclear Sector Capitalizes on Global Nuclear Revival – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Zelensky signed the decree in September 2022 banning negotiations with Putin in direct response to Putin’s illegal annexation of four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine and after months of negotiations in which Russia continued to demand Ukraine’s full capitulation.
However, Zelensky has consistently signaled his willingness to negotiate with Russia and make certain compromises in pursuit of peace following the 2022 decree banning formal negotiations with Putin.
Putin meanwhile continues to signal to both his domestic and global audiences that he is not interested in peace short of his full demands and remains committed to Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
Putin is attempting to leverage the 2022 decree as a strawman to hide the reality of his disinterest in negotiations and to sow discord between Ukraine and its Western allies.
Putin also attempted to position himself as Trump’s equal during his interview, reinforcing his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.
Putin demonstrated that he is worried about the effect that lower oil prices would have on his domestic stability and ability to wage his war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is attempting to revive its information operation aimed at deterring the US and other Western states from providing further military assistance to Ukraine.
The Kremlin is framing the new 2025 Union State Security Concept as completely superseding the original 1999 Security Concept, indicating that this new agreement may be more expansive than the original and will further forward the Kremlin’s effort to annex Belarus.
Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries on the night of January 23 to 24 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions near Toretsk. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
US
(Susan Hutchinson – Lowy The Interpreter)
During his inauguration speech this week, President Trump notably redefined American gender policy. Within a few breaths, he also said he would “sign an order to stop our warriors from being subjected to radical political theories and social experiments while on duty. It’s going to end immediately. Our armed forces will be free to focus on their sole mission: defeating America’s enemies.”. It is difficult not to think this will mean an end to US implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. – What does the Trump presidency mean for Women, Peace and Security? | Lowy Institute
US – China
(Lindsay Gorman – German Marshall Fund of the United States)
The second Donald Trump administration inherits a Washington significantly more unified on the technology threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and on the imperative for American innovation competitiveness. Allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific have begun to come along, even if some more readily than others. But the nascent and fragile consensus must hold, and a kick in the pants is needed for democracies to win the strategic technology competition vis-à-vis autocrats. – Technology: The Race is On | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Counter-Terrorism
(UN Security Council)
On 24 January, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement on counter-terrorism. The presidential statement was proposed by Algeria. – Counter-Terrorism: Adoption of Presidential Statement : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Military Trends
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter)
The new year has begun with a rush of events. In Europe, governments are posturing for the arrival of the second Donald Trump administration. On his first day in office, Trump signed around 100 executive orders. In Ukraine, both sides continue their brutal and bitter ground and aerial attacks, seeking to position themselves for any negotiations in 2025. In the Middle East, Syria remains unsettled after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, while Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah. Iran, drastically weakened over the past year, watches on nervously as the man it allegedly tried to assassinate returns to the White House. In the Pacific, China has unveiled two new stealthy aircraft, launched naval barges suitable for an invasion of Taiwan, and continues its coercion against the Philippines, Taiwan and other neighbours. These events indicate that the year ahead will be at least as uncertain, violent and chaotic as 2024. However, besides the fighting and posturing of different actors across the globe, key trends will affect the capacity and sustainability of military forces and influence the future of war. Here are five key trends to watch in 2025. – Military trends to watch in 2025 | Lowy Institute
Davos 2025
(Peter Kodwo Turkson, Sir Mark Vlasic – WEF)
Message from Pope Francis – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Jean-Noël Barrot, Radoslaw Tomasz Sikorski, Roberta Metsola, Andrii Sybiha, Yuliia Svyrydenko, Edgars Rinkēvičs, Stephanie Flanders – WEF)
The war against Ukraine has taken new directions including the surprise offensive in Kursk and permission to use ally-supplied weapons on Russian territory. Yet, Western support for Ukraine continues to come under greater pressure, accelerating the prospect of negotiations on a peace deal. As the full-scale invasion enters its fourth year, what does the future hold for Ukraine in 2025? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Inger Andersen, Hein Schumacher, Sarah Lamaison, Diana Olick, Dina Ercilia Boluarte, Dion Travers George, Alicia Bárcena Ibarra – WEF)
In December 2024, over 170 countries gathered to conclude a global treaty to reach a plastic pollution-free world by 2040. While negotiations were inconclusive, the countries sought to complete the process in 2025, highlighting an urgent, time-bound need to bridge remaining areas of divergence. What will it take to land the treaty to end plastic pollution and how can business and government be supported to tackle the issue in the interim? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Erika Kraemer Mbula, Hisayuki Idekoba, Amy Pope, Nacho De Marco, David Bach – WEF)
