China
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is focused on deepening influence in its neighborhood. As this year’s APEC host, it sees an opportunity to drive its regional agenda through multilateral institutions. General Secretary Xi Jinping, informed by Party theorists, is promoting “Asian values” to advance PRC discourse power. This understanding of “Asian values” is explicitly anti-Western, pro-authoritarian, and sees the Party’s interests as synonymous with those of the entire region. Leader’s speeches, authoritative policy documents, and other official publications constantly link success in achieving the Party’s regional ambitions with expanding Beijing’s power globally. – Beijing Revives Asian Values in Regional Push – Jamestown
(Youlun Nie – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ministry of Public Security’s draft Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law marks a seminal shift from reactive policing to preventive governance, codifying a regulatory system designed to eliminate all remaining digital gray zones. By outlawing privacy-enhancing tools based on function rather than intent, enforcing real-name registration down to the network infrastructure layer, and nationalizing the discovery of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the legislation effectively eradicates technical anonymity and centralizes state control over critical zero-day resources. The draft