From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Kazakhstan; Poland-Romania; Russia; Sudan; Syria-US; US; US-Gulf; US-Houthi
Kazakhstan
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has escalated its campaign against Russian energy targets, striking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Kropotkinskaia oil pumping station (OPS) in February. The CPC pipeline is Kazakhstan’s primary export route, handling 80 percent of its crude oil, and the strike on the Kropotkinskaia OPS and shutdowns of key moorings reduced export capacity by half. The risks to Kazakhstan’s oil exports have led Astana to intensify its search for alternative oil export routes, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, to reduce reliance on Russian infrastructure. – Kazakhstan Faces Oil Export Challenges Amid Russia’s War Against Ukraine – Jamestown
Poland – Romania
(Liana Fix, Jack Silverman – Council on Foreign Relations) The most populous Eastern European member states in the European Union—Poland and Romania—will hold presidential elections on May 18 that have implications for the state of democracy and EU solidarity with Ukraine. – Polish, Romanian Elections Test Right-Wing Populism’s Rise in Europe | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is unwittingly contributing to the rise of Islamism in Dagestan by failing to address social and economic problems and by handing over the region to siloviki who view all protest there as Islamist. The problems in Dagestan and elsewhere in the North Caucasus are so numerous and complex that the Russian government does not understand them or have the financial and other resources to address them. These failures mean the Kremlin is producing exactly what the siloviki appear to think already exists, a powerful and often violent Islamist movement that is rapidly acquiring the ability to challenge both Dagestani authorities and Moscow’s control. – Moscow Unwittingly Promoting Rise of Radical Islam in Dagestan by Not Addressing Problems – Jamestown
Sudan
(Soufan Center) As Sudan’s brutal civil war enters its third year, multiple attacks by both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) struck various locations across the country over the weekend, leaving over forty people dead, including many civilians. The weekend attacks followed six days of RSF drone attacks on the SAF-led government’s wartime capital of Port Sudan, considered the country’s humanitarian lifeline, threatening to increase dire humanitarian conditions and further disrupt aid operations. The conflict threatens to become – if it has not already reached – a proxy conflict, with the UAE reportedly sending Chinese-made advanced guided bombs to the RSF in defiance of the arms embargo. As states exploit the chaos to advance their material and geopolitical interests, the war in Sudan risks escalating significantly, with advanced weaponry leading to more deaths and a protracted conflict. – Sudan’s Brutal Civil War Threatens to Become a Proxy Conflict – The Soufan Center
Syria – US
(Gönül Tol – Middle East Institute) Two recent developments present the new Syrian government with a critical opportunity to stabilize the country. First, US President Donald Trump, during his visit to Saudi Arabia, announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria, opening the door to much-needed investment for reconstruction. Second, the Kurdish militant group Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared it would disband and dissolve itself, bringing an end to its four-decade-long insurgency. The move by the PKK will help Damascus to finalize a deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a military coalition led by a group that Turkey views as the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, and integrate it into the new Syrian national army. President Trump should build on this momentum and seize the opportunity to address one of the most complex remaining challenges facing Syria: the risk of a military confrontation between Turkey and Israel inside the country. – Trump should build on the momentum with Syria and help prevent a Turkey-Israel clash | Middle East Institute
US
(Navin Girishankar – Center for Strategic & International Studies) For businesses and consumers alike, the joint statement from Washington and Beijing offered signs of a détente in the U.S.-China trade war. Following the weekend’s Geneva talks, both sides have decided to roll back tariffs. By some estimates, average U.S. rates on Chinese goods will fall to about 40 percent, while China’s tariffs on U.S. products will drop to roughly 33 percent. It is tempting to interpret this pullback from the brink—a self-inflicted embargo—as the “total reset” President Trump claimed. But tariffs are still too high, and Groundhog Day–like market rallies should not be confused with strategic success. – From Tariffs to Tech Power: The Pivot the United States Needs Now
