From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Afghanistan, China-US, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Middle East, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, South Korea-US-China, Sudan, Syria, UN-League of Arab States, US, US-Latin America, US-Venezuela, Davos 2025 (all the sessions)
Afghanistan
(UN News)
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has taken an historic step towards addressing the “unacceptable” systemic repression of Afghan women, girls and LGBTQI+ individuals by the Taliban. – Afghanistan: ICC seeks arrest warrants for Taliban leaders over gender-based persecution | UN News
China – US
(Xie Tao – Brookings)
The United States is the only country in the world with both the capability and the intent to significantly shape China’s domestic and external environment. Meanwhile, the president is the most influential actor in U.S. foreign policy. These two factors combine to make the quadrennial presidential election the obsession of Chinese government officials, journalists, academics, and pundits. They try their best not only to predict and explain presidential election results but also to forecast China-U.S. relations over the next four years – What do Chinese analysts expect for China-US relations under Trump 2.0?
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News)
Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement issued by his Spokesperson noted the Rwandan-backed rebels seizure of Sake, in South Kivu, “which increases the threat” to the regional capital Goma – all of which is “heightening the threat of a regional war.” Rwanda denies any direct involvement with M23 fighters. Since the UN Mission withdrew from South Kivu in June 2024, peacekeepers have defended key positions in North Kivu, including Goma and Sake, where clashes between the M23, the Congolese Armed Forces and other armed groups have continued. Guterres voices alarm over M23 rebel offensive in DR Congo, ‘devastating toll’ on civilians | UN News
Middle East
(Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Siddhant Kishore, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Annika Ganzeveld, Avery Borens, Victoria Penza, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Turkey and Syria: Turkey has reportedly made an agreement with imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to disarm the PKK. Ocalan will reportedly publicly call on the PKK to “lay down arms” on February 15.
SDF Negotiations: The Syrian Interim Defense Minister said that the interim government is continuing to negotiate with the SDF but that “if we have to use force, we will be ready.” His comment is the most explicit threat an interim government official has made to use military action against the SDF.
HTS Deployment: The HTS-led Department of Military Operations seized a swath of strategically significant territory near the Zamla oil field, south of Raqqa, in the Syrian Badia on January 23. The Department of Military Operations forces deployed to a strategically significant position, from which they could pressure the SDF salient south of Lake Assad.
Iraq: The integration of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi security establishment must be predicated on a commitment by the militias to stop abiding by Iranian orders and a commitment by the Iraqi federal government to respond to any militia attack on US or allied interests in the Middle East. – Iran Update, January 23, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(UN News)
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported on Wednesday that large volumes of aid continue to flow into Gaza through the Erez and Zikim crossings in the north, and Kerem Shalom in the south – reaching areas that had been inaccessible during the conflict. Humanitarian partners on the ground also noted significant improvements in operations with the return of law and order following periods of intense looting of convoys by criminal gangs, enabling aid organizations to scale up their efforts. – UN scales up humanitarian response in Gaza as ceasefire offers respite | UN News
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Russia is reportedly planning to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, artillery systems, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Kursk Oblast to support Russian long-range fire operations.
The Kremlin appears to be growing increasingly concerned about perceptions of Russia’s economic instability.
Russian forces recently executed at least six unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
The Kremlin is reportedly taking measures to protect industrial facilities in Russian border regions from Ukrainian strikes. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Thomas Graham – Council on Foreign Relations)
President Donald Trump will find that it will take much time and effort to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war that advances U.S. interests and burnishes his reputation as a peacemaker. Because Kyiv faces deteriorating conditions, it should be easier to persuade it to negotiate seriously than it will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who believes he is making progress toward achieving his maximal goals. The key to getting him to think otherwise is to convince him that time is not on his side. That requires action in four areas: articulation of a shared Western and Ukrainian vision of success; continued support for Ukraine’s war effort and its integration into the Euro-Atlantic community; resistance to Russia, including targeted sanctions, ramped-up weapons production, and pressure on its partners; and incentives for Russia such as an offer to restore more normal diplomatic relations. – Toward a Settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War | Council on Foreign Relations
South Korea- US – China
(Brookings)
Seoul and Washington have moved in near lockstep the past two-and-a-half years during the administrations of President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Joe Biden. However, the anticipated intensification of U.S.-China competition under President Donald Trump, and political uncertainty following Yoon’s impeachment may portend a recalibration of Seoul’s relationship with Washington and Beijing. – How will South Korea navigate US-China competition in 2025?
