From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
China
(East Asia Forum) China’s complex investment environment–shaped by sophisticated local competition, regulatory changes and unsuccessful market experiments–has prompted some investors to peel back or exit the Chinese market. Foreign firms will need to adapt their strategies and resources to better aligns with China’s evolving economic and institutional realities, while policymakers must consider the need to maintain international competitiveness while encouraging joint cooperation. – Foreign investors reconsider their commitment to China | East Asia Forum
(Monty Khanna – Observer Research Foundation) China is building nuclear submarines at an estimated rate of 4.5 to six per year. These are in addition to the two or three conventional submarines it has been commissioning each year. Submarines in general and nuclear boats in particular, apart from being expensive to construct and maintain, require highly trained crews to operate. It is therefore imperative for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy to invest in such capabilities to be able to exploit them to their full potential. This study endeavours to assess the submarine-training capacity of the PLA Navy and examine whether it is adequate to meet its future requirements, as the number of submarines it operates increases significantly. – Assessing the Submarine Training Capacity of the Chinese Navy
China – Bangladesh
(Rahul Pandey – Vivekananda International Foundation) The political landscape in Bangladesh underwent a dramatic transformation in August 2024 when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to step down following a wave of student protests, now known as the ‘Monsoon Revolution’. The protests, which initially began against the High Court order regarding the Quota system in the country, quickly evolved into a broader movement calling for her resignation. In the wake of Hasina’s fall, China’s diplomatic efforts were ramped up, with the PRC’s ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, taking the lead in engaging with the country’s interim leadership and political elites. – Beijing’s Strategic Engagement with Bangladesh in the Aftermath of Power Shift | Vivekananda International Foundation
Climate Action
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on Tuesday for countries to step up contributions to a financial mechanism to assist developing countries affected by climate change. – COP29: Guterres urges countries to ‘get serious’ on loss and damage funding | UN News
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday that leaders gathered in Baku for the COP29 Climate Action Summit must take immediate steps to cut emissions, safeguard people from climate chaos, and “tear down the walls to climate finance” in response to the “masterclass in climate destruction” that the world has witnessed in 2024. – ‘Pay up or humanity will pay the price’, Guterres warns at COP29 climate summit | UN News
Denmark
(Tim Searchinger, Richard Waite – World Resources Institute) Denmark’s groundbreaking new agriculture and climate policy, which taxes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production, restores nature and pays farmers to reduce nitrogen pollution, is the world’s most comprehensive national effort to address the environmental challenges of agriculture. – Denmark’s Agriculture and Climate Policy Sets Strong Example | World Resources Institute
Germany
(Armida van Rij, Patrick Schröder – Chatham House) As Europeans were still processing Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, an acrimonious break up occurred 4000 miles east of Washington DC. Reports had been circulating for weeks about the fragile state of Germany’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, consisting of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). – The break-up of Scholz’s coalition government signals the end of Germany’s old economic model | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
India
(V K Saxena – Vivekananda International Foundation) This work analyses the recent statement of the Defence Minister wherein, on 04 Oct 2024, while speaking at the 7th Annual General Meeting of the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM), the Minister stated the Govt is committed to make defence industry ‘export oriented’. – An Analytical Review of India’s Defence Exports | Vivekananda International Foundation
Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) Created after the 1979 revolution, the IRGC answers directly to the Supreme Leader. The IRGC supports militant groups in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria, and Yemen. This “axis of resistance” aims to rid the region of Western and Israeli influence. Its control over large sectors of the Iranian economy, including massive illicit gains from sanctions evasion, helps fund its myriad activities. – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards | Council on Foreign Relations
Middle East
