From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
China
(Edward Schwarck – The Jamestown Foundation) Centralizing reforms to the Ministry of State Security probably constitute the most important development in China’s civilian intelligence system since its establishment in 1983. These reforms instituted “vertical leadership,” under which the MSS is empowered to control local bureaus’ personnel affairs, budgets, and oversight. Structural changes that began in 2016–2017 mean that local state security bureaus are no longer subject to the authority of local party committees, and so are freer to impose a security-first agenda on other government agencies, leading to a more oppressive political environment. The ministry is now better able to direct joint operations between bureaus, exploit pockets of regional expertise, and ensure that local activities serve the strategic intelligence and security requirements of the central government. The reforms are part of Xi Jinping’s broader efforts to ensure that the “party center has supreme authority over state security.” The state security system’s further empowerment suggests it is likely to remain a powerful and durable interest group in PRC politics beyond the Xi era. – The Power Vertical: Centralization in the PRC’s State Security System – Jamestown
(Sense Hofstede – The Jamestown Foundation) Xi Jinping’s ascension to the office of State President led to an outburst in diplomatic activity that lasted until the coronavirus pandemic. Breaking with Hu Jintao’s later years, Xi made more trips than his Prime Minister and engaged in a greater number of state visits before 2020. Li Qiang’s replacement of Li Keqiang as Prime Minister has led to a reversion to the prior norm of the Premier conducting the most state visits. This is likely due to Xi’s higher degree of trust in Li than in his predecessor, and possibly due to Xi’s aging. The United States was in the top two countries in terms of diplomatic engagements during Xi Jinping’s first term, but interaction cratered after Trump took office. By contrast, Europe is the most popular destination, with a particular focus on France and Germany. Russia’s diplomatic relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is uniquely intense, with annual visits every year and annual exchanges at the levels of prime minister, foreign minister, and national security advisor. Rhetorical support for Africa is not reflected in practice, despite the foreign minister’s traditional year-opening visit. Xi Jinping has made only 7 state visits to the continent, compared to 23 to Europe ex-Russia, which has also received nearly 1.5 as many visits of all kinds than its larger southern neighbor. – Diplomatic Data Signals Shifts over the Xi Era – Jamestown
China – Tibet
(Devendra Kumar – The Jamestown Foundation) The Tibet-Aid Program (TAP), a principal driver of development in Tibet, has ramped up significantly under Xi Jinping’s rule. The TAP has, throughout its 30-year history, sought to use material development to placate local tensions that have periodically arisen from the Party’s governance failings in the region. Most recently, the emphasis has been on improving the quality of healthcare and education. The TAP is a focus for the Party’s priorities, and the increasing flow of resources to “moderately prosperous” villages on the Indian border could be a cause for concern for neighboring India.Tibet remains an unattractive destination for cadres despite copious propaganda suggesting otherwise, which has helped perpetuate a relatively poor standard of governance in the region. – Tibet-Aid Program at 30: Driving Tibet’s Development in Xi’s ‘New Era’ – Jamestown
Climate Action
(World Resources Institute) At COP29, countries including UK, Uruguay, Belgium and Sweden committed to increasing the amount of global energy storage sixfold compared to 2022 levels, or 1,500 Gigawatts of capacity by 2030. The commitment comes a year after 133 countries committed at COP28 to tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling rates of energy efficiency by 2030. – STATEMENT: Multiple Countries Commit to 6x Global Energy Storage and Modernize Grid to Advance Clean Energy Economy | World Resources Institute
(Natalia Alayza, Valerie Laxton, Carolyn Neunuebel, Joe Thwaites – World Resources Institute) Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are major providers of the climate finance vulnerable nations need to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. The MDBs’ latest annual Joint Report on Climate Finance, published in September 2024, shows they delivered a record-high $125 billion of public climate finance in 2023, of which 60% ($74.7 billion) was directed to low- and middle-income countries. – How Much Climate Finance Flows from MDBs? | World Resources Institute
