From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Australia
(John Coyne, Henry Campbell – ASPI The Strategist) Critical minerals are a focal point of international contention in an increasingly fracturing international system. These minerals underlie competition across civil and defence sectors and promise economic opportunity throughout their supply chain. Furthermore, they are vital to the clean energy transition, with minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and even wind turbines. Yet, their supply chains face extensive challenges. – Guidance for critical minerals policy from ASPI’s Darwin Dialogue 2024 | The Strategist
Australia – India – Philippines
(Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) The ‘emerging axis’ of autocratic powers epitomised by China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine is, as Australia’s top intelligence chief Andrew Shearer recently said, one of the most troubling strategic developments today. And just as those axis nations—which also include North Korea and Iran—have as many strategic differences as commonalities, countries such as Australia that are worried by, and looking to counter, this malign axis should understand that they’ll need to accept and work with a range of approaches from partners. This reality was underscored by remarks made at ASPI-hosted events in recent weeks by India and the Philippines—two key regional players who are dealing with China’s assertiveness in their own ways but whom are both important partners to Australia. – India and Philippines speak different strategic languages. Australia must be multilingual | The Strategist
China – Pacific
(Riley Duke, Alexandre Dayant – Lowy The Interpreter) After a pandemic-induced lull in spending and new project commitments, China’s Pacific aid engagement has rebounded. With increased spending and a surge in new infrastructure commitments evident in the latest edition of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Aid Map, released today, Beijing’s program is reemerging with a more refined, Pacific-adapted strategy. China builds relationships in the Pacific through various channels, with aid and development assistance playing a key role. The Pacific Aid Map has for seven years now tracked China’s efforts, alongside that of other donors. However, despite widespread perceptions of China’s growing clout in the region, its aid spending had fallen away. – China’s Pacific aid is rebounding and recalibrated | Lowy Institute
Climate Action
(World Resources Institute) At the COP29 climate summit, a group of developed and developing nations – including Canada, Chile, the European Union, Georgia, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland — committed to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that are consistent with IPCC trajectories in line with efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 C, include economy-wide emission reduction targets that cover all greenhouse gases and sustain steep emission cuts that fully align with their own goals to reach net-zero emissions. – STATEMENT: Country Coalition Commits to Steep Emission Cuts to Align with Net Zero Goals | World Resources Institute
(World Resources Institute) At the 2024 UN Climate Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Subnational Climate Action Leaders’ Exchange (SCALE) partnership launched the Zero Emissions and Resilient Buildings (ZERB) Accelerator. The ZERB Accelerator will rapidly reduce operational and embodied greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen climate resilience in the buildings sector through enhanced multilevel collaboration with subnational governments around the world. The announcement was made at SCALE’s COP29 Action Dialogue, where subnational leaders explored opportunities for strengthening climate action across key sectors. – WRI, Partners Launch Zero Emissions Building Accelerator | World Resources Institute
(Melanie Robinson – World Resources Institute) The big-ticket item at this year’s UN climate summit (COP29) is setting a new finance goal that replaces the collective $100 billion per year developed countries provide and mobilize for climate action in developing nations. But with only a few days left of the conference, it’s still very unclear what the goal will be or how it will compare to the previous target. – New Climate Finance Goal: 3 Elements Under Negotiation at COP29 | World Resources Institute
(David M. Hart – Council on Foreign Relations) World governments should focus on rapidly driving down the costs of clean energy, particularly in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors, to move the needle on climate change. – Climate Diplomacy: Watch What Countries Do, Not What They Say | Council on Foreign Relations
European Union
(Eglantine Staunton – Lowy The Interpreter) Within minutes of the announcement of Donald Trump’s second presidential victory, debates on European defence – which are as old as the European project itself – reemerged as European leaders and commentators multiplied calls for a stronger and more independent Europe. Trump’s critiques of NATO both during his first term and during the 2024 presidential campaign, along with his takes on key issues such as Ukraine, left Europe no choice but to come to terms with the fact that the American involvement in support of the continent could no longer simply be taken for granted. – Has the time finally come for a European defence? | Lowy Institute