(UN News) Dead bodies are lying in the streets of besieged northern Gaza while hospitals run out of blood packs – a situation that’s “nothing short of catastrophic”, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said on Tuesday. – Gaza: ‘People losing hope’ as aid access is refused to north, warns UNRWA | UN News
Myanmar – ASEAN
(Premesha Saha – Observer Research Foundation) Over three years since the February 2021 coup in Myanmar, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has made little progress in helping resolve the crisis despite releasing a ‘Five-Point Consensus’ (5PC) in April 2021. The political crisis that followed the coup poses a challenge for the ASEAN, which must now deliberate on ensuring not only the early implementation of the 5PC but also whether, and how, it should continue to abide by its principles of non-interference in members’ internal affairs and consensus-based decision-making. This paper analyses the ASEAN’s role in the Myanmar situation and outlines options for the way forward for the grouping to effectively deal with the crisis. – Finding an End to the Myanmar Crisis: ASEAN’s Massive Task
Nigeria
(UN News) Three UN agencies appealed on Tuesday for lifesaving support in Nigeria, where record inflation, climate shocks and ongoing conflicts are projected to push the number of food insecure people to 33 million in 2025. – Nigeria: 33 million could face hunger next year | UN News
Philippines
(UN News) After enduring 12 typhoons this year, including two back-to-back storms in less than a month, communities across the Philippines are bracing for more extreme weather. – The Philippines brace for more storms amid devastating typhoon season | UN News
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is relying more heavily on local ethnic militias made up of immigrants to ensure order in Russian cities as the war in Ukraine continues and more Russians are sent to the front. Moscow is allowing Bishkek to play a role in supervising Kyrgyz militias in Russian cities, raising the specter that Kyrgyzstan rather than Russia will control them, which could threaten Russian police control over these areas. Moscow’s intention to improve Russian control may have exactly the opposite effect and spark more conflict between ethnic militias and the increasingly active Russian nationalist militias and police. – Moscow Hopes Bishkek Can Help Control Kyrgyz Migrant Workers in Russia – Jamestown
Russia – USA
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission, but this approach may falter if Trump prioritizes ending the war without affirming Russia’s perceived victory. Trump’s potential reduction of support for Ukraine and focus on China as a primary adversary may alter Russia’s role and strategic alliances, especially concerning China and Europe. – Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections – Jamestown
South Korea
(Peter Banseok Kwon – East Asia Forum) South Korea, once reliant on US military aid, has become a significant global defence market player. This has largely been attributed to its rapid production capabilities, successful marketing strategies and high-quality, affordable weapons. But the manufacturing hub Changwon city has long been at the heart of this industry. Modernisation challenges, increasing global competition and a skilled worker shortage threaten the city’s economy. The city requires revitalisation to maintain its competitiveness and meet the government’s goal of becoming a top four arms exporter by 2027. – South Korea’s military manufacturing hub needs revitalisation | East Asia Forum
Sudan
(UN News) The people of Sudan face an ever-deepening crisis as the relentless war between rival militaries pushes the country further into chaos, the UN’s top political affairs official told the Security Council on Tuesday, underscoring that a ceasefire and a negotiated political solution remain the only viable path to peace. – Sudan: Allies of warring generals ‘enabling the slaughter,’ Security Council hears | UN News
UK
(World Resources Institute) The United Kingdom has announced it will cut its greenhouse gas emissions 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels as part of its national climate commitment under the Paris Agreement. This is consistent with the UK’s Climate Change Committee’s advice and the UK’s national Climate Act to reach net zero emissions by 2050. – STATEMENT: UK Releases Ambitious 2035 NDC, Putting Country on Path to Net Zero | World Resources Institute
(Matthew Savill – RUSI) The announcement on 8 November that Jonathan Powell had been appointed as the new National Security Adviser (NSA) to the UK prime minister resolved a question that had been left hanging ever since it emerged that the Starmer government had decided not to implement the decision made under Rishi Sunak to appoint General Gwyn Jenkins (then the Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff) to the role. But in making what looks like a political appointment, the government is inviting interesting new questions around both its security policy and how the NSA functions. – Starmer’s New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice | Royal United Services Institute
