Geostrategic magazine (23 January 2025 pm)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Today’s about : Abkhazia-Russia, Australia, Azerbaijan-Türkiye, Belarus, China, Europe, India, Iraq, Quad, Southeast Asia, US, US-Australia, US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Climate Action, Water, Davos 2025 (all the sessions) 

Abkhazia – Russia

(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation)
Abkhazia is experiencing an energy shortage due to low water levels in the Enguri hydroelectric dam. Illegal cryptocurrency mining further exacerbates the shortage, which has increased Abkhazia’s reliance on Russian electricity.
In September, Abkhazia blocked a law allowing Russian citizens to buy real estate in the region. This decision angered Moscow, which subsequently pulled its energy assistance to the region, exacerbating the energy crisis.
Moscow appears less focused on broader geopolitical implications involving Georgia or Western actors regarding Abkhazia, instead prioritizing the region’s compliance with laws and agreements that bolster its control. – Occupied Abkhazia Faces Electricity Crisis – Jamestown

Australia

(Elizabeth Buchanan – ASPI The Strategist)
The litany of executive orders that have dropped on the White House website tell us plenty about what Australia can expect from a second Trump term’s foreign policies. And there are plenty of implications of the America First agenda for Canberra. Let’s begin with Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential. Trump’s intent to unlock Alaska’s ‘bounty of natural wealth’ by opening offshore drilling and greenlighting dormant liquified natural gas (LNG) export projects is a boon for the US economy and energy security. – Australia enters the America First era: an analysis of the executive orders | The Strategist

(Andrew Horton, Adam Leslie – ASPI The Strategist)
Australia must be clear-eyed and pragmatic about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, looking past the rhetoric to focus on advancing our strategic interests in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific region. His ‘America First’ declarations may unsettle traditional diplomatic sensibilities, but they mask a crucial reality: the United States isn’t withdrawing from global leadership; it’s redefining how that leadership works. While it is a rejection of the idea the US can, and should, continue to underwrite security and stability to the world alone, critics are wrong to call it isolationist. – Australia must be clear-eyed and pragmatic about Donald Trump | The Strategist

(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist)
Australia often relies on overseas facilities for uncrewed systems’ maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), exposing the country to operational delays, escalating costs and potential security risks. To address this vulnerability, it should establish an MRO facility for uncrewed systems in Darwin. Uncrewed systems, including drones, uncrewed aerial vehicles and uncrewed underwater vehicles, are transforming Australia’s defence, security and commercial sectors. They have a range of applications in defence operations, border security, environmental monitoring and industrial applications such as extraction of natural resources, including natural gas. – Darwin is well-placed for an uncrewed systems hub | The Strategist

Azerbaijan – Türkiye

(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation)
On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest in Türkiye’s energy sector, strengthening bilateral ties and allowing Baku to expand its influence in Europe and the Middle East.
SOCAR is critical in meeting Türkiye’s growing natural gas demand while advancing eco-friendly initiatives such as sustainable aviation fuel production, aligning with Azerbaijan’s green energy strategies.
Azerbaijan’s soft power is fueled by SOCAR through investments and diplomatic engagement, including potential energy supplies to Syria. This reflects Baku’s multivector foreign policy amid shifting Middle East geopolitics. – Azerbaijan’s SOCAR Invests in Türkiye’s Energy Sector – Jamestown

Belarus

(Dmitry Bolkunets – The Jamestown Foundation)
Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.
Growing economic and political integration is deepening Minsk’s reliance on Moscow. The Kremlin’s support safeguards Lukashenka’s regime but limits his ability to engage with the West or assert greater independence.
Opposition factions remain divided over how to combat the election, while Russia may exploit tensions to disrupt Belarus’s stability. Despite public resistance, crackdowns and propaganda solidify Lukashenka’s grip on power. – Belarus Faces Another Sham Election as Lukashenka Clings to Power – Jamestown

China

(Shijie Wang – The Jamestown Foundation)
A new “flash ironmaking” technology invented in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) reduces reliance on imported high-grade iron ore, aligning with Xi Jinping’s push for industrial chain autonomy and supply chain resilience.
The technology may mitigate geopolitical risks but is unlikely to disrupt Australia’s iron ore market in the near term.
The PRC could export this technology through the One Belt One Road initiative, fostering industrialization in developing countries and solidifying its global leadership in metallurgy. –‘Flash Ironmaking’ and Beijing’s Lead in Industrial Technologies – Jamestown

(Brian Hart, Hugh Grant-Chapman, Leon Li – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
China’s manufacturing boom has fueled decades of export-oriented economic growth, undercutting foreign competitors and contributing to a growing appetite for tariffs in the United States and Europe. – China Dominates Global Manufacturing

