The U.S. is Setting its Sights on Cuba

(The Soufan Center) In the last month alone, several U.S. officials have altered their rhetoric about their strategy in Cuba, shifting from backchannel discussions and encouragement of private sector-friendly economic reforms to explicit warnings about U.S. intelligence presence in Cuba and coded threats about a potential military intervention, suggesting the U.S.’ next foreign policy focus will be on Cuba following the Iran war. If the U.S. opts to undertake surgical strikes and a joint forcible entry operation to apprehend a central governmental figure like former President Raúl Castro, the Cuban military is likely to be outmatched by U.S. operational capabilities, though there remain serious political risks associated with intervention. Whether the U.S. intervenes in Cuba or not, the dire economic landscape creates a greater potential for instability, a worsened humanitarian crisis, and mass migration from the island. Recent statements and engagements made by the Trump administration and other officials point to a primarily intelligence-driven U.S. strategy towards its Latin American neighbors, following reported CIA operations in Mexico as well as surveillance that supported the Maduro ouster in Venezuela. – The U.S. is Setting its Sights on Cuba – The Soufan Center