From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : ASEAN, Australia, Australia-China, Bahrain, Climate Action, Democratic Republic of the Congo, European Union-Russia-North Korea, Germany, India-Russia, India-Russia-US, Middle East, Russia-CSI, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), South Africa’s G20, South Korea, Syria-Israel, UK-US, US, US-Australia-Canada
ASEAN
(Mirza Sadaqat Huda – FULCRUM) The adage “good fences make good neighbours” is becoming increasingly obsolete in Southeast Asia, thanks to ASEAN’s progress in connectivity across multiple areas, including energy. Despite the second Trump administration’s renewed attack on globalisation, the need of the day is not fences that separate us but rules-based systems that facilitate even greater levels of interconnection. In this context, the successor ASEAN Power Grid Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is an opportunity to address three key priorities — the creation of a regional institution, an ASEAN Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) market and a transparent regional wheeling charge methodology. – New ASEAN Power Grid Agreement Must Reflect New Needs | FULCRUM
Australia
(Daryna Antoniuk – The Record) Australia has prohibited government officials from using cybersecurity software from the Russian firm Kaspersky Lab, citing concerns over foreign interference, espionage and sabotage. Under the new directive, government agencies must not install Kaspersky Lab products or web services on official systems and devices, and they must remove any existing instances by April. – Australia bans government use of Kaspersky software over Russian espionage concerns | The Record from Recorded Future News
Australia – China
(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) Australia can take three lessons from Chinese military behaviour in the past two weeks. China will keep conducting dangerous military maneuvers against us and other countries in the South China Sea; its actions will continue to differ from its words; and it is likely to send advanced Chinese warships to our region more often and for longer. It has been an eventful fortnight in the China-Australia military relationship. – China’s ships near Australia. Challenges in the South China Sea. Get used to it | The Strategist
Bahrain
(Mahdi Ghuloom – Observer Research Foundation) The King of Bahrain pardoned a total of 3,482 prisoners in 2024, in four batches celebrating important Islamic and national occasions throughout 2024. This was a marked increase in the pattern of pardoning in Bahrain, as this piece will seek to demonstrate, which many rightly analysed as being in line with Bahrain’s unique political trajectory. Nonetheless, it is also fair to note that the tradition of pardoning prisoners on national and/or religious occasions has become somewhat of a political norm around the Gulf. In 2024, for example, Saudi Arabia announced such pardons during the holy month of Ramadan, as did the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. Religious occasions, such as the Prophet’s birthday, marked another pardon in 2024 for Oman. Meanwhile, national day celebrations, including in Oman, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, all marked a time for pardons in the same year. – Bahrain’s pardon surge in 2024: Focusing on rehabilitation and justice
Climate Action
(Aparna Roy – Observer Research Foundation) A recent analysis by Carbon Brief, which found that nearly 95% of the countries that signed the Paris Agreement have missed the United Nations (UN) deadline to submit new climate pledges for 2035, is cause for worry. The finding comes at a time when United States (US) President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, eroding the global momentum for climate action. The countries missing the deadline collectively account for 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy, raising serious concerns about the agreement’s ability to drive meaningful climate progress. Meanwhile, the intensifying frequency of climate disasters — from record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic floods to extreme wildfires — underscores the urgent need for decisive leadership. Without immediate and committed action, the Paris Agreement risks becoming an empty promise rather than a binding global commitment. Under these circumstances, the world needs to urgently fill the leadership vacuum in global climate governance and push for collective action to combat the climate crisis. – Why climate leadership is set for a China-India tango
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) The humanitarian crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is worsening as M23 rebel attacks continue to drive tens of thousands from their homes and claim hundreds of lives, UN humanitarians warned on Monday. – Eastern DR Congo: Crisis deepens as crime and insecurity surges | UN News
European Union – Russia – North Korea