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that a new president will be elected in early January. This will be the first time the Georgian president is elected by an electoral college, half of which is made up of parliament. This change is significant as the departure of President Salome Zourabichvili, a key counter to Georgian Dream, may leave the opposition without an ally, bolstering the ruling party’s leverage in the ongoing political crisis. The opposition’s refusal to recognize the results of the parliamentary election has sparked a legitimacy crisis. Georgian Dream seeks to consolidate power despite lacking a constitutional majority, relying on opposition participation to legitimize their control over the parliament. – Georgian Dream Hopes to Elect New President With a One-Party Parliament – Jamestown
Iran – Armenia
(Vali Kaleji – The Jamestown Foundation) The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through electricity shortages and sanctions, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom hinders Iran’s efforts to expand exports and reduce Armenia’s reliance on Russian energy. Armenia’s ability to reduce its dependency on Russian energy is tied to regional political developments, including peace agreements with Azerbaijan and normalized relations with Türkiye. – Expanding Iran-Armenia Energy Ties Combat Yerevan’s Reliance on Russian Oil – Jamestown
Iraq
(Filip Sommer, Rebwar Rauf Salih – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Uncertainty and poor governance have fostered an environment of competition for power and leverage within Iraq, both between the Kurdish regional Government (KRG) and Government of Iraq (GoI) and between Turkey and Iran. These dynamics are generating new points of friction and hostility, particularly at the municipal level. Last December’s long-delayed Provincial Council elections in Iraq have opened a new chapter of political contestation between local actors and regional rival countries. Internal fragility within the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)—particularly between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—has spilled over into Iraq’s Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs), claimed by both the KRG and the GoI. Subsequent disputes within the elected municipal councils to agree on governor positions in Iraq’s DIBs have further highlighted these tensions. – What Nineveh’s Municipal Council Reveals about the Iran-Turkey Power Struggle in Iraq | The Washington Institute
Japan
(IISS) Robert Ward hosts Bill Emmott, Chairman of the IISS Trustees, Murano Masashi, a senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair, and Dr Baldauff Nanae, Non-Resident Senior Associate Fellow at the NATO Defense College. Robert, Bill, Masashi and Nanae discuss: the strategic definition of deterrence, from what it entails to how it works; nuclear deterrence, including Japan’s strategy amid the nuclear arms race in East Asia; integrated deterrence, including Japan’s efforts to deepen and integrate operations with allies and partners – Japan and deterrence with Bill Emmott, Murano Masashi, and Dr Baldauff Nanae
Latin America and the Carribean
(Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Azucena Duarte – CSIS) Although only 8 percent of the world lives in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the region accounts for a third of all homicides worldwide. LAC cities consistently top international rankings as some of the most violent locales outside of active conflict zones. Behind this insecurity are powerful and deeply entrenched transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) trafficking drugs and other illegal commodities, who in turn rely on a seemingly endless flow of illicit firearms to carry out their campaigns of violence and intimidation on the Western Hemisphere’s inhabitants. Arms trafficking goes well beyond a law enforcement challenge; the proliferation of semi- and fully automatic rifles, grenade launchers, and various high-caliber weapons are increasingly used by TCOs to hold at risk the very sovereignty of LAC governments. Stories from Mexico, Haiti, Ecuador, and beyond all underscore how the scourge of illicit weapons, and the groups who wield them, can plunge communities, and even whole countries, into violence. Leveraging new data sources, this report examines the prevalence and patterns of arms trafficking within and between each of the four subregions. Recognizing the nature of the threat arms trafficking presents to the Western Hemisphere at large, the report seeks to define the contours of a new strategy to combat illegal guns, concluding with recommendations for the United States, Mexico, Central America, South America, and the Caribbean to pursue. – Under the Gun: Firearms Trafficking in Latin America and the Caribbean
Mauritius
