From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia; Azerbaijan-China; Hungary; Pacific; PKK-Türkiye-Middle East; Romania; Russia; Russia-China; Sri Lanka; UK-European Union; US; US-Multilateral Diplomacy
Australia
(Astrid Young – The Strategist) Australia’s young people are being radicalised to violence more frequently, more quickly, and for increasingly complicated reasons—including the spread of misogynistic ideology. It’s time we better understand the relationship between misogyny and violent extremism, and the threat it presents to national security. Blended or hybrid radical ideologies—comprising seemingly separate beliefs—are not new in the world of violent extremism, but they are increasingly impacting younger audiences. The director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, Mike Burgess, has made clear that youth radicalisation to violence can happen more quickly than previously thought, and identified the need to counter this process as a national priority. – Australia must stop overlooking misogynistic youth extremism | The Strategist
Azerbaijan – China
(Yunis Sharifli – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) signed a series of new agreements on renewable energy cooperation, including solar and wind, reinforcing mutual goals of carbon reduction and green energy development. The PRC’s low-cost renewable technologies can help Azerbaijan affordably expand its clean energy sector, freeing up natural gas for European export and boosting national revenues while creating domestic jobs and reducing emissions. These projects align with Azerbaijan’s 2030 energy goals and ambitions to become a regional green energy hub, alongside prospects for expanding cooperation on domestic manufacturing and technical capacity. – Azerbaijan and People’s Republic of China Strengthen Renewable Energy Partnership – Jamestown
Hungary
(Péter Fazekas – The Jamestown Foundation) The Hungarian government launched a nationwide advisory referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership, while the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance launched the VOKS2025 campaign to rally the public against Kyiv’s potential accession to the European bloc. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his pro-Russian stance, uses anti-Ukrainian rhetoric as an electoral tool vis-à-vis the VOKS2025 campaign to portray Ukraine as a threat and the Hungarian opposition as “pro-war.”. Fidesz hopes to consolidate its shaken voter base, polarize voters, distract from economic failures, and regain control with this referendum ahead of a pivotal election next year. – Viktor Orbán to Use Ukraine as Most Important Campaign Issue (Again) – Jamestown
Pacific
(Pala Leka – The Interpreter) Donald Trump’s aid cuts sent a shockwave through Pacific health departments. Governments across the region have been scrambling to secure critical programs and to understand potential gaps created. Among the most important programs on the chopping block was the USAID funded HIV/AIDS programs Fiji and PNG. The timing was poor, with both Fiji and PNG in the midst of worsening and highly publicised increases in HIV infection rates. Australia’s budget changes in March offered a lifeline, a $119 million funding diversion from other global programs. But this is a band-aid fix. The reality is that core service delivery in the Pacific should not be reliant on foreign governments. The health of Pacific people – access to vaccines, maternal care, health education – should not be dependent on the interests, interventions and whims of external actors. – Pacific health systems: Breaking the aid dependency cycle | Lowy Institute
PKK – Türkiye – Middle East
(Soufan Center) The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced on Monday its dissolution after a forty-year insurgency against the Turkish state, a move Turkish officials claim was made without new negotiations — though some observers remain skeptical. Türkiye has conducted increasingly aggressive military campaigns against PKK strongholds in northern Iraq and Syria in recent years, significantly weakening its operational capabilities and isolating it from regional actors. This development may weaken Ankara’s long-held view that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was merely an extension of the PKK, paving the way for its smoother integration into Syria’s transitional government — a key step towards broader regional stabilization. A number of questions have emerged from observers about how the Turkish government plans to implement and oversee the PKK’s disbandment, especially regarding disarmament and reintegration. – Disbanded PKK Leaves Behind Questions for Türkiye and the Region – The Soufan Center
Romania
(Arnold C. Dupuy – The Jamestown Foundation) The second round of the Romanian presidential election on May 18 will be a battle for the country’s pro-Western direction. Romania’s constitutional court annulled the November 2024 election and banned ultranationalist Călin Georgescu from running in May after indications of illegal foreign interference and campaign financing violations. His replacement, George Simion, won plurality in the first round on May 4. A potential win of a president skeptical of NATO and the European Union could isolate Romania and have far-reaching implications for European and Black Sea security. – Romania’s May Presidential Election Has Far-Right Reaching Consequences – Jamestown