(Henry H. Carroll, Cynthia Cook – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Military conflict in the Indo-Pacific would demand overwhelming U.S. naval power. Yet the shipbuilding sector faces capacity shortages, industrial base constraints, cost overruns, and delayed delivery, suggesting that Washington should explore alternative pathways for delivering naval capability. One approach is to enhance cooperation with close allies such as Japan and South Korea. Options for cooperation include allied participation in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO); allied purchase and revitalization of U.S. shipyards; various methods of coproduction, including modular construction; and U.S. purchase of allied-built ships. Novel strategies that leverage the United States’ strong and unique network of allies and partners will require thoughtful implementation of industrial cooperation policy, which has historically been challenging. For the United States to strike the right balance between leaning on its allies and partners to alleviate its shipbuilding problems and investing in its own capabilities at home—for these approaches are not mutually exclusive—it should understand the implications of its various cooperative options with its allies. – Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States is one of a few dozen countries that guarantees citizenship to any individual born within its territory—a policy that has been in place since Congress ratified the Fourteenth Amendment in 1868. But efforts to end the practice have increased as critics say it encourages unauthorized migration. On President Donald Trump’s first day in office, he issued an executive order seeking to redefine the interpretation of the Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause. The legality of this order has escalated to the Supreme Court, which is slated to hear oral arguments on May 15 in a consolidated case that experts say could have implications for the rights and status of millions of people born in the United States to undocumented immigrants or those with temporary legal status. – What Is Birthright Citizenship and Could the Supreme Court End It? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) This week has been vintage Donald Trump: disruptive, transactional, and unafraid to defy convention. From a geopolitical standpoint, the US president’s trip to the Middle East could prove to be one of the most significant of his two terms in office. That depends, however, on whether Trump now follows up with a decisive move against Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Here’s how to look at this historic opportunity. – Trump can cement his Middle East successes by calling Putin’s bluff – Atlantic Council
US – Gulf
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Today, President Trump arrives on the final stop on his golf tour, the United Arab Emirates, escorted in by Emirati F-16s. The visit marks the first time a U.S. president has visited the country since 2008. Upon arrival to Abu Dhabi, he was received by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. He received a tour of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque and conducted a meeting and state dinner alongside of President Sheikh Mohammed. – President Trump’s Gulf Trip: Investment, AI, and Semiconductors in the UAE on Day Three | The Washington Institute
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) President Trump’s visit to Qatar has continued the business theme of his Gulf trip. Arriving on Wednesday from Riyadh, he promptly signed a deal with Amir Tamim for 210 new Boeing aircraft with General Electric engines for Qatar Airways. He valued the deal at $200 billion. The state-owned airline is already a major force in international aviation, using its Doha hub to fly to more than 170 international destinations. – President Trump’s Gulf Trip: Economics and Diplomacy in Qatar on Day Two | The Washington Institute
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On Wednesday, May 14, President Trump met with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh. The King of Bahrain and Emirs of Qatar and Kuwait were the only actual monarchs to attend. A development more likely related to Gulf politics and protocol than a slight to the president. More important than the substance of the meeting, of which few details have emerged, is the symbolism. The gathering was intended to represent Washington and the administration’s ongoing economic and security commitment to the Gulf. – President Trump’s Gulf Trip: Meeting the GCC on Day Two | The Washington Institute
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) President Trump has arrived in Saudi Arabia. He was welcomed by the crown prince, he had a series of meetings, he went to a number of sites. He also visited and spoke with the Saudi Investment Forum. – President Trump’s Gulf Trip: Economic Dealmaking on Day One | The Washington Institute
US – Houthi
(Middle East Institute) The sudden announcement of a US-Houthi ceasefire, brokered by Oman, has halted Washington’s air campaign in Yemen and raised urgent questions about the future of Red Sea security. What prompted the deal, and what are its implications for maritime shipping, regional alliances, and the trajectory of Yemen’s civil war? Middle East Institute explores the strategic motivations behind the ceasefire, the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and how the Houthis could leverage the pause to regroup and expand their influence across the Horn of Africa. Joining the program is Nadwa Al-Dawsari, associate fellow with the Middle East Institute, the Irregular Warfare Initiative, and the Center on Armed Groups. She speaks with MEI’s Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. – US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal & the Future of Red Sea Security | Middle East Institute