(Samir Bhattacharya – Lowy The Interpreter) Last month, as Prime Minister of Mauritius Pravind Jugnauth celebrated his victory in the long-running Chagos Islands dispute, he could hardly have imagined he would be forced to leave office just weeks later. After years of legal battles, Mauritius finally regained sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, ending a contentious standoff with the United Kingdom. Yet, in a deadly blow to his hopes of a smooth reelection, the opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam won in Mauritius’s parliamentary run-off. And, when judging the scale of the victory, 60 out of 62 seats, with 62.6% of total votes, it is evident that there was widespread discontent against the PM and his ruling coalition, “L’Alliance Lepep”. – Political change in Mauritius carries regional importance – especially for India | Lowy Institute
Middle East
(Oded Adomi Leshem – Middle East Institute) Even now, in the midst of the current dreadful escalation in Israel-Palestine, there is an opportunity to change the trajectory of events and put the region on a path toward peace. To realize this opportunity, advocates of Palestinian-Israeli peace must make a strategic investment in engaging with the mass media in the region. Supporters of peace, both local civil society actors and international partners, need to make a sustained effort to promote conflict resolution by shifting the public discourse of traditional and new media outlets, especially in Israel. It will not be easy, but with the right approach and backing, concentrated efforts to impact the public discourse could yield results that contribute significantly to the likelihood of peace. – Reshaping the public discourse is key to restoring support for Israeli-Palestinian peace | Middle East Institute
(CSIS) In October, Israeli parliament passed two measures that will effectively end the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) as we know it once instituted in January. What are potential scenarios for UNRWA going forward? What are the implications if UNRWA ceases to function? Are there options to fill the void? – The End of UNRWA? Then What?—Gaza: The Human Toll | CSIS Events
Myanmar – China – USA
(Steve Ross, Yun Sun – Stimson Center) In the past three years, China has significantly strengthened its position in Myanmar and is now approaching a level of influence unparalleled in more than a decade. China can be fully expected to use its influence in Myanmar to advance its geostrategic interests in South and Southeast Asia – a significant challenge to U.S. efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. To address the threat, the U.S. must take a more proactive approach to Myanmar and leverage opportunities with Myanmar’s neighbors to advance U.S. interests. – To Counter China, U.S. Must Do More in Myanmar • Stimson Center
NATO
(Cynthia Mehboob – Lowy The Interpreter) Earlier this week, a disturbing escalation in the suspected sabotage of undersea cables unfolded in the Baltic Sea. Two fibre-optic cables – one linking Lithuania and Sweden, and the other connecting Finland and Germany (C-Lion1) – were severed. According to authorities, there was no technical failure; the cables were intentionally cut, sending shockwaves through telecommunications networks and state security apparatus alike. Germany’s defence minister immediately labelled the attack a clear “act of sabotage” aimed directly at European nations that are staunchly supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia. Analysts note that Sweden and Finland have been facing significant infrastructure challenges since joining NATO, with Finland’s nuclear reactors going offline the same day as the cables were cut, underscoring the vulnerability of critical systems. – NATO’s best-laid subsea cable security plans | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Over the past several months, Russian propaganda and reputable analytical platforms close to the Kremlin have increasingly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation. Putin and his entourage’s distorted image of the world and how Russia can defeat the West is divorced from reality, causing them to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. – Russian Propaganda Fuels Nuclear Blackmail Rhetoric – Jamestown
Sweden – Indo Pacific
(IISS) During this IISS Raffles Lecture, Foreign Minister of Sweden Maria Malmer Stenergard discussed Sweden’s shifting policy approach towards the Indo-Pacific against a backdrop of global turbulence, and the opportunities ahead for cross-regional collaboration including through Sweden’s recently released national defence policy direction for cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific. – Strengthening cross-regional security: Sweden and the Indo-Pacific
Türkiye
(Wladimir van Wilgenburg – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On November 11, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), backed an October proposal by hardliner Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to address the Turkish government’s longstanding tensions with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) —a left-wing militant group founded in the 1980s that emerged in response to Turkey’s ban on Kurdish identity and language. – Winds of Change: Ankara’s Subtle Shifts Towards Reconciliation with Kurdish Elements in Turkey | The Washington Institute
USA
