From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Bangladesh, China, France-Philippines, India-Japan, Japan, Mercosur-European Union, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Syria, Türkiye-Syria, Terrorism
Bangladesh
(Manohar Parrikar Institute) After the removal of Bangladesh’s elected President, Sheikh Hasina, the country’s ambitious nuclear energy plan is facing a crisis. The current leaders and officials in Bangladesh appear to have brought the nuclear energy project under scrutiny. A special team from the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) of Bangladesh recently issued a statement expressing concerns about potential corruption in the nuclear deal between Bangladesh and Russia. – The Future of the Bangladesh Nuclear Programme – MP-IDSA
China
(Tianlei Huang, Nicolas Véron – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The share of the private sector among China’s largest listed companies declined continuously for three years, from 55 percent in mid-2021 to 33 percent in mid-2024. In the second half of 2024, however, PIIE’s half-yearly tracker for this metric showed a slight uptick, with the private sector’s share rising to 34 percent by the end of December. – China’s share of companies in private sector saw small uptick in second half of 2024 after years of decline | PIIE
France – Philippines
(Céline Pajon, Jose Renan Suarez – IFRI) France and the Philippines are two Indo-Pacific maritime nations, or “blue nations”. France has the second largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 90% of which is in the Indo-Pacific, while the Philippines, an archipelago strategically located at the barycenter of this vast region, has 36,000 km of coastline, ranking sixth in the world. Both nations hold key positions in terms of coral biodiversity, with the Philippines ranking third and France fourth. Moreover, they are crucial players in the fisheries sector, presenting them with shared opportunities and challenges in managing marine resources and maintaining maritime security. – The Case for Enhanced France-Philippines Maritime Cooperation | Ifri
India – Japan
(Manohar Parrikar Institute) India and Japan signed a Memorandum of Implementation (MOI) on 15 November 2024 for the co-development of Unified Complex Radio Antenna (UNICORN) masts.1 This innovative technology is for fitment on-board Indian Navy ships. While Japan will provide advanced design expertise, India will focus on integration and co-production. The agreement symbolises the deepening of the defence ties between India and Japan. – India–Japan Agreement on UNICORN Masts: A Key Milestone in Defence Cooperation – MP-IDSA
Japan
(Manohar Parrikar Institute) Japan entered into 2024 with the tragic New Year’s Day earthquake in the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture. The year’s end, meanwhile, sees Japan led by a weakened prime minister standing at the head of a minority government derived from a hasty and ill-planned electoral transition. Japan also has to contend with domestic turbulence in key regional countries such as the Republic of Korea as well as in its staunch security ally, the United States. – Japan’s Diplomacy in 2024: An Assessment – MP-IDSA
Mercosur – European Union
(Gonzalo Escribano – Royal Institute Elcano) Pending its ratification and implementation, the closing of the Mercosur-EU trade agreement offers great economic opportunities. Its potential extends to the energy sphere, including the opening up of the raw materials’ markets, necessary for energy transition, and biofuels. The EU-Mercosur agreement can also yield greater bi-regional integration of renewable energies and decarbonised industrial value chains. The agreement incorporates strict socio-environmental sustainability criteria and considers the Paris Agreement an essential element. At the same time, the Mercosur countries obtain a rebalancing mechanism that protects them from measures such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In addition, the EU will support Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay’s green and digital transitions with €1.8 billion via the Global Gateway. Overall, the agreement provides an open competitive decarbonisation model that tends to balance the climate, energy and industrial values and interests of the parties. – The Mercosur-EU agreement as a model for open decarbonisation – Elcano Royal Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Olena Snigyr – Foreign Policy Research Institute) Discussions of possible ceasefire negotiations in the war between Russia and Ukraine focus on the concessions that Ukraine could make to stop the hot phase of the war. At the same time, a realistic assessment of the prospects for a truce or peace should be based primarily on an analysis of Russian policy and the goals that Russia wants to achieve through the war with Ukraine. The conditions for negotiations and a truce, which Russia imposes on the West, suggest that a lasting peace is not currently achievable. Restoring the security of the Euro-Atlantic area requires a revision of the Western strategy towards Russia and taking measures that will deprive the Russian authorities of the resources to wage this war. – A Deal with Russia at Ukraine’s Expense Will Not Bring Peace – Foreign Policy Research Institute
Syria
(Manohar Parrikar Institute) Notwithstanding the apparent break-up between Al-Zawahiri’s Al-Qaeda and Al-Jolani’s HTS in 2017, the new Syrian regime seems to be implementing Zawahiri’s revamped jihadist strategy, which has taken almost two decades to evolve. The HTS regime has many foreign jihadists in its ranks, which could potentially initiate unrest in Central Asian states as well as threaten the moderate monarchies of Jordan, Egypt and the GCC. – Al-Qaeda 2.0 in Syria: Extreme Makeover of Salafi Jihadism – MP-IDSA
Türkiye – Syria
(Manohar Parrikar Institute) Following the overthrow of Assad’s regime in Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in December 2024, Türkiye has been strategically positioning itself as a key player in Syria’s reconstruction and political stabilisation efforts, thereby enhancing its regional influence in West Asia. – Türkiye’s Evolving Engagement with Syria – MP-IDSA
Terrorism
(Colin P. Clarke – Foreign Policy Research Institute) Sitting down to write my annual assessment on trends in terrorism in early 2025, I am struggling more than usual, fresh off the horrors of an Islamic State (ISIS)-inspired terrorist attack in New Orleans that killed fourteen people and injured dozens more. It is always a challenge to look beyond the immediate, to take a step back and weigh myriad factors and variables that impact which trends may accelerate and which may disappear. – Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2025? – Foreign Policy Research Institute