From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : ASEAN, Canada, European Union, Indonesia, Japan-USA, Middle East, Myanmar, Myanmar-European Union-USA, NATO-Indo Pacific, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Vietnam
ASEAN
(Renard Siew – East Asia Forum) The November 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference advanced the framework for global carbon markets under the Paris Agreement. Whether ASEAN will succeed as a key player in the decarbonisation agenda depends on its ability to address core governance challenges, including limited access to infrastructure, technical expertise and upfront capital. ASEAN members must also find ways to reconcile their differences in carbon pricing policies and attitudes towards market-based solutions to realise the bloc’s potential for climate action. – COP29 affirms cooperation is key to ASEAN’s carbon markets | East Asia Forum
Canada
(IRIS) Le Premier ministre du Canada, Justin Trudeau, a annoncé ce 6 janvier qu’il allait quitter le pouvoir et son poste qu’il exerçait depuis l’automne 2015. Cette décision intervient alors que le président élu des États-Unis, Donald Trump, multiplie les provocations et les menaces économiques à l’égard du pays. Alors que le Canada, traditionnellement allié indéfectible de Washington, se trouve confronté à ces tensions inédites, cette annonce le plonge dans une période d’incertitude, tant sur le plan intérieur qu’international. Comment expliquer la décision de Justin Trudeau ? Quel a été l’impact des déclarations de Donald Trump ? Quelles sont les perspectives d’avenir pour le Canada ? Les réponses de Romuald Sciora, chercheur associé à l’IRIS et directeur l’Observatoire politique et géostratégique des États-Unis de l’IRIS. – Départ de Justin Trudeau : quelles perspectives pour le Canada ? | IRIS
European Union
(IRIS) La Pologne a succédé à la Hongrie à la tête de la présidence du Conseil de l’Union européenne ce 1er janvier, pour une durée de six mois. Ce mandat intervient alors que la guerre en Ukraine et la menace russe perdurent, et que le retour de Donald Trump à la Maison-Blanche plonge l’Europe dans l’incertitude. Varsovie, qui renoue avec Bruxelles depuis l’arrivée au pouvoir de Donald Tusk, entend donc faire de cette présidence une opportunité pour faire valoir ses positions sur ces sujets à l’échelle du continent, notamment en matière de défense et de sécurité. Quels seront les grands axes de la présidence polonaise du Conseil de l’UE ? Comment ses relations avec Bruxelles ont-elles évolué depuis la crise de 2021 ? La Pologne est-elle en mesure d’impulser un véritable leadership sur le continent ? Les réponses de Louise Souverbie, chercheuse à l’IRIS, spécialisée sur les questions de défense européenne et sur l’industrie de l’armement. – Présidence polonaise du Conseil de l’Union européenne : quelles implications pour la défense de l’Europe ? | IRIS
Indonesia
(Krisna Gupta, Arianto A Patunru, Paul Gretton – East Asia Forum) The Indonesian government’s Omnibus Law on Job Creation, introduced to simplify regulations and boost foreign investment, conflicts with its Import Substitution Strategy (ISS) aimed at reducing imports to regain external balance. The tension between these policies points to uncertainties in the country’s investment climate, with potential benefits from the Omnibus Law potentially eroded by the implementation of ISS, raising concerns about the pace and effectiveness of reform. – Indonesia’s economic strategy is at odds with itself | East Asia Forum
Japan – USA
(Shizuka Takada – East Asia Forum) Japan’s foreign policy faces significant ambiguity due to the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump and other political shifts, with concerns raised about US allegiance to its allies and Japan’s deteriorating regional security environment. New Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed intentions to elevate relations with the United States, while also exploring alternative global alliances. Despite Japan increased defence spending and creation of stronger ties with the United States and regional partners, Japan must be vigilant of the declining security environment and US unpredictability as an alliance partner. – Japan must remain vigilant as Trump 2.0 looms | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Syria: The HTS-led Syrian interim government announced that it thwarted an attempted ISIS attack on a prominent Shia shrine outside Damascus. – Syria: The HTS-led Syrian interim government hosted a senior Lebanese delegation to discuss border security, counter-smuggling efforts, and immigration. – Iraq: The Iraqi Army and PMF launched an operation targeting ISIS in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq. – Iran Update, January 11, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Danny Citrinowicz – INSS) In a predictable and unsurprising manner, even after Israel’s air force strike, the Houthis’ firing toward Israel hasn’t ceased. The Houthis have continued to launch both missiles and UAVs toward Israeli territory, vowing to persist until Israel ends its campaign in Gaza against Hamas. – The Campaign Against the Houthis – A Status Update | INSS
(Arman Mahmoudian – Stimson Center) The planned withdrawal of American forces from central Iraq offers Iran and its Iraqi affiliates a strategic opportunity to consolidate their influence and compensate for the loss of Syria – Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Weakened But Still Dangerous • Stimson Center
(Stimson Center) Historic examples in countries such as Portugal and Greece show how military defeats can catalyze democratic transitions by exposing the incompetence of authoritarian regimes. – Reform is Happening in Iran and Assad’s Fall Could Accelerate It • Stimson Center
Myanmar
(Hunter Marston – East Asia Forum) The State Administration Council in Myanmar has continued its campaign of bombings to maintain power in the face of nationwide resistance and Western sanctions. Despite their perceived ineffectiveness, sanctions have not been entirely unsuccessful, raising the reputational costs for those doing business with the military and prompting some policy shifts. But a more comprehensive diplomatic strategy is needed to bring the conflict in Myanmar to a halt. – Sanctions are just one part of the puzzle to stopping Myanmar’s military | East Asia Forum
Myanmar – European Union – USA
(Htet Hlaing Win – East Asia Forum) US President-elect Donald Trump has signalled that his administration may pull the United States back from its role as the primary advocate for Myanmar. The European Union has the opportunity to take on this responsibility, increasing its existing efforts of sanctions and humanitarian aid. By working with Myanmar’s neighbours to protect its refugees and advocating for it in bodies like the United Nations, the European Union could promote democracy in Myanmar and maintain its resistance to authoritarianism. – The European Union should prepare to fill Myanmar’s Trump vacuum | East Asia Forum
NATO – Indo Pacific
(Stephen Nagy – East Asia Forum) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed the interconnected nature of modern conflicts, highlighting the need for stronger defence cooperation between NATO and the Indo–Pacific Four (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand). Faced with limited resources and the potential for simultaneous crises, these allies must enhance their preparedness through inclusive partnerships, coordinated munitions production and burden-sharing frameworks. By strengthening ties and aligning strategies, NATO and the Indo–Pacific Four can address emerging threats and ensure global stability. – How NATO can strengthen its ties with the Indo–Pacific | East Asia Forum
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast. – North Korean forces are reportedly deploying large assault groups to combat operations despite frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, which is likely contributing to North Korea’s high casualty rates and will likely affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in the war. – Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO and reportedly aims to enforce these demands in any possible talks with Western leaders about ending the war in Ukraine. – Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone strike against an oil refinery in the Republic of Tatarstan on January 11, but details of the possible strike remain unclear at this time. – Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Vietnam
(Nicholas Chapman – East Asia Forum) The Vietnamese National Assembly has approved the creation of a high-speed rail network that will deliver significant economic benefits to the country. Rather than rely on foreign funding, Vietnam intends to largely fund the project through domestic sources, including governments bonds and low-interest loans. Doubts over the feasibility of this autonomous strategy raise questions about the appropriate balance between foreign reliance and economic security. – Vietnam’s high-speed rail hits the brakes on foreign funding | East Asia Forum