Europe

(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist)
This year was always going to be important for the European Union, given the start of a new EU Commission mandate, a relatively new European Parliament and a change at the helm of the European Council. But recent developments—including the collapse of the German government, the beginning of coalition negotiations led by the far right in Austria, the end of Russian gas flows to the EU via Ukraine and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election—have raised the stakes significantly. – The EU’s year of fundamental choices | The Strategist

India

(Sunaina Kumar – Lowy The Interpreter)
Growing up in India, it was most common to hear the word “population” juxtaposed with “explosion”, like a frightful bomb that would go off in our faces. The first known use of the term “population explosion” is from 1903, according to the Merriam Webster Dictionary. The threat of the population bomb is gone for good, reflecting major shifts in demography over the last century. In April 2023 when India reached 1,425,775,850 people, it surpassed China’s population to become the most populous country in the world. India’s population is expected to grow for several decades and could peak at 1.7 billion by the 2060s, while China’s population is already in decline, according to UN estimates. – The population paradox in India | Lowy Institute

Iraq

(Marsin Alshamary, Hamzeh Hadad – Brookings)
The collapse of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria has significant political and security implications for Iraq. Of immediate concern is the security vacuum in Syria, which may create spillover effects across the border reminiscent of 2014, when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) established control over territory in both countries. In the longer term, the events in Syria are both a cause and consequence of diminished Iranian power in the region, especially after the military defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iraqi policymakers, accustomed to being caught between the countervailing American and Iranian pressures, will have to recalibrate their relationship with a weakened Iran. Moreover, they will have to do this in dialogue with a new American administration, under President Donald Trump, who is likely to renew his maximum-pressure campaign against Iran. – Iraq’s search for security and sovereignty after Assad’s collapse

Quad

(Euan Graham – ASPI The Strategist)
Today’s joint statement from the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington is short and sweet, particularly for those who have been arguing that the grouping should overtly embrace security cooperation. The statement’s emphasis on ‘security in all domains’ is a noteworthy and welcome shift from the previous, awkward position that the Quad was not a security partnership, despite working together in health security, cybersecurity and maritime security. – The Quad foreign ministers joint statement: short and sweet | The Strategist

Southeast Asia

(Jayant Menon – East Asia Forum)
Trump’s proposed 60 per cent tariff on goods from China could push production out of China to Southeast Asia, leading to the fragmentation of supply chains and causing significant inefficiencies. As geopolitical tensions escalate, the threat of retaliatory measures from China looms large, further intensifying the risk of a costly and disruptive trade war. Southeast Asia, a key player in this reconfiguration, faces a challenging path ahead as it navigates these changing global trade dynamics. – Southeast Asia at the crossroads of Trump tariffs 2.0 | East Asia Forum

US

(Alexander Palmer, Skyeler Jackson, and Daniel Byman – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
Despite the recent attack in New Orleans, longer-term trends suggest that jihadist terrorism in the United States is not resurgent. The number of jihadist plots and attacks in the United States has been low since the territorial defeat of ISIS. The average lethality of jihadist terrorist attacks has also fallen since the peak of the caliphate. International groups such as the Islamic State and al Qaeda have filled more of an inspirational role rather than directly orchestrating attacks on the United States. Although formal links between attackers and plotters in the United States appear to be rare, this has not prevented individuals from carrying out lethal “lone wolf” attacks. Overall, jihadist terrorism in the United States does not merit additional resources at this time; however, international terrorism organizations continue to merit counterterrorism efforts. – Jihadist Terrorism in the United States

(William G.Gale – Brookings)
As the incoming administration makes its policy priorities clear, Donald Trump has appointed Elon Musk to lead the “Department of Government Efficiency” or DOGE. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed coauthored by Musk, the stated goal for DOGE is “to cut the federal government down to size,” focusing on regulations, spending cuts, and administrative issues. If that’s the case, though, it could end up missing some of the largest government programs—because they’re hidden in the tax code and run by the Internal Revenue Service. – A bigger, easier target for DOGE: Tax expenditures

US – Australia

(John Blaxland – East Asia Forum)
Australia must balance its economic dependence on China with its strategic partnership with the United States as great power competition intensifies and global dynamics shift. A second Trump presidency could increase US protectionism and merge economic and national security goals, placing pressure on allies like Australia. While initiatives such as AUKUS and critical minerals collaboration are key to reducing reliance on China, Australia faces the challenge of managing US political shifts while safeguarding its economic and security interests. – Reconciling economic and national security in US–Australia relations | East Asia Forum

