As Erdogan Considers a Third Term, Türkiye Approaches an Inflection Point

(The Soufan Center) Last week, Turkish courts ousted Özgür Özel from the chairmanship of Türkiye’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), igniting protests across the country. Özel’s ousting is increasingly seen as a deliberate effort by the government to weaken the CHP and create political space to maneuver a third term for current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Despite staggering inflation rates and an overvalued currency that has made Erdogan unpopular among voters, he has raised Türkiye’s international profile through an ambitious foreign policy agenda and his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, which could serve as leverage in the forthcoming elections. The risk — albeit limited given the continued persecution of the CHP — of Erdogan losing snap elections, combined with his age and reportedly declining health, means that the question of succession is not a matter of if, but when, and the international community should prepare for what a post-Erdogan Türkiye may look like. – As Erdogan Considers a Third Term, Türkiye Approaches an Inflection Point – The Soufan Center