Strategic stability and nuclear risks in the Asia-Pacific

(Daniel Salisbury – IISS) Six nuclear-weapons states are either located in the Asia-Pacific or have nuclear forces deployed there. Several of these are modernising or growing their arsenals. This reflects broader modernisation trends worldwide, but runs counter to the 25-year trend of reductions since the end of the Cold War. China’s arsenal has undergone the most significant growth. According to American assessments, China has almost tripled its warhead stockpile from the ‘low 200s’ to over 600, and will increase its arsenal almost fivefold and have ‘over 1,000 warheads by 2030’. This Chinese modernisation concerns the United States, with the US Stratcom Commander having noted that it will soon face a ‘two peer’ challenge for the first time. The expiry of the New START Treaty in February 2026 has ended the limits on US- and Russian-deployed warheads and delivery systems. While the US government pursues a new era of trilateral arms control, it is unclear whether Washington and Moscow will increase their deployment of nuclear weapons. Other smaller nuclear powers in the region, such as India, Pakistan and North Korea – according to open-source assessments – are also growing their arsenals on a smaller scale. Growing arsenals, qualitative developments, renewed arms-racing dynamics, expanding conventional counterstrike capabilities and the prominence of dual-capable systems all mean rising nuclear risks in the Asia-Pacific. – Strategic stability and nuclear risks in the Asia-Pacific