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian economy is stagnating as a result of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, making signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense one of the only ways to make money. Between March and April, the number of Russians willing to join the military almost doubled, and the Ministry of Defense is forcing current military personnel to sign a new contract or extend the one they already have. Russian soldiers may become mercenaries in other conflicts should Russia’s war against Ukraine end given the lack of good job prospects domestically. – Moscow Pressures Soldiers to Stay Enlisted to Sustain War Economy – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is mulling how to attract or force Russians not officially employed into the workforce in response to a growing labor shortage resulting from demographic decline, the difficulties of attracting and retaining immigrants, and the Kremlin’s military expansion. The Kremlin presents the effort to employ more Russians as primarily an anti-corruption measure because many “unofficially employed” individuals earn money in the shadow economy. Some of the measures being considered, including eliminating gender restrictions on certain jobs and equalizing the gender pay gap, will probably be welcomed, but the push as a whole is likely to be viewed as an unpopular restoration of Soviet-era labor policy. – Moscow Focusing Its Attention on Non-Working Russians to Address Labor Shortage – Jamestown
Russia – China
(Matthew Johnson – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia advanced operational bloc-building at their May 2025 summit, issuing dense agreements and three joint statements that laid out a shared strategic vision across defense, technology, law, and multilateral governance. The summit marked a shift from symbolic reaffirmation to functional coordination, particularly in sectors under U.S. scrutiny, including artificial intelligence, energy, cross-border payments, and legal standards for international order. The joint statements portrayed the PRC-Russia partnership as a normative response to U.S. hegemony, invoking World War II memory, defending sovereign development rights, and opposing Western-led institutions and coercive measures. While framed as defensive, the alignment reflects a deeper ideological and structural commitment to constructing parallel systems in trade, security, and information governance. This strategy will be tested in the months ahead, with Beijing expected to use the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits to deepen bloc architecture, promote renminbi-based financial integration, and push regional security initiatives. Underlying asymmetries, geopolitical caution, and competing interests—particularly in Central Asia and the Arctic—may constrain how far this convergence extends beyond coordinated rhetoric. – PRC and Russia Operationalize Strategic Partnership – Jamestown
Sri Lanka
(Malki Opatha – The Strategist) Starlink is great for developing countries, offering connectivity without costly infrastructure. But it’s a challenge for their national security, since authorities can’t monitor the traffic it carries. This policy conflict arose in Sri Lanka in early May, when the government paused rollout of the satellite communications service, blocking one of the few ways to ensure affordable connectivity to remote and vulnerable areas. – Sri Lanka stalls Starlink over security and sovereignty concerns | The Strategist
UK – European Union
(Olivia O’Sullivan – Chatham House) On 19 May, UK and EU leaders will hold a summit focused on resetting post-Brexit relations, covering cooperation on issues including trade, and critically, security and foreign policy. One of the summit’s most likely outcomes is a new defence and security pact, an ambition the UK’s Labour party set out in its electoral manifesto last year. The UK and EU have pursued security cooperation in recent years, particularly over Ukraine. But a new pact would mark a meaningful step forward after years of minimal structured foreign policy and security engagement since the UK left the bloc. – The UK–EU summit will bring some progress on defence cooperation. But more could be done on aid and trade | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US
(Austin Wu – The Strategist) Skill-based immigration can help the United States fill its severe shortage of shipbuilding workers, for both naval and civilian construction. Bolstering the labour pool would help the US and its allies match the Chinese maritime pacing threat and specifically benefit the AUKUS submarine program. As the US scrambles to meet AUKUS obligations to deliver Virginia-class submarines to Australia, the shortage has become a critical production bottleneck. The Naval Sea Systems Command has estimated that the US submarine industrial base needs to hire 100,000 skilled employees in the next decade to meet demand. – Shipbuilding to Citizenship: solving the US skills shortage with immigration | The Strategist
US – Multilateral Diplomacy
(Joyce Hakmeh, Marion Messmer – Chatham House) The US is steadily pulling back from multilateral diplomacy, a shift increasingly visible across key international forums. At the UN, this retreat is reflected on major issues such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and gender equality, but also in cyber diplomacy, where the US has further diluted its normative leadership – most recently by excluding Russia from lists of malign actors in cyberspace. Under the Trump administration, the US is actively pursuing bilateral rather than multilateral diplomacy to address major foreign policy challenges such as the war on Ukraine and the risk of Iran’s nuclear proliferation. – As nuclear negotiations show, US bilateral deal-making is no substitute for multilateralism | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank/
