From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Australia, Australia-China, Australia-US, Germany, Global Economy, Global Health Security, Global Security, India, India-Sri Lanka, Pakistan-China, Ukraine, US, US-ASEAN, US-Europe, US-Russia-Ukraine
Australia
(Mercedes Page – Lowy The Interpreter) Last week, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the UN Human Rights Council, cutting funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East, and announcing a review of US engagement in the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO). The order also announced a sweeping review of all intergovernmental organisations, treaties and conventions the United States is party to. This follows Trump’s decision – one of his first acts as president — to pull the United States out of the World Health Organisation in January. – Australia can no longer assume multilateralism will work in its favour | Lowy Institute
Australia – China
(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) Highly provocative and unprofessional action by the Chinese military has again put the Albanese government’s approach to relations with Beijing under pressure. So has deployment of a powerful Chinese naval flotilla close to Australia. China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and beyond make it much harder for the government to stabilise the relationship with Beijing—under its formula of ‘cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest’. – China drops flares ahead of RAAF plane, sends ships to Australia’s northern approaches | The Strategist
Australia – US
(Robert McKinnon – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Most Australians have been astonished by the onslaught of controversial actions taken in the first weeks of President Donald Trump 2.0. Many local commentators have responded to this “flooding the zone” strategy with alarm. However, the center-left Labor government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has largely kept its own counsel, calmly restating Australian policies and avoiding critique of the new US administration. Even when this small-target approach generated sharp criticism following Trump’s unprecedented Gaza proposals, Albanese reaffirmed he was not going to “give a daily commentary” on Trump’s statements. – Australia, Trump, and Lessons for Europe | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Naoise McDonagh – Lowy The Interpreter) US President Donald Trump has claimed Australia broke a 2018 verbal agreement on restraining Australian aluminium exports to America. That deal, successfully negotiated by the Turnbull government, had provided Australia with an exemption from Trump’s global steel and aluminium import tariffs during his first term. As the United States prepares again to apply 25 per cent tariffs on both steel and aluminium imports from every country, including from Australia, the claim of a broken agreement may stand in the way of a second exemption. – Aluminium exports under fire: Is Australia really to blame? | Lowy Institute
Germany
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) Wartime Europe has forced Germany out of its comfort zone. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine put an end to illusions of a lasting peace dividend that Europe has held on to dearly since World War II. Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged this turning point three years ago in his “Zeitenwende” speech in the German parliament. – Germany’s Role in a Changing Global Order | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Global Economy
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) The rising use of economic coercion is a symptom of an increasingly unstable world that is struggling to contain rise of China and is no longer bound by the institutions established in the wake of World War II. US President Donald Trump’s scattergun threats of punitive tariffs are a continuation of this trend. The Biden administration redoubled use of export controls to slow the spread of US technology to China. The West coordinated sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including the appropriation of its foreign exchange reserves. And China has repeatedly used boycotts and regulatory punishments targeting businesses of nations that have displeased it. – Economic coercion tests international organisations | The Strategist
Global Health Security
(Nimra Javed – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO undermines global health security, jeopardising disease control efforts, climate resilience programs, and pandemic preparedness. As the world faces rising health threats, the absence of US leadership weakens international cooperation and leaves a dangerous gap in global health governance. – How Does Trump’s Withdrawal from the WHO Jeopardise Global Health Security? – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Global Security
(Munich Security Conference) The Munich Security Report 2025 analyzes the far-reaching consequences of the multipolarization of the international order. For many politicians and citizens around the globe, a more multipolar world holds significant promise. But recent trends suggest that the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing as divides between major powers grow and competition among different order models stands in the way of joint approaches to global crises and threats. The report therefore makes the case for “depolarization,” highlighting the need for substantial reforms of the international order. – Munich Security Report 2025: Multipolarization – Munich Security Conference
India
(Manish Vaid – Observer Research Foundation) As COP29 concluded in Baku, the global climate community once again faced the reality of unmet expectations. The US$300 billion pledge by 2035 was widely criticised as insufficient, particularly by India, which described the agreement as an “optical illusion”. This sentiment underscores India’s dual role: While the nation stands as a global leader in renewable energy and climate diplomacy, it also grapples with systemic challenges that hinder equitable climate action. India’s assertive stance reflects its ambition to position itself as both a torchbearer for the Global South and a pragmatic voice advocating for balanced solutions. – The climate dilemma: India’s dual path to leadership and sustainability