Sudan
(The Soufan Center)
The conflict in Sudan has seen indiscriminate bombings, extrajudicial executions, and the use of starvation as a weapon of war and yet despite this, has remained on the back pages, overtaken by attention on Gaza and the war in Ukraine. Before leaving office, the Biden administration and the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against both sides in the conflict—the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armes Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Numerous external actors have been parties to the conflict, fueling their respective proxies with financing, weapons, and logistical support. With a new administration taking power in the United States, there is renewed hope that Washington and other countries wielding influence in Sudan will dedicate resources toward a negotiated settlement that ends the ongoing violence. – Sudan Crisis Lingers On, Remains Below the Radar of International Attention – The Soufan Center
Syria
(Delaney Simon – Crisis Group)
The unexpected fall of President Bashar al-Assad and with it the end of the Assad dynasty prompted jubilation from many long-suffering Syrian people, but they face sobering challenges as they try to rebuild their society. A central problem remains the enormous web of overlapping sanctions that countries opposed to the regime and its abuses imposed during the civil war. The United States has been the primary architect of many of these sanctions. Over the years, the United States and its allies have shown few signs of readiness to make lasting changes to their sanctions regimes, but on Jan. 6, the United States took a promising step by easing some restrictions. The U.S. Treasury issued General License 24, allowing certain transactions with the Syrian government, including energy sales. The Biden White House also waived a foreign assistance restriction, allowing U.S. aid to flow to a handful of countries if they assist Syria. President Trump has so far left these policies in place, and his secretary of state expressed interest in “exploring” a relationship with Damascus to advance U.S. interests. But the Trump administration must offer bolder reforms if it wants to prevent the new Syria from descending into chaos. – U.S. Sanctions Relief for Syria Is an Important Start, but Not Enough | Crisis Group
(Sinan Hatahet – Atlantic Council)
On December 8, 2024, after years of brutal conflict, the Assad regime finally fell. For over a decade, the Syrian people endured relentless violence, widespread torture, and the worst economic crisis in their modern history. Every sector of the economy was destroyed, incomes shrank dramatically, and savings were wiped out. The state’s ability to provide even basic services like electricity, water, and infrastructure deteriorated to unprecedented levels. Assad’s regime had held on through a combination of coercion and international brinkmanship, extracting what it could from a weary population. – Syria’s post-Assad honeymoon is over. Now the hard work of state-building begins. – Atlantic Council
UN – League of Arab States
(UN News)
The United Nations and the League of Arab States are deepening their collaboration to tackle critical peace and security challenges in the Middle East and beyond, a senior UN political affairs official told the Security Council on Thursday. – UN to strengthen cooperation with League of Arab States | UN News
US
(Clayton Swope – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
During his inaugural address on January 20, 2024, President Donald Trump indicated he will prioritize U.S. space endeavors focused on Mars. While NASA has a long history of Martian exploration, including operating ongoing missions to the Red Planet, the president’s remarks suggest Mars may play a more central role in NASA’s agenda during the coming years. Unless accompanied by a budget increase for NASA, prioritizing Mars missions may impact other NASA activities, such as the Artemis program, NASA’s effort to return humans to the Moon and establish a long-term lunar presence. A Martian pivot may signal recognition of the far greater scientific and strategic value, not to mention the national prestige at stake vis-à-vis China, of Mars than the Moon. Beyond national interests, Mars might ultimately be the linchpin for the long-term survival of humanity, as it’s the most obvious place other than Earth where, with the right technology, humans may be able to survive somewhat independently of our home planet. – Why Should the United States Prioritize Mars?
(John Villasenor – Brookings)
In the final week of the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a new interim final export control rule that aims to “regulate the global diffusion” of advanced artificial intelligence chips and models. The rule, if not reversed or revised by the Trump administration during or shortly after the 120-day comment period that ends on May 15, will significantly undermine U.S. global AI leadership.