(Daryna Antoniuk – The Record) The European Union on Monday adopted a new package of sanctions against Russia, targeting individuals allegedly involved in cyberwarfare and information operations against Ukraine. Among those sanctioned is Lee Chang Ho, a 58-year-old identified as the head of North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), the country’s intelligence agency. – EU sanctions North Korean tied to Lazarus group over involvement in Ukraine war | The Record from Recorded Future News
Germany
(Atlantic Council) The firewall is holding—for now. Germany’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) was the clear winner in Sunday’s national election, putting its leader Friedrich Merz in line to be the next chancellor after a hard fall for Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) posted a historic second place, with 20 percent of the vote, but Merz has ruled out including AfD in government. The election results, which come against the backdrop of a stagnant economy and worries about European security, will reverberate far beyond Germany. As Merz sets out to form a coalition, we turned to our experts to answer five burning questions. – Germany shifts rightward: Our experts answer the big questions about the country’s election – Atlantic Council
India – Russia
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) In the post-COVID era, the global geopolitical landscape has been highly unstable and marked by continuing military conflicts with far-reaching implications globally. Even the countries that are not directly participating in these wars find themselves affected by the ripple effects, including economic instability, refugee crises, heightened tensions between rival states and the possibility of nuclear escalation. These conflicts have also put strains on international relations. Additionally, the re-election of Donald Trump as US president has introduced considerable uncertainty in international relations, prompting countries to brace for potential shifts and changes in policies and alliances. For decades, India and Russia have maintained a deep-rooted and mutually beneficial strategic partnership that has withstood the test of time, adapting to shifting global dynamics and domestic transformations. Despite geopolitical upheavals, both nations have supported each other across critical domains, including defence, energy security, and multilateral cooperation. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a pivotal challenge to this enduring relationship, compelling India to navigate its foreign policy with a delicate balance of pragmatism and strategic autonomy. While New Delhi has consistently upheld its commitment to non-alignment and independent decision-making, the crisis underscores the complexities of its diplomatic engagements, particularly as it seeks to maintain constructive relations with both Russia and the West. – India and Russia: Navigating the Challenges Amidst Global Geopolitical Shifts | Vivekananda International Foundation
India – Russia – US
(Gordon Arthur – Defense News) The cream of the U.S. and Russian air forces shared a runway at the recent Aero India 2025 exhibition in Bengaluru, as both the Lockheed Martin F-35A and Sukhoi Su-57E attempted to woo the Indian Air Force towards an unlikely deal. Emanating from opposing blocs, the surprising juxtaposition of these latest fifth-generation fighters at Aero India, held here Feb. 10-14, illustrates India’s non-aligned stance. Historically, Delhi has relied on Russia for military equipment, though the U.S. has made significant inroads into the market in recent years. – For India, it’s ‘Pick your fighter,’ as Delhi weighs US, Russian bids
Middle East
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) Gulf powers in the Middle East are locked in a sprint towards coming up with a viable plan for Gaza’s reconstruction and upkeep as President Donald Trump takes charge in Washington, and mobilises pressure by threatening a take-over of the strip by the US. Trump’s plan includes a “relocation and resettlement of the population in Gaza to safer, neighbouring nations” such as Egypt and Jordan, and in return subsequently transforming the contentious piece of land into a “riviera of the Middle East”. Trump’s quintessential take—viewing Gaza more as a real-estate problem than a deep-rooted geopolitical crisis, especially at the nucleus of many Middle Eastern fissures— has, if nothing else, forced Arab powers into an urgent huddle. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait recently met in Riyadh to try and reinvigorate an Arab-led blueprint for the Palestinian crisis as Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza continues. How serious Trump is regarding his view of the displacement and reinstatement of a population is up for debate. But the relatively casual tone of narratives flowing in from the White House has certainly ruffled enough feathers to mobilise regional powers, ahead of the emergency Arab Summit in Cairo, Egypt on 4 March 2025, to further discuss Gaza’s reconstruction plan. – Gaza’s reconstruction roadblock: The unresolved role of Hamas
Russia – CSI
(Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) Moscow has proposed establishing a unified air defence system for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to strengthen security and enhance cooperation. In December 2024, during the Heads of Government Council of CIS meeting in Moscow, all members agreed to allocate funds for the joint venture, which the defence ministers of the member countries will oversee. Premiers of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan, along with the deputy premier of Armenia, and the permanent representative of Turkmenistan to the CIS, attended the meeting under Russia’s chairmanship. This renewed effort showcases Moscow’s overarching strategy to sustain its geostrategic influence in the countries and republics of the former Soviet Union, especially amid Western encroachments during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Today, CIS is comprised of nine members, with Turkmenistan as an associate member. Georgia left the organisation in 2008, Ukraine ceased to participate in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, and Moldova left the organisation in 2022 following the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. – Russia pushes CIS towards collective security
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(UN News) The resolution tabled by the United States, which omitted mention of Russian aggression, only passed after a majority of Member States voted to add EU-led amendments which led to the US abstaining on it own motion and voting against the Ukrainian text. However, the text in the original US resolution was passed hours later in the Security Council – the first to do so since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022. Until Monday’s high stakes diplomatic debates, the Security Council – which is responsible for maintaining international peace and security – has been unable to find consensus, owing largely to Russia’s veto power as a permanent member. The two General Assembly draft resolutions put before UN Member States during the morning session both ostensibly called for peace and an end to the conflict – but diverged fundamentally. – Ukraine war: Amid shifting alliances, General Assembly passes resolution condemning Russia’s aggression | UN News
(Olena Guseinova – Lowy The Interpreter) Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world is still grappling with the war’s implications. While the conflict has upended long-held Western assumptions about the post-Cold War order, some have yet to fully grasp the fact that realpolitik is not merely back in fashion – it never truly left the scene. – Did we learn anything from the war in Ukraine? | Lowy Institute
(Olga Khakova, Haley Nelson – Atlantic Council) Three years of Russia’s senseless aggression in Ukraine have caused monumental, unnecessary human suffering but also an irreversible impact on Russia’s energy sector. The war has diminished giants like Gazprom—once a massive revenue crutch for Moscow—into historic economic losers. Now, Vladimir Putin’s narrow path to regaining European gas market share is through liquefied natural gas (LNG)—a modern Trojan Horse of energy influence. Unstopped, he may succeed, as growing LNG exports to European consumers sent €7 billion to Russia in 2024. – US energy dominance is Putin’s worst nightmare as Russia enters its fourth year of war crimes – Atlantic Council
(Sylvie Corbet, Matthew Lee, Aamer Madhan – Defense News) President Donald Trump said he was hopeful that Russia’s war in Ukraine was nearing an endgame as he met on Monday with French President Emmanuel Macron on the third anniversary of the invasion. Trump, in broad-ranging comments on the state of the conflict, said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine to keep the peace. He also expressed hope that the conflict could end within weeks and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would soon come to the U.S. to sign a deal to give the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals to help repay some of the $180 billion in American aid that’s been sent to Kyiv since the start of the war. – Trump expresses Russia-Ukraine war nearing end as he meets with Macron
(Daniel Fried – Just Security) The Trump administration’s fast-track plan to end Russia’s war against Ukraine has potential and had been gaining traction, but the administration risks undermining its own approach amid chaotic inconsistencies. These inconsistencies partly reflect President Donald Trump’s personalized and ad hoc decision-making process and the confusion to which most new U.S. administrations are prone. But the different messages — sometimes pushing against Russia but more recently attacking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and even reflecting Russian talking points — suggest strategic differences within the administration, roughly between “peace through strength” versus “peace through great power appeasement,” i.e., ceding Ukraine to a Russian sphere of domination. – Trump Administration’s Russia-Ukraine Signals: Internal Clash?
(Julia Kepczynska, Ania Zolyniak – Lawfare) President Trump “shocked” allies and analysts alike when he announced a “welcomed” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding meeting in Saudi Arabia to broker a deal to “end” the war in Ukraine. Consciously left off the guest list is, at least as of now (though apparently subject to change), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While Trump’s promise to end the war within 24 hours as president remains unfulfilled, his continued reassurances of and lack of clarity on an impending agreement since the campaign trail has set off the D.C. policy community, resulting in no shortage of prognostications of what such a deal could look like. Official whiplash and waffling notwithstanding, a broad consensus appears to be forming out of this flurry around two potential contours: (a) The alleged “deal” will not be one for formal peace but rather a ceasefire to the hot conflict, and (b) it will likely involve a mix of some kind of security guarantees for Ukraine (though NATO membership now appears out of the question) and Russian—likely de facto—control over the Ukrainian territory its military currently occupies. However, while such an arrangement may quiet the dogs of war, it by no means returns them to the kennel. In other words, the “war” would not necessarily “end,” at least not from the perspective of international law—a perspective critical for understanding the implications of any such negotiations for communities in the contested territories. – All’s Well That Ends Well? Legal Complications of a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | Lawfare
(Konstantin Skorkin – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) The unexpected rapprochement between the United States and Russia amid negotiations to end the war in Ukraine has prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to turn to domestic sanctions once again—this time against a group of Ukrainian oligarchs including former president Petro Poroshenko. This shows that Zelensky is preparing for the political struggle that would follow the imposition of a disadvantageous peace. It’s also clear the Ukrainian government feels it has a freer hand with its opponents because U.S. President Donald Trump is unconcerned about democracy. – Trump’s Disregard for Democracy Gives Ukraine’s Zelensky Free Rein at Home | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(James Nixey – Chatham House) In a world where President Donald Trump is calling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictator, and prefers an economic relationship with Russia to Canada, it’s easy to despair. Trump and his administration seem inclined to double down on their more outrageous utterances, making it hard to see how the very public and personal dispute with Zelenskyy can be repaired. On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the US–Ukraine relationship seems badly undermined to some – especially when Trump clearly believes the threat from China takes precedence. – It’s not too late for the US to back Ukraine – for its own benefit | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
South Africa’s G20
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) In November 2025, South Africa will become the first African country to host the G20 Summit in its business capital, Johannesburg. Expectations are high that South Africa will successfully highlight the African priorities during the Summit. From poverty, food security, high debt, and post-COVID-19 recovery to global challenges like climate change, weak economic growth, and divisive geopolitics, the list runs long. During the summit, South Africa will also have the support of the African Union (AU) in navigating diverse interests and fostering consensus among its 54 member countries. The prevailing discord between several member states like Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over M23 rebels, Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance dam, Ethiopia and Somalia over the sovereignty of Somaliland and Morocco and Algeria over the Western Sahara are a few examples. Meanwhile, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger decided to leave the West African regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and decided to form their own federation—Alliance of Sahel States. As more countries in the region may deflect in the future, the prospects of the strongest regional block of Africa are in tatters. To bring these conflicting parties to an accord would be a herculean task for South Africa. – Navigating Trump’s shadow: South Africa’s G20 challenge
South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) South Korea is increasingly polarized, not just because of the protracted strife between its parties but the pull factor of elements that lie outside of the traditional political arena. The emergence of conservative online media, a vociferous cohort of young men and a movement inspired by “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) in the United States risk further destabilizing the country’s hard-earned democratic equilibrium. Since impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law declaration, young men in their 20s and 30s have emerged as the largest demographic backing him, with many taking to the streets in his support — a shift from the older voters who have traditionally made up the ruling People Power Party’s base. In contrast, anti-Yoon and pro-impeachment protests have been led by young women. While this gendered divide already existed in the country, the current fraught environment has sharpened its edges, with the protests becoming a new site of this phenomenon. – Men, media and MAGA deepen South Korea’s split
Syria – Israel
(Simon Henderson – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Among the many factors jeopardizing Syria’s fragile stability post-Assad, electricity shortages are coming to the fore, with available supplies reduced to only an hour or two a day. Importing power and/or natural gas from Israel could help. Even before the Assad regime’s collapse, Syria’s electricity infrastructure was a mess. A decade of civil war had greatly damaged power plants and lines, and the former oil-exporting nation was reduced to importing oil, mainly from Iran, to survive. Iranian oil is no longer arriving post-Assad, and most of Syria’s productive oil fields are located in northeastern territories controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). On February 22, Oil Ministry officials in Damascus stated that Kurdish supplies had resumed. Yet the long-term future of oil flows from that area is unclear given the close links between Syria’s new rulers and Turkey, a foe of the SDF (not to mention the uncertainty about U.S. policy toward the Kurds, Washington’s chief counterterrorism partners on the ground for more than a decade). – Does Syria’s Electricity Crisis Have an Israeli Solution? | The Washington Institute
UK – US
(Ed Arnold – RUSI) This week the UK prime minister will head to Washington to try to become a bridge between President Donald Trump and Europe. If he is to have any chance of succeeding, he will need to be bold. – How Should Starmer Deal with Trump? | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Daniel Jacobson – Just Security) The Trump administration has employed shifting legal strategies to freeze and terminate grants, contracts, and other forms of financial assistance that are not in line with the administration’s policy priorities. After initial losses in court, its current approach is not to rely on executive orders (or other instruments requiring governmentwide action), but rather to assert that each agency is acting pursuant to its own regulations, terms, and conditions that purportedly permit the agency to freeze or terminate funding. In some cases, those agency-specific authorities do not in fact authorize the agencies to act as the administration claims. But even where regulations, terms, or conditions do purport to authorize agencies to freeze or terminate funding based on changing policy priorities, a separate statute — the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (ICA) — may prohibit agencies from undertaking these freezes and terminations. The ICA forbids agencies from intentionally delaying or rescinding funding outside of the narrow circumstances it delineates, which do not include a president’s changing policy priorities. And no regulation, term, or condition can supersede this statutory prohibition. – Trump Cannot Use Award Terms and Conditions to Impound Funds
(Patrick Tucker – Defense One) The selection of John Daniel Caine as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff may signal a new emphasis on irregular warfare, covert and clandestine operations, enabling swifter action with fewer legal constraints and less congressional scrutiny, say former military and senior defense officials who have worked in the intelligence community, special operations, the Defense Department, and the White House. The nomination of Caine—a retired Air Force lieutenant general—and the early dismissal of Gen. CQ Brown were part of an unprecedented purge announced on Friday by President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who also announced their intent to replace Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations; and the judge advocates general—essentially the top lawyers—of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Hegseth was also reported to have fired his senior military assistant, Lt. Gen. Jennifer Short. – In Pentagon shakeup, some see bid for more secret actions, less oversight – Defense One
(Mark Nevitt – Just Security) On Friday, President Donald Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Charles Q. Brown. This ends a distinguished career for General Brown, the second African-American to serve as the U.S. military’s most senior officer (confirmation vote 83-11), and someone who sailed through the Senate confirmation process when he was previously nominated for Air Force Chief of Staff (98-0 vote). The firings also appear to breathe life into the military career of a retired Air Force lieutenant general, Dan Caine, whom Trump said he will nominate to take Brown’s place. – The Pentagon Personnel Firings Threaten Our Apolitical Military
(Suzanne Goldberg – Lawfare) In dozens of lawsuits challenging Trump administration actions, plaintiffs have asked courts for emergency help. These individuals and organizations—fired federal employees, HIV prevention advocates, immigrants, transgender service members, and more—say they are currently facing “irreparable harm” from the government that must be stopped right away while their lawsuit is in process. But what are these provisional-relief requests, exactly? And how do they work? – Temporary Blocks: What You Need to Know About TROs and Preliminary Injunctions | Lawfare
(Jessica Bulman-Pozen, Emily Chertoff – Lawfare) In many ways, the first month of the second Trump administration has been shocking. The President has quickly and emphatically demonstrated his contempt for the Constitution, for Congress and the courts, and for federal workers and foreign allies alike. But if some of the particulars have come as surprises, the basic outlines of the administration’s plan to decimate the regulatory and service-providing portions of government while consolidating and building executive enforcement capacity were long evident—and long preceded Trump’s presidency. – The Administrative State’s Two Faces | Lawfare
US – Australia – Canada
(George Boone – Lowy The Interpreter) When gauging the implications of Trump 2.0 for Australia, experts regularly look to draw insight from Canada’s recent interactions with the United States. After all, as Sam Roggeveen notes, there is a strong basis for doing so – “Canada is safe, likeable, reasonable, wealthy, friendly, Western, English-speaking. Australia and Canada share a colonial heritage, membership to the Commonwealth, and a long-established alliance with the United States, reinforced by deep historical, economic and cultural ties.” – For Trump, Australia is nothing like Canada | Lowy Institute
