Fears of a new mobilization wave following Russia’s September 18–20 State Duma elections have not materialized, but the Kremlin has introduced new taxes and raised utility prices.
Declining contract recruitment, heavy battlefield losses, and expanding military registration infrastructure have fueled concerns about another mobilization wave. A formal call-up remains unlikely, but tighter conscription enforcement and regional mobilization drills suggest preparations for expanded recruitment.
The Kremlin is likely to rely on contract recruitment rather than risk another politically damaging mobilization. Regional quotas incentivize authorities to pressure vulnerable Russians into military service, allowing Moscow to replenish its forces while obscuring responsibility for and the widespread existence of forced enlistment.
by Alyssa Dowling/Jamestown Foundation – Russians’ Post-Election Fears Partially Materialize