US – Mexico – Canada Agreement

(Shannon K. O’Neil, Julia Huesa – Council on Foreign Relations)
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which underpins North America’s economic integration, requires a joint review by July 2026 and agreement by all three parties to continue. This review now looks poised to become more of a full-fledged renegotiation as President Donald Trump seeks to leverage the discussions to reshape North American trade, migration, and security, as well as address China’s growing influence in regional supply chains. – Trump and the Future of the USMCA | Council on Foreign Relations

Climate Action 

(Bradley Kratzer, Carter Brandon – World Resources Institute)
While the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted livelihoods and triggered a global economic crisis, the unprecedented scale of recovery funding approved by governments also presented an opportunity to rethink business as usual. International institutions from the UN to the World Bank encouraged governments — particularly in poorer countries that are especially vulnerable to climate impacts — to leverage their recovery packages to “build back better” by investing in climate-resilient societies and economies. – Countries Missed a Chance to Invest in Adaptation Post-COVID | World Resources Institute

Water

(Francesca Battistelli – World Resources Institute)
Expanding water coverage to un- or under-served communities while ensuring that existing sources are safe, functioning and continuous is a fundamental development objective of our time. But less reliable and manageable water supplies — driven by deteriorating environmental and climatic conditions — threaten our ability to do so. Water security increasingly depends on considering water within its wider hydrological and governance context, from source protection upstream to system management downstream. Water stress and insecurity are rising globally. Many countries are now forced to grapple with water challenges on multiple fronts, including mounting water scarcity, more frequent droughts, worsening floods, and record-breaking temperatures. Universal access to water and sanitation services also remains beyond reach, especially in low-income countries where poverty and vulnerability are most acute. – Safe Water Supplies Begin with Healthy Watersheds | World Resources Institute