Within a generation, lower-income countries will have 50% more workers than higher-income countries. Digital technologies hold the potential to allow more geographic inclusion for the global workforce, while the revival of industrial policy promises to bring manufacturing jobs “back home” in some regions. What will be the new geography of jobs? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(John Morrison – WEF)
As forced labour continues to affect people worldwide, emerging datasets offer critical insights into its scope and impact. This session assesses the strengths and limitations of current data, identifying areas of progress and ongoing gaps and how leaders can leverage this information to drive meaningful, lasting change. The Global Situation Space combines NASA time-lapse satellite imagery and geospatial and econometric data with predictive modelling. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Emmanuel de Merode, Justin Langan, Mindahi Crescencio Bastida Munoz, Cristina Mittermeier, Johanna Hoffman, Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, Joyeeta Gupta – WEF)
Granting nature legal personhood involves recognizing ecosystems’ rights to exist, thrive and regenerate. This legal framework empowers communities to protect natural resources by allowing lawsuits on behalf of rivers, forests and other natural entities. What are the opportunities and challenges in granting nature legal personhood? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Samir Saran, Matthew Prince, Ravi Agrawal, Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, Andrius Kubilius, Joe Kaeser – WEF)
From disruptions to critical infrastructure to cyber biothreats, geopolitical crises are extending into uncharted territories. How can the international community move towards a detente in cyberspace – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Dava Newman, Yann LeCun, Ina Turpen Fried – WEF)
With AI, space exploration and biotechnology advancing rapidly, some see these innovations as solutions to humanity’s greatest challenges, while others raise concerns about ethics, society and inequality. In this town hall, leaders debate how to responsibly harness emerging technologies to maximize benefits while minimizing risks. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Svein Tore Holsether, Rebecca Anderson, Ignacio S. Galán, Catherine MacGregor, Rodi Guidero, Wopke Hoekstra – WEF)
As the world approaches the halfway point in this Decade of Action, the window is rapidly closing to demonstrate and commercialize emerging climate technologies. Despite strong demand signals, these projects are not reaching final investment decisions fast enough to be scaled up by 2050. How are the early adopters of net-zero technologies working within and across sectors to overcome financial constraints and grow in adoption and scale? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Randi Weingarten, Lawrence H. Summers, Jonathan Greenblatt, Jennifer Schenker – WEF)
The alarming rise of antisemitism globally demands coordinated action as online discourse spills over into the real world. In this 80th anniversary year of the liberation of Auschwitz, how can we effectively counter this threat? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Thomas Thune Andersen, Alicia Bárcena Ibarra, Karen Sack, Chavalit Frederick Tsao, Barbara Karuth-Zelle – WEF)
The ocean economy contributes over $2.5 billion to global GDP annually and supports nearly 350 million jobs worldwide. How can key ocean-reliant sectors like shipping, ports, food, energy and tourism drive a regenerative ocean economy that balances economic growth, social prosperity and marine conservation? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Maria Leptin, Max Tegmark, Michael Hengartner, Richard Hatchett, Ramin Hasani – WEF)
From the development of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to life-saving vaccines, the history of innovation shows that fundamental science plays a critical role. With AI tools rapidly transforming data-driven science and industry research funding outpacing academic spending, what is the outlook for fresh directions in scientific explorations? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Ellana Lee, Michael Froman, Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez, Tulsi Naidu, Sugiono, José Manuel Ramos Horta – WEF)
With heightened geopolitical tensions in multiple regions casting uncertainty for the global economy, several hotspots in the Asia-Pacific region have the potential to upend global growth and disrupt supply chains beyond repair. How can the region avoid further escalation amid shifting power balances, divergent strategic interests and territorial complexities impacting regional security dynamics? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Annette Mosman, Charles Pellegrin, Nadia Calviño, Jörg Kukies, Elisabeth Svantesson – WEF)
Europe’s triple objectives of technology competitiveness, a decarbonized economy and effective defence have been priced at €800 billion a year in fresh money even as national treasuries are depleted and demographic decline places pressure on the region’s social safety nets. With shallow and fragmented capital and banking markets – reflecting a still incomplete European Capital Markets Union – but high levels of private savings, what tools can help Europe bridge the gap? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Gilberto Tomazoni, Dani Rodrik, Haslinda Amin, Teresa Ribera, Al Gore – WEF)
OECD countries are expected to spend a yearly budget of 2% of their GDP on green industrial policies in the coming years, a tenfold increase from pre-COVID times. As governments in advanced economies multiply efforts to combat climate change and restore the prospects of the middle class in their countries, they risk closing traditional global pathways to development. How can we accelerate climate mitigation while reducing global poverty and protecting workers and consumers in advanced economies? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Kenneth Rogoff, Valérie Urbain, Matthew Blake – WEF)
An integrated global financial system, connecting central and commercial banks, insurers and asset managers and investors across borders, is crucial for economic growth and human development. Combating increasing fragmentation enables effective channelling of savings and investment in small and medium-sized enterprises, the innovation economy and communities. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