UK – AUKUS
(Sophia Gaston – ASPI The Strategist) The AUKUS review that Sir Stephen Lovegrove will deliver to the British government this month represents a vital opportunity to consolidate the project’s successes and turn a clean page on the areas of dysfunction and inertia that have dogged the project’s first three years. Sir Stephen has been tasked with assessing British progress with AUKUS, identifying obstacles and advising on further opportunities for the Australian-UK-US defence technology partnership. – Seven things for Britain’s AUKUS review to fix | The Strategist
Ukraine
(UN News) With Ukraine approaching 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, civilians are facing mounting challenges as intense attacks continue and winter tightens its grip, according to UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). – 1,000 days of full-scale war on Ukraine: UNHCR urges solidarity with victims | UN News
USA
(World Resources Institute) At COP29, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a new rule that requires oil and gas producers to pay a fee for releasing excess methane emissions. The methane fee, mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act, requires violators to pay $900 per metric ton of excess methane emissions that are above the government threshold rolling up to $1,500 per metric ton starting in 2026. – STATEMENT: U.S. Methane Fee Holds Oil and Gas Producers Accountable for Pollution | World Resources Institute
USA – Middle East
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On November 7, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with David Horovitz, Barcin Yinanc, and Nadim Koteich, moderated by Robert Satloff. Horovitz is founding editor of the Times of Israel and former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post and Jerusalem Report. Yinanc, an editor at the Turkish news site T24, formerly held senior editorial posts at Hurriyet Daily News and CNN Turk. Koteich is general manager of Sky News Arabia and host of the program Tonight with Nadim. Satloff is the Institute’s Segal Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks. – U.S. Election 2024: Views from the Middle East | The Washington Institute
(Nimrod Goren, Khaled Elgindy, Alex Vatanka, Ibrahim Al-Assil, Gönül Tol, Marvin G. Weinbaum – Middle East Institute) Israeli government celebrates Trump’s victory amid its concerns about Biden’s final policy moves – Palestinians fear incoming Trump administration will not stop ethnic cleansing in Gaza and annexation in the West Bank – Tehran mulls reengagement with US – Gulf leaders balance desire for long-term stability with expectation of uncertainty under Trump – Turkey’s Erdoğan forgets past, extends welcome to Trump – Pakistan and Afghanistan looking at bright side of Trump victory. – Special Briefing: The Middle East reacts to Donald Trump’s reelection | Middle East Institute
(The Soufan Group) Donald Trump will return to the U.S. presidency in January 2025, facing a Middle East divided between U.S. partners on the one side and Iran and its constellation of armed, non-state allies on the other. Leading players in the multiple conflicts raging in the region are assessing how Trump’s return affects their prospects in settlement negotiations. Trump will try to rely on his close relations with leaders of the Arab Gulf states to de-escalate and stabilize the region. Regional leaders reject the Trump administration’s unconditional support for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his opposition to an independent Palestinian state. – Regional Conflagration Will Confront Next Trump Administration – The Soufan Center
USA – Russia – Ukraine
(John Lough – Chatham House) The nervousness of Ukrainian leadership is understandable. Since Donald Trump’s re-election, Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost no time in preparing the ground for a direct discussion between the US and Russia about the terms for peace in Ukraine – although reports at the weekend that Trump has recently spoken to Putin by phone were swiftly denied by the Kremlin. – Can Trump do a deal with Putin on Ukraine? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Yemen
(Security Council Report) Tomorrow morning (13 November), the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the 2140 Yemen sanctions regime—comprising targeted financial and travel ban measures—for another year, until 15 November 2025. (The targeted arms embargo on the Houthi rebel group established through resolution 2216 in April 2015 is open-ended.) The draft text also extends the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) supporting the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee until 15 December 2025. – Yemen: Vote on a Draft Resolution Renewing the Sanctions Regime and Closed Consultations : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