(Kelly A. Grieco – Stimson Center) Time is running out. The United States is overextended, involved in two wars — in Ukraine and the Middle East — even as it confronts its greatest strategic challenge — China — in a third distant theater in the Indo-Pacific. American military power is great but not unlimited. The next administration’s National Defense Strategy should prioritize the challenge posed by China, shifting away from Europe and the Middle East to focus more on deterrence and defense in the Indo-Pacific. Doing so requires relearning the strategic purpose of alliances and strategic partnerships to recognize that these relationships are not ends in themselves but, rather, means to achieve U.S. national security objectives. – Bring the National Defense Strategy into Balance • Stimson Center
(Rachel Stohl, Elias Yousif – Stimson Center) President Trump is inheriting the largest arms transfer enterprise in the world. Amounting to billions of dollars in arms sales and military aid packages each year, these programs represent powerful instruments of U.S. foreign policy. Wielded prudently, they can make important contributions to international security, deterrence, and stability. But when exercised irresponsibly, U.S. arms transfers can fuel conflict, enable abuses of predatory governments, and undermine U.S. national interests. Accordingly, as a matter of national and international security, U.S. security cooperation and assistance demands consistent, evidence-based, and accountable stewardship centered on U.S. foreign policy priorities and interests. – Fix the Arms Transfer Enterprise • Stimson Center
(Evan Cooper – Stimson Center) Of all the elements of U.S. power, the diplomatic tool can offer the best return on investment. Past dependency on the military tool and economic coercion has not left the United States better off. In its return to the White House, the Trump administration has an opportunity to rebuild a culture of diplomacy. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the challenges posed by Iran, North Korea, and China all offer opportunities for the United States to constructively engage with a goal of stability, leaving it to rely on the military for its original and intended purpose – as a last resort. The administration should use diplomacy first, working with Congress to develop an efficient and effective diplomatic corps. – Elevate Diplomacy in the Foreign Policy Toolkit • Stimson Center
(John B. Bellinger III – Council on Foreign Relations) President-Elect Donald Trump is likely to take numerous actions domestically and internationally that will raise legal controversies just as he did in his first term. Some will be entirely new initiatives, while others will return to policies adopted during his first term but reversed by President Biden. Many will face legal challenges in U.S. courts and potentially even international tribunals. – Trump Has Promised Swift, Bold Actions as President. Will They Be Legal? | Council on Foreign Relations
USA – Iran
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The online rumor had mobile phones lighting up across an international gathering of government officials and experts over the weekend at this desert resort in the United Arab Emirates. Could it be true, as some reports on social media indicated, that the Islamic Republic of Iran would soon announce that its eighty-five-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was in a coma? If so, it would have far-reaching consequences, as Khamenei has been the most prominent purveyor of his country’s most odious policies: “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and the development of a nuclear program to advance both goals (not to mention its ban on uncovered women). The instability that typically accompanies authoritarian succession would be magnified by three other major setbacks for the Middle East’s most disruptive power. Since September, Israel has decapitated and degraded Tehran’s proxy forces Hezbollah and Hamas, killing the leaders of both groups. In late October, Israel penetrated and took down Iran’s Soviet-made air defenses, and earlier that month Israel’s air defenses (deployed alongside those of the United States and others) intercepted or rendered harmless hundreds of Iranian missiles. – Dispatch from the desert: Trump’s first global test is Iran – Atlantic Council
West Africa
(The Soufan Center) Jihadist groups in the Sahel, particularly from Burkina Faso, now regularly cross into northern Ghana, using the area for logistical and medical purposes to sustain ongoing insurgencies and help expand freedom of movement throughout West Africa. Though Ghana has thus far been spared of any major terrorist attacks, there have been attacks in neighboring countries on the West African coast, including Benin and Togo. The impending withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025 sparks concern over the stability of the other states in the economic bloc, given the broad role ECOWAS plays in resolving conflicts and maintaining security, including along the coast. As Ghana gears up for its 2024 general elections on December 7, socio-political conditions could become increasingly conducive to the spread of terrorism within its borders. – Jihadist Spillover Impact and Deteriorating Security in Coastal West Africa – The Soufan Center