(Heena Samant – Vivekananda International Foundation) The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP 29) is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. Dubbed as the “finance COP”, this conference will focus on climate finance, with the aim of advancing the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The urgency for decisive action is heightened by alarming trends in global climate data. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record. Furthermore, the 2024 Emissions Gap Report revealed that global emissions are still rising, not falling as needed. The gap between climate targets and reality has widened, with current trajectories pointing to a 2.7 degrees Celsius temperature rise by 2100 unless drastic measures are taken. Global emissions hit a new high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. – COP 29: Climate Finance to Take Centre Stage at the Annual Climate Conference | Vivekananda International Foundation
(UN News) The UN environment agency chief warned the COP29 climate summit in Baku on Friday that methane emissions must come down – “and come down fast” –to have any chance of controlling global warming. – COP29: Governments, industry must stop ‘lip-service’ on methane and slash emissions, says UNEP | UN News
Gender-based Violence
(UN News) Every year, the 16 Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence (GBV) campaign led by UN Women serves as a powerful reminder of the widespread violence women and girls face worldwide. – One in three women experiences gender-based violence | UN News
Georgia
(Maximilian Hess – IISS) Election results do not presage major change to the status quo, in which Georgia’s ruling party seeks to profit economically from sanctioned Russia while cultivating new ties with populist European movements. – Have elections pushed Georgia further from Western integration?
Global Health
(UN News)The top UN health official gave a sobering reality check as the Fourth Global High-Level Ministerial Meeting on Antimicrobial Resistance began Friday in Jeddah: “AMR doesn’t just threaten to make the medicines on which we depend less effective; it’s happening now.” – Antimicrobial resistance crisis ‘happening now,’ WHO’s Tedros stresses at Jeddah summit | UN News
India – ASEAN
(Gautam Kumar Jha – Vivekananda International Foundation) Modi’s two-day visit during the second week of October to attend the 21st India-ASEAN and the 19th East Asia summits in Lao PDR on the invitation of Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone marked India’s commitment to forge stronger ties with ASEAN amid an ever-growing volatile global order. –The 21st Century: The Century of India and ASEAN – Modi’s Strategic Visit to Lao-PDR | Vivekananda International Foundation
Iran
(Michael Eisenstadt – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) With Donald Trump’s election victory, Iran faces a period of maximum danger as it confronts the likely return of U.S. “maximum pressure.” This period comes soon after a series of Israeli actions weakened Iran’s deterrent posture, including an October 26 strike that neutralized its strategic air defenses and ability to produce solid-fuel ballistic missiles, leaving it vulnerable to future attacks and unable to replenish partially spent missile stocks. In response, some Iranian officials have urged the regime to bolster deterrence by producing nuclear weapons, stoking concerns that it might soon abandon its nuclear hedging strategy. – With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb? | The Washington Institute
Latvia
(Olevs Nikers – The Jammestown Foundation) An armed Russian drone crash incident reveals in Latvia on September 7 the significant shortcomings within the Latvian comprehensive defense system. These shortcomings are related to the lack of certain military capabilities within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). They also expose critical gaps in national crisis management, alarm notification, strategic communication, and communication with the general public and municipalities. Several measures have already been implemented to strengthen Latvian air defense and border protection, while more general crisis management and strategic communication issues remain. – Russian Drone Crash Exposes Critical Weakness in Latvian Comprehensive Defense – Jamestown
Middle East
(Charles Lister – Middle East Institute) The Middle East has experienced an extraordinarily tumultuous year, as the ripples from Hamas’ assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, continue to fuel hostilities in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the waters of the Gulf. The more recent intensification of conflict in Lebanon following Israel’s devastating pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah has triggered a cycle of tit-for-tat escalation between Israel and Iran, placing the region onto a collective knife-edge. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have emerged from the tumult as an actor of considerable regional significance, having survived everything thrown their way by the United States-led military strike campaign and multiple maritime taskforces seeking (and failing) to deter their attacks, which have targeted more than 90 vessels to date, including US warships. – Assad and Hezbollah hunker down in Syria | Middle East Institute