Davos 2025

(WEF)
Special Address by Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(WEF)
A conversation with Javad Zarif, Vice-President for Strategic Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Stephanie Flanders, Gita Gopinath, Kimberly Clausing, Ali Ahmed Al Kuwari, David Schwimmer, Mthuli Ncube – WEF)
Fiscal policy faces the challenge of upholding the provision of public services, maintaining healthy levels of investment to boost growth and keeping debt levels in check. How can policy-makers design and implement fiscal strategies to revive growth and raise tax revenues while continuing to manage this triple challenge? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Jens Stoltenberg, Andriy Yermak, Sasha Vakulina – WEF)
With Ukraine entering the fourth year since the invasion, attention is turning to whether an end to hostilities could come in 2025. Ukraine’s Victory Plan was presented by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2024 as the key framework to achieve a just and lasting peace. How should Ukraine and its international partners proceed in the year ahead? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Celeste Saulo, Johan Rockström, Jane Nelson – WEF)
Extreme weather events are intensifying in severity and frequency and have become common phenomena globally. What can business do to manage and mitigate the risks and impacts? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Hans Kobler, Bob Mumgaard, Arunabha Ghosh, Xin Baoan, Kimberly Budil, Sophie Hermans – WEF)
Technology readiness, demand, finance and public support are among the various challenges hindering the increased deployment of advanced clean energy technologies such as small modular reactors, geothermal and long-duration storage. What needs to change to accelerate the deployment of these technologies? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Takayuki Morita, Ronaldo Lemos, Manuela Kasper-Claridge, Jessika Roswall – WEF)
Biotech, AI and other advanced technologies are opening new possibilities in material science and resource circularity. What are the most promising technologies and how can they address pollution in the air, land, or marine ecosystems? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Victor Bisono Haza, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, Alberto van Klaveren, Demian Reidel, Fernando Honorato Barbosa, Linda Kirkpatrick – WEF)
Latin America has made progress in its economic recovery and a 2.5% growth is expected in 2025 amid more favourable economic conditions. However, the region continues to face structural challenges to drive social and economic prosperity. How can the region improve its use of natural resources and human capital, leverage its geographic position and use technology to enhance productivity and social development? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Jennifer Schenker, Yutaka Sasaki, Alexandr Wang, Clara Chappaz, Øyvind Eriksen – WEF)
New advancements in drugs discovery, self-driving vehicles and finance require data sharing to develop solutions. How can we scale data-sharing practices, maximizing the benefits for everyone? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Johan H. Andresen, Tarek Fares Kai, Yusuf Tuggar, Ngaire Woods – WEF)
In 2024, poor governance – marked by weak accountability, lack of transparency and ineffective rule of law – fuelled conflicts, eroded global cooperation and stalled progress on critical social, economic and environmental issues. What strategies can leaders adopt to champion transparency and rebuild good governance and trust? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Jozef Sikela, Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, Gim Huay Neo, John F. Kerry – WEF)
The Congo basin is the world’s largest tropical forest carbon sink, sequestering 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually, and is home to 139 million people. With nearly two thirds of the forest located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, how can bold policy and foresighted collaboration support conservation, sustainable economic development and peace-building? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Julie Bishop, Merit Janow, Muhammad Yunus, Børge Brende, Pham Minh Chinh, Anwar Ibrahim – WEF)
Building on its strong economic growth of 4.7% in 2024, ASEAN is seeking to boost labour productivity to maintain its competitiveness amid intensifying geo-economic competition. How can the region leverage its diversity and deepen collaboration with partners to strengthen the third largest population bloc in the world? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Deborah Flint, Sun Chanthol, Arjun Dhawan, H.M. King Letsie III of Lesotho, Aja Whitaker Moore – WEF)
Innovation at the economic frontier is crucial to economic dynamism, but so is the provision and maintenance of basic infrastructure. With a global infrastructure gap of $15 trillion projected by 2040, what kind of physical, digital and institutional investment should be prioritized to unlock growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Dorin Recean, Sasha Havlicek, Almar Latour, John Harris, Benjamin Haddad – WEF)
In 2024, 50% of the global population went to the polls while disinformation remained a potent and pervasive challenge. False narratives and misleading information evolved and impacted the political landscape. What lessons can be learned about countering the spread of disinformation in the aftermath of major elections? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Fajer Mushtaq, Christophe Beck, Sherry Madera, Fabrizio Palermo, Jessika Roswall – WEF)
Water systems are reaching a tipping point, with increasing floods and droughts affecting multiple regions globally. In five years, it is estimated that half the world will face water stress, jeopardizing productivity, public health and food security, and threatening $1.6 trillion in assets. How can we leverage technology, governance and finance innovations to avoid or manage water tipping points? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Winnie Byanyima, Michel Demaré, Victoria Lee, Christophe Weber, Pakishe Aaron Motsoaledi, Helen E. Clark, Shyam Bishen – WEF)
Significant gaps in healthy lifespans persist between and within regions, with up to 80% of health outcomes determined by factors outside the healthcare system. How can we tackle these gaps by addressing both non-medical factors, such as socioeconomic status and education, while improving care outcomes and equity in traditional medical settings? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Dani Rodrik, Oliver Bäte, Dick Schoof, Rebeca Grynspan, Andrew Serwer – WEF)
Amid shifting geoeconomic contours, countries are increasingly pursuing protectionist policies, which are influencing trade flows and reshaping patterns of international economic activity. How will the rise of economic nationalism shape the global economy? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Anthony F. Fernandes, Michael T. Fries, Masood Ahmed, Majid Al-Kasabi, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, Jumoke Oduwole – WEF)
Services businesses often receive less attention in policy discussions compared to their manufacturing counterparts due to the intangible nature of their products. Yet they are the backbone of the global economy, driving trade and investment and contributing to two-thirds of global GDP. What lessons learned can champions in this sector share with countries and firms seeking service-driven growth? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Andrew Ng, Yoshua Bengio, Nicholas Thompson, Yejin Choi, Jonathan Ross, Thomas Wolf – WEF)
Artificial general intelligence could possess the versatility to reason, learn and innovate in any task. But with rising concerns about job losses, surveillance and deepfakes, will AGI be a force for progress or a threat to the very fabric of humanity? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Bejul Somaia, Mark Benedetti, Anne Walsh, Jo Taylor, Sam Chandan – WEF)
This year saw the global supply of public equities shrink at the fastest rate in at least 25 years, which was mirrored by continued growth in private markets. As private markets enter a new investment cycle defined by falling interest rates and increased investor demand, what does the future hold for financial markets, both public and private, and the real economy? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Stefanie Ólives, Ipeleng Selele, John Defterios, Joyeeta Gupta, Johanna Hoffman, Gill Scheltjens – WEF)
Nearly 1 billion people live without electricity, while others suffer from its production. Energy access is a crucial enabler for economic growth, social development and environmental sustainability. How can the energy transition be leveraged to overcome these obstacles and ensure equitable energy access for all? – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

(Maxim Timchenko, Henrik Andersen – WEF)
Nearly three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has faced significant attacks from Russia. To provide secure, sustainable and affordable energy, Ukraine is making the largest wartime investment in renewable energy. Join top government leaders and CEOs as they announce a significant investment and public-private collaboration to expand wind generation capacity in Ukraine and learn how these efforts will bring value to people, economy and energy security in Ukraine and Europe. – Programme > World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | World Economic Forum

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