From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Azerbaijan-Israel, Europe, India, Sahel, South Sudan, US, US-Japan
Azerbaijan – Israel
(Fuad Shahbazov – Stimson Center) Azerbaijan and Israel, which have long cultivated close ties in defense and intelligence, are strengthening cooperation in the energy field. Last October, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) acquired a 10 percent stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field as part of the company’s Mediterranean upstream strategy. The investment, SOCAR’s first direct upstream venture in the Mediterranean, signals Azerbaijan’s intent to deepen its economic and geopolitical footprint in the Middle East while reinforcing its strategic alliance with Israel. SOCAR’s expansion into the Mediterranean basin intensifies Azerbaijan’s soft power and opens the prospect of additional gas exports to southeastern Europe. SOCAR reportedly bought the stake from Union Energy, which is operated by Chevron. – Azerbaijan’s Deepening Energy Ties With Israel • Stimson Center
Europe
(Ester Sabatino, Tim Lawrenson – IISS) In December 2013 – just months before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014 – the European Council’s conclusions on defence clearly stated that ‘defence matters’ and called on European Union countries to increase capability-development cooperation, invest in the defence supply chain and reinforce the market in view of the changing international environment. Following this, the EU began to put forward initiatives aimed at strengthening the defence capabilities and industries of its members. The fact that the EU still faces the same challenges today raises questions about the effectiveness of the initiatives that were proposed by the European Council and related efforts to deliver change. – Russia a catalyst for EU defence?
(Rut Bermejo Casado – Elcano Royal Institute) Since Donald Trump took office and implemented measures to curb irregular (or, in his words, ‘illegal’) immigration, several European countries, including the UK and Germany, have introduced similar policies and rhetoric. This analysis examines to what extent these developments reflect an influence of US (anti-immigration) policies on Europe. – The trail of Trump’s (anti-)immigration policies in Europe
India
(Rahul Roy-Chaudhury – IISS) The second administration of President Donald Trump appears determined to restructure US ties with the other great powers. This presents India with new challenges in the implementation of its ‘multi-aligned’ foreign policy, which seeks to ensure the country maintains and continues to develop a diverse range of political and security partnerships short of a military alliance. However, a reset in great-power dynamics could also provide new opportunities for India’s diplomacy, namely in the form of strengthened defence and economic ties with the EU and within the Quad. – India’s diplomacy amid changing great-power dynamics
Sahel
(Emirates Policy Center) Following their withdrawal from ECOWAS, the three Central Sahel states – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – focused on consolidating their own regional bloc, formed in September 2023, to sustain regional integration benefits with neighbouring states. Security remains the most pressing challenge for these states, despite growing Russian support, including the deployment of military advisors and limited military supplies. Despite launching various initiatives and projects under their federalist approach, the Sahel states are unlikely in the near future to fully achieve their goals or offset the strategic losses from their withdrawal from ECOWAS and the termination of military and security partnerships with France and the European Union. – Emirates Policy Center | Beyond ECOWAS: The Future of the Sahel Alliance
South Sudan
(The Soufan Center) Insecurity in South Sudan has escalated in recent weeks, with renewed fighting taking place in parts of Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states following more frequent skirmishes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The government has accused Machar and his allies of collaborating with the White Army, a militia group mainly composed of the Neur ethnic group, following an attack on a military base, leading to the arrests of several of Machar’s allies. Heightening tensions threaten to upend a 2018 peace deal – a fragile power sharing arrangement between the two leaders – that ended a brutal five-year long civil war which resulted in over 400,000 casualties. The downfall of the regime, and the 2018 agreement, could have devastating consequences for the nation including the resurgence of massacres and ethnic cleansing, transforming South Sudan into a battleground for militias and illegal activities, and creating a new front for proxy conflicts in the region. – South Sudan Drawing Closer to the Brink of All-Out War – The Soufan Center
US
(Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) In an era of geopolitical competition and technological dominance, U.S. industrial policy has reemerged as a defining feature of economic strategy. In Beyond Rhetoric: The Enduring Political Appeal of U.S. Industrial Policy for Critical and Strategic Technologies, Doug Calidas and Chris Li explore the bipartisan political momentum behind industrial subsidies, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductor manufacturing, tracing its roots from the Trump administration’s economic nationalism to the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act. Despite Trump’s public criticism of subsidies, the paper argues that political and economic forces—including competition with China, shifting conservative views on state intervention, and electoral pressures—may drive a continued expansion of industrial policy in his second term. With global rivals investing heavily in state-backed technology sectors, the U.S. faces a strategic imperative: embrace industrial policy or risk falling behind. This paper provides a nuanced analysis of the forces shaping the future of American economic leadership. – Beyond Rhetoric: The Enduring Political Appeal of U.S. Industrial Policy for Critical and Strategic Technologies | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
(The Soufan Center) During its first few months in the White House, the Trump administration has taken a more aggressive, multifaceted approach to countering the threat of international drug cartels – many based in Mexico. The U.S. State Department recently designated eight international cartels and transnational criminal organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). The designations provide a new set of tools for law enforcement countering these groups; however, the implications of the FTO designation could open up an array of individuals to charges of providing material support to a terrorist organization, without necessarily having connections to cartels or drug trafficking. With more U.S. troops heading to the U.S.-Mexican border, and the seeming militarization of U.S. counternarcotics policy, there is some potential backlash that could occur, including attacks by cartels or other gangs on American soil. – The U.S. is Getting Far More Aggressive in Combating Mexican Drug Cartels – The Soufan Center
US – Japan
(Hirohito Ogi – Stimson Center) The announced plan for U.S.-Japan command and control (C2) upgrades, despite its apparent success, remains constrained by existing policy and structures. The two nations must develop a creative solution to meet operational requirements and address common security threats. – Beyond Policy Limits: Rethinking U.S.-Japan Command and Control • Stimson Center