(Security Council) On 18 November, the Security Council will convene for a briefing under “The situation in the Middle East” agenda item titled “ending the war and securing durable peace”. One of the signature events of the UK’s November Council presidency, the meeting will be chaired by UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Lammy. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. – Briefing on “Ending the War and Securing Durable Peace in the Middle East” : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Mozambique
(UN News) UN independent human rights experts on Friday called on Mozambican authorities to prevent and end ongoing violence and repression of demonstrators in the wake of contentious general elections last month. – Rights experts call for immediate end to post-election violence in Mozambique | UN News
Quad
(R. Vignesh, Abhay Kumar Singh – Manohar Parrikar Institute) On 21 September 2024, the fourth in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit was held in Wilmington, Delaware. The Quad nations unveiled various initiatives in the areas of health security, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), maritime security, infrastructure development, Critical and Emerging Technologies (CETs), clean energy, cybersecurity and people-to-people exchanges.1 The most notable among these initiatives is the announcement of the Quad-at-Sea Observer Mission in 2025. This initiative will involve the joint deployment of coast guard assets of the four nations in the Indo-Pacific maritime region. The initiative has been envisaged for strengthening the maritime policing capabilities of the Quad nations, taking into context the aggressive use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels by China for asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS). In the joint statement, the Quad nations have condemned this trend without explicitly mentioning China.2 The joint deployment of coast guards for enhancing maritime policing in the Indo-Pacific region has been under discussion among several nations for nearly a decade.3 It is likely that the Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission may serve as a precursor to greater collaboration among the coast guards of the region. – Quad-at-Sea Observer Mission: Exploring the Prospects of Coast Guard Collaboration | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia remains committed to its long-term strategic goals as it continues its war in Ukraine, including undermining US global influence, fracturing Trans-Atlantic unity, and aligning with authoritarian regimes, such as Iran and North Korea. Russia’s reliance on outdated stockpiles and unconventional resupply shows vulnerability, but its determination to sustain the war in Ukraine demands continued Western aid to Ukraine and strikes on Russian military infrastructure. If Moscow accepted a ceasefire, it would provide Russia with an opportunity to regroup, rebuild its military-industrial base, and reignite its aggression, posing a renewed threat to global security. – There Should Not Be a Ceasefire Deal with Russia – Jamestown
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have begun familiarizing the incoming US administration of Donald Trump with Moscow’s terms and conditions for a political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Kremlin has noted Trump’s eagerness for a “deal” and expects to turn that sentiment into leverage. Moscow, however, looks set to continue its ground and air offensive operations to strengthen its diplomatic hand before entering talks with Washington. Russia portrays its annexation of Ukrainian territories as irreversible and insists that the 2022 “Istanbul” draft documents and Putin’s recent list of demands remain the foundation of any political settlement of the war. – Moscow Prescribes Own Terms For Talks With Trump On Ukraine – Jamestown
(Arvind Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) In a wide ranging four hour long open and frank interaction with the participants of the Valdai Discussion Club (VDC) meeting held in Sochi on 07 Nov 2024, Putin touched upon a variety of issues ranging from the rise of new multilateralism, the prospects for expended BRICS, technology, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s relations with China, India, Japan, Europe, Africa, and Central Asian countries. – Review of the 21st Valdai Discussion Club Meeting | Vivekananda International Foundation
Sudan
(Chatham House) Khalid Omer Yousif discusses how Sudan’s broadest anti-war, pro-democracy coalition, Tagadom, aims to bring civilian voices to the fore in a war dictated by military powers, and their plans to the end of Sudan’s war despite mounting atrocities engulfing the country. – Africa Aware: Tagadom’s vision for ending the war in Sudan | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Turkiye
(IISS) In this final report produced as part of a joint project with the IISS, experts from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research outline a broad range of foreign-policy approaches that Turkiye could pursue, the impact each would have on the country’s defence industry, and which equipment areas they think the country should prioritise. – Turkiye’s Defence Industry: Which Way Forward?