While the AI diffusion rule addresses both advanced computing chips and AI model weights, the present post focuses on the restrictions on chip exports and the associated consequences. – The new AI diffusion export control rule will undermine US AI leadership
US – Latin America
(Juan Pablo Toro, Carlos Solar – RUSI)
Inauguration ceremonies in the US don’t give away too much on how incoming presidents will pursue international ties, simply because foreign heads of states don’t usually attend. Donald Trump’s second term, however, is a game-changer. Trump’s guest list included Argentina’s President Javier Milei, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, China’s Vice President Han Zheng, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, among other representatives. While some observers have called for Trump-proofing the world from US abandonment, clearly others are looking to befriend the US centre of power. – To Win Latin America, the US Needs a Sound Hemispheric Security Strategy | Royal United Services Institute
US – Venezuela
(Ryan C. Berg, Jose Ignacio Hernández, and Alexandra Winkler – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
Expectations are sky-high for the Trump administration’s policy toward the Maduro regime in Venezuela. Many Venezuelans, including leading voices in the opposition, grew tired of the Biden administration’s unwillingness to bring serious financial consequences to the Maduro regime following its brazen election theft in July 2024. Specifically, members of opposition leader María Corina Machado and president-elect Edmundo González Urrutia’s teams have called for the suspension of Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licenses permitting the Maduro regime to operate jointly with Western oil companies to pump Venezuelan oil. The Biden administration rebuffed these calls and kept the licenses intact. –Ending Maduro’s Oil Lifeline: Reviewing Oil Licenses Granted Under the Barbados Accord
Davos 2025
(Stephen A. Schwarzman, Klaus Schwab, Ana Botín, Patrick Pouyanné, Donald J. Trump, Brian Moynihan, Børge Brende – WEF)
Special Address and Dialogue with Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(WEF)
A Conversation with Asaad Hassan Al Shibani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Syria – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(WEF)
Conversation with Varsen Aghabekian, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of the Palestinian National Authority – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Kenneth Rogoff, Valérie Urbain, Matthew Blake – WEF)
An integrated global financial system, connecting central and commercial banks, insurers and asset managers and investors across borders, is crucial for economic growth and human development. Combating increasing fragmentation enables effective channelling of savings and investment in small and medium-sized enterprises, the innovation economy and communities. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Serigne Gueye Diop, Laurent Saint-Martin, Tobias Meyer, Tak Niinami, Simon Evenett, Vandita Pant – WEF)
International discourse on trade and investment has turned oppositional and agreement on principles for trade cooperation is strained. How can leaders build a more constructive narrative for global trade and investment? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Hatem Dowidar, Brad Smith, Bill Thomas, Paula Ingabire, Kristalina Georgieva, Vijay Vythianathan Vaitheeswaran – WEF)
As the race for AI leadership intensifies, access to resilient digital infrastructure, advanced computer capabilities and strong public-private investment are essential. A few countries are sprinting ahead, securing their competitive advantage, while others struggle to keep up. What strategies can bridge this growing AI divide and ensure more equitable access to AI benefits globally? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Laurent Freixe, Asma Khan, Steve Sedgwick, Cindy H. McCain, Stefaan Decraene, Arnold Puech Pays d’Alissac – WEF)
In 2024, 1 in 11 people worldwide faced hunger, with continued inflation, conflict and the impact of climate change raising the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition globally. From farm to consumer, how can we rethink the economics of food? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Ahmed Kouchouk, Lara Habib, Mohammed Aljadaan, Nora Suleiman Al-Fassam, Jack Hidary, Ahmed Galal Ismail – WEF)
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa is projected to rebound to 3.8% in 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024, even as the region continues to navigate extreme uncertainty. While conflict, rising indebtedness and supply chain disruptions are limiting the growth outlook, the region’s largest economies are pushing forward with large-scale diversification initiatives. How can the region invest in sustainable growth amid volatility? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Al Gore, Gim Huay Neo, Muhammad Yunus, Katherine Gao Haichun, Pedro Sánchez, Andrew Forrest, Salil S. Parekh – WEF)
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the historic Paris Agreement, however the world is not yet on track to meet its goals. While momentum to decarbonize economies, build nature-positive systems and set up key financing mechanisms is growing, we lack the speed, scale and quality needed to prevent this emergency. What kinds of innovation and partnerships can turn crisis into opportunity and progress for people and planet in this critical decade of action? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Isabella M. Weber, Pichai Chunhavajira – WEF)
Nations across the world, especially developed economies, face a stark demographic challenge as births fall below the replacement level and jeopardize future economic output. At the same time, many of those same nations are at the forefront of adopting cutting-edge technologies. This session explores the impact of technologies on productivity and the extent to which their adoption can counteract the impacts of population decline on GDP. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Till Leopold, Hisayuki Idekoba, Nela Richardson, Anais Rassat – WEF)
Over 20% of jobs are set to change by 2030, with 170 million new roles created and 92 million eliminated, according to the Future of Jobs Report 2025. This media briefing highlights the key drivers of these shifts and explores the implications for businesses, governments and workers in navigating a rapidly transforming global workforce. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Chavalit Frederick Tsao, Ray Dalio, Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, Lutfey Siddiqi, Beatriz Martin Jimenez – WEF)
To achieve net-zero emissions and reverse biodiversity loss by 2050, funding for equitable climate and nature transitions must increase by over $3 trillion annually. This can be unlocked through new finance models and innovative partnerships to accelerate and scale green solutions. How can private capital, from grants and impact investing to family offices and sovereign wealth funds, be harnessed to catalyse systems change for people and planet? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Sian L. Beilock, Michael Spence, Lawrence H. Summers, Raquel Bernal – WEF)
From integrating next-generation technologies into curricula to addressing national perceptions of cultural issues, education is at a pivotal moment in ensuring that it adequately trains and teaches future generations. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
(Roy Jakobs, Karen Tso, Shobana Kamineni, Gianrico Farrugia, M.D., Nikolaj Gilbert – WEF)
From AI integration to data usage, the healthcare sector has capitalized on the post-COVID momentum to rethink its operations across the value chain. However, transformations remain in the early stages and organizations have yet to crack the code on generating value at scale. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum
