From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia-China, Australia-Indonesia, Australia-South Korea, India, Saudi Arabia, Transatlantic Alliance, US, US-Middle East
Australia – China
(Graeme Dobell – The Strategist) Foreign Minister Penny Wong in 2024 said that ‘we’re in a state of permanent contest in the Pacific—that’s the reality.’. China’s arrogance hurts it in the South Pacific. Mark that as a strong Australian card in this permanent contest. The Chinese navy’s no-notice live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea have become another talking point in Australia’s effort to deny Beijing a Pacific island naval base. – The permanent Australia-China contest in the South Pacific | The Strategist
Australia – Indonesia
(Edna C. Pattisina – The Interpreter) Australia and Indonesia signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) last year, reinforcing the existing Lombok Treaty while signalling a commitment to deeper practical cooperation. However, concerns within Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence initially hindered engagement, stemming from historical grievances, differing strategic views, and perceived Australian support for separatist movements. Some Indonesian defence officials remain wary of deeper cooperation with Australia due to unresolved tensions from past events, particularly the 1999 East Timor crisis. Retired generals in President Prabowo Subianto’s inner circle recall how Australia, through the UN Assistance Mission to East Timor (UNAMET), positioned the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) as the antagonist. This experience fostered doubts about Australia’s reliability as a partner, with fears that common interests might not always align. – Indonesia and Australia: Defence cooperation under Prabowo | Lowy Institute
Australia – South Korea
(Jihoon Yu – The Strategist) South Korea and Australia should enhance their cooperation to secure submarine cables, which carry more than 95 percent of global data traffic. As tensions in the Indo-Pacific intensify, these vital connections face risks from cyber intrusions, sabotage and state-backed interference, particularly amid China’s growing maritime influence. South Korea boasts advanced technical expertise, while Australia has strong maritime capabilities and intelligence connections and is geographically well-placed. The two countries should combine these strengths to secure undersea infrastructure. – Australia should work with South Korea to secure undersea cables | The Strategist
India
(Shatadru Chattopadhayay – Observer Research Foundation) For decades, global agriculture has pursued an extractive model of relentless yield maximisation—at a devastating cost. Soil degradation, water scarcity, and deepening inequities have made it clear that the promise of perpetual growth in a finite world is an illusion. This brief challenges the dominant narrative of industrialised, high-input farming and reimagines Indian agriculture through the lens of ‘degrowth’—an emerging concept that is not about producing less, but about producing differently: prioritising well-being over profit, biodiversity over monocultures, and local self-sufficiency over corporate dependency. The brief explores how regenerative practices, community-driven food systems, and ecological balance can create a sustainable, just, and resilient future for farmers and consumers alike. Drawing on ancient Indian wisdom, modern ecological science, and global case studies, it presents a roadmap for a transition that is not only necessary but inevitable. – Degrowth and the Reimagining of Indian Agriculture
(Hervé Lemahieu – The Interpreter) The winds were at India’s back at the tenth Raisina Dialogue, a geopolitical conference held last week in New Delhi by the Observer Research Foundation and India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The three-day dialogue is India’s “bazaar world order” manifest – a counter to East Asia’s bipolar power politics dominated by the United States and China. Europeans, Russians, Ukrainians, Iranians, and Arabs are all thrown into an unlikely multipolar mix. Just about everyone it seems (apart from maybe China and a few South Asian neighbours) needs more of India. – Could India be the third wheel in a G2 world? | Lowy Institute
Saudi Arabia
(Aaron Jauregui – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been aiming to diversify its economy away from oil and foster cultural vibrancy by investing in various sectors as part of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiative. Esports, a highly popular yet historically less lucrative field, presents a unique opportunity for Saudi Arabia to position itself at the forefront of youth entertainment, with greater potential for success and fewer competitors than in its previous efforts to break into traditional sports industries. – From Oil to Esports: Saudi Arabia’s Game-Changing Investment in Online Arenas – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Transatlantic Alliance
(Carl Bildt – The Strategist) Once upon a time, the United States saw the contest between democracy and authoritarianism as a singularly defining issue. It was this outlook, forged in the crucible of World War II, that created such strong transatlantic bonds. For many decades, the US-European alliance was not only about security, but ideology and shared values. That is why the relationship endured for 80 years. But now, thanks to US President Donald Trump, the world of just two months ago has already come to feel like distant history. The very nature of the West is changing at lightning speed before our eyes. So sudden and disorienting is the disruption that many have been left grasping for an anchor. The new reality became apparent when the US joined Russia and a few other outcast authoritarian countries to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. That was a watershed—a date that will live in infamy. – The transatlantic world will never be the same | The Strategist
US
(Victor Abramowicz – The Interpreter) What explains President Donald Trump’s foreign policy? Why does his administration bully allies with tariffs and threats of abandonment, and demand better trade balances and more defence spending, yet also cosy up to adversaries including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping? Trump’s motivations have been described as mercantilist, isolationist, authoritarian, or even so driven by whim as to be in opposition to US national interests. Yet such views, which contain elements of truth, miss a deeply rational explanation for some of Trump’s behaviour: an adverse reassessment of the costs and benefits of US grand strategy over the past century, exemplified by liberal global hegemony and offshore balancing. To the degree this reappraisal prevails in Washington, it has profound consequences for America’s allies, not least Australia. – There is method in the Trump madness | Lowy Institute
(Bill Sweetman – The Strategist) When the F-47 enters service, at a date to be disclosed, it will be a new factor in US air warfare. A decision to proceed with development, deferred since July, was unexpectedly announced on 21 March. Boeing will be the prime contractor. The design will have much more range than earlier fighters, both at supersonic and subsonic speed. But it is not even a fighter as it is generally understood. It will be more stealthy. It will be larger, trading dogfight manoeuvrability for reach, and it will be designed to work within a family of systems, many of them unmanned. – Bolt from the blue: what we know (and don’t know) about the US’s powerful F-47 fighter | The Strategist
US – Middle East
(Alan Pino – Atlantic Council) Do US President Donald Trump and his advisers have a comprehensive strategy for the Middle East, or are they engaged in ad hoc efforts to put out the fires that continue to burn in the region? This is an important question brought to the fore by the White House’s recent decision to conduct air strikes against the Houthis, an Iranian-allied militia in Yemen, for their role in attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel. But the answer to this question will have ramifications far beyond Yemen. Some commentators have already rendered their verdict on the question by calling Trump’s foreign policy toward the Middle East improvisational and chaotic. But if one understands the centerpiece of Trump’s policy to be securing a nuclear deal with Iran and curbing its malign influence in the region, then the actions the administration is taking toward Iran, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon can be viewed as supporting this central objective. By contrast, the administration’s support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to resume the war in Gaza appears ill-advised because it risks undercutting the regional support Trump will need in confronting Iran. – Trump’s Middle East strategy is all about striking an Iran deal. Gaza could get in the way. – Atlantic Council