(Bhashyam Kasturi – Observer Research Foundation) Project Sunray, Operation Sunrise, and Operation Sundown are code names for operations associated with the Special Frontier Force (SFF), or Establishment 22 under the Cabinet Secretariat in India. The SFF is a covert operations unit that reports to the Secretary of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW). Established in November 1962, it was designed as India’s offensive covert unit against China. While the political goal at the time was to free Tibet from Chinese control, the SFF served as the covert arm. The enduring popularity of the SFF Vikasi song in the SFF reflects the original ethos and purpose for which the force was established. – Tracing the Origins of India’s Special Frontier Force
India – Sri Lanka
(N. Sathiya Moorthy – Observer Research Foundation) Amidst the strained bilateral relations between India and Sri Lanka, the fishermen’s dispute, with its human and humanitarian issues, may be more vexatious than the protracted ‘China factor’ and stalled trade discussions. This is also because the ‘human factor’ comprises two elements – one pertaining to overlapping ‘livelihood issues’ of fishermen from the two countries and the other to mid-sea incidents. In context, Indian fishermen often bear the brunt of this, mostly at the hands of the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN), which, despite a 2008 joint statement that restricts the use of open fire, continues to do so. – India-Sri Lanka ties: Fishermen, maritime security, and bilateral talks
Pakistan – China
(Adnan Aamir – Lowy The Interpreter) As the small plane approached the runway, the banners had already started to wave in celebration. The aircraft, an ATR 42-500, had just 50 seats – not the usual jumbo expected at an international airport – and was mostly carrying government officials. As it taxied to the terminal, twin spouts from a pair of waiting fire engines blasted a water salute. This was the first ever commercial aircraft to land at Pakistan’s New Gwadar International Airport, which regrettably looks likely to be a white elephant. The flight last month marked the latest development in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, a $50+ billion investment in Pakistan as part of China’s Belt and Road initiative. NGIA is situated approximately 45 kilometres from the Chinese-operated Gwadar Port and spans 4300 acres, making it the country’s largest airport by area. It was built with a $246 million Chinese grant, and can accommodate large aeroplanes such as the Airbus A380. – Flight to nowhere: The curious New Gwadar International Airport | Lowy Institute
Ukraine
(Valeriia Ivanova – German Marshall Fund of the United States) While facing one of the most significant acts of military aggression in modern history, Ukraine must not only defend itself but also rebuild its cities, critical infrastructure, and economy. However, the absence of a comprehensive reconstruction law leads to fragmentation and significant risk of corruption. Projects are addressed through ad hoc government resolutions, and this prevents strategic planning, optimal resource allocation, and coordination between central and local authorities. – A Reconstruction Law for Ukraine | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US
(Krystyna Sikora, Bret Schafer – German Marshall Fund of the United States) This report outlines an example of a foreign information operation targeting each of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia. – The State(s) of Foreign Information Operations | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US – ASEAN
(Aristyo Rizka Darmawan – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Donald Trump’s neglect of Southeast Asia, coupled with controversial foreign policy decisions like his Gaza proposal and the abolishment of USAID, is eroding US credibility and trust in the region. As ASEAN states seek alternative partnerships with middle powers and China capitalises on Washington’s missteps, America risks losing its strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific – How Trump’s Foreign Policy May Hurt US Interests in Southeast Asia – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Doris Liew – Lowy The Interpreter) Semiconductors have become a critical factor in determining the future economic edge, as innovation and the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly rely on more advanced chips. These advanced chips are made possible through an intricate and highly specialised semiconductor supply chain, which underpins the development of cutting-edge technologies. As AI continues to drive demand for increasingly powerful chips, the global competition for semiconductor leadership is only expected to intensify. – US restriction is chipping away ASEAN’s semiconductor future | Lowy Institute
US – Europe
(Jakub Janda – ASPI The Strategist) We now know the main strategist in US President Donald Trump’s administration will be Elbridge Colby, nominated as undersecretary of defense for policy. Colby is one of the most outspoken and transparent policy leaders in the Trump team, so European capitals can easily assess his worldview and likely moves. They must appreciate his perspective, which prioritises China as the United States’ main threat, and so they must do more in terms of defence. – We can predict Trump’s military policy. Here’s how Europe must react | The Strategist
(Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The Trump administration wants NATO allies in Europe to “pay their fair share” for defense, while their governments want to build strategic autonomy, boost domestic defense industries, and fend off Russian aggression—now and in the future. Can Donald Trump’s tariffs—imposed and threatened—lead the sides to reconcile these worldviews? – How Trump Could Productively Reshape the Transatlantic Defense Relationship | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US – Russia – Ukraine
(Cody Fritz – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Trump seeks to increase pressure on Putin to negotiate an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Starving his war machine of remaining oil revenues will be key. – Growing the Arsenal: Leveraging Fossil Fuels for Peace in Ukraine | German Marshall Fund of the United States