Ukraine
(Andriy Zagorodnyuk – RUSI) The recent US elections have created a new political reality that will impact global stability in the coming years, including the Russian war in Ukraine. While Donald Trump’s stated goal of ending the war quickly resonates with Ukrainians, achieving a lasting peace requires selecting the right strategies and resources to ensure sustainable results. Apart from dealing with immediate challenges on the battlefield, given Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine, any solution that lacks this lasting impact risks disastrous consequences, as Russia could recover, rearm, and reignite the conflict. Defining long-term security arrangements for Ukraine requires a comprehensive set of military and strategic measures for maintaining stability and defending Ukraine’s territory, society, economy and rule of law against future foreign aggression. Such measures are widely seen as critical to Ukraine’s post-war recovery and to preventing future escalations. – Overcoming the Challenges of Building a Future Force for Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute
USA
(Willy Carlsen, Ankita Gangotra – World Resources Institute) With carbon border adjustments like in European Union taking effect and gaining traction globally, industries around the world will be expected to produce lower carbon products and reduce their emissions or pay import fees to the recipient country based on their emissions. While this trend is in its infancy, it is likely to grow as countries around the world increase efforts to mitigate climate change. The United States must leverage existing federal provisions and put in place new, innovative policies to reduce emissions from its industrial sector to secure the future of American industries and ensure their continued competitiveness in global markets. – Securing the Future of U.S. Industries with Decarbonization | World Resources Institute
(Swaminathan Gurumurthy – Vivekananda International Foundation) Trump or no Trump, the US economy seems to do what it will anyway. Why? Look at the fundamental strengths of the US as a nation. If Donald Trump’s narrow win shook the United States in 2016, the scale of his victory now has amazed the country into silence. Equally amazing is how the US market reacted to his win now as compared to 2016. And how did the economists trash him in his first term and how silent are they now. Unravelling these conundrums will bring out that the explosive pro- and anti-Trump campaigns are not just a battle between two economic or political ideas but a larger war. A war between two Americas – the America of its founding fathers and the America that breaks their statues. It calls for a deeper and at the same time a high helicopter view to demystify the forces at work in the US. – Trump 2.0: Not a change, a paradigmatic shift | Vivekananda International Foundation
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) President-elect Donald Trump announced the picks for his national security team this week. Eight years ago, he chose individuals with long records in either government service or in business. Convinced that such a conventional approach limited what he was able to accomplish in his first term, he has opted this time around to pick people whose primary qualification looks to be their loyalty to him. In doing so, he may have made it harder to achieve the foreign policy goals he has set for himself. – Transition 2025: Donald Trump Builds His National Security Team | Council on Foreign Relations
USA – China
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing has been preparing for a Trump presidency since at least the spring, assessing potential cabinet picks and their views on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Since November 5, the PRC has hyped areas in which the United States might want to cooperate, including those in which Beijing has leverage. Many see opportunities stemming from Trump’s likely approach to governing, his isolationist outlook, and his proximity to Elon Musk and other similar figures. Beijing’s calls for stability in the relationship are not made in good faith, as evidenced by efforts in state media and through covert interference and disinformation campaigns to sow confusion and distrust among the US electorate. – PRC Sees Opportunities in US Election Results – Jamestown
(Chatham House) The re-election of Donald Trump has major consequences for America’s relations with China. The panel discuss how the US-China relationship might change under the next president. Ben Bland is joined by historian and political scientist, Professor Rana Mitter, the Financial Times US–China correspondent, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Dr Yu Jie, a senior research fellow with our Asia-Pacific Programme. – Independent Thinking: How will China respond to Donald Trump 2.0? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
USA – Gulf Region
(Bader Mousa Al-Saif – Chatham House) Donald Trump returns to the White House amid a new Gulf region he helped create. Trump’s aloof response to the September 2019 attack on Saudi oilfields and facilities shattered a security doctrine predicated on US protection of energy sources and the interests of long-time partners. The US reaction – or rather, lack thereof – boosted an ongoing self-reliance drive in the Gulf. – The Gulf will seek to manage Trump through self-reliance and pragmatism | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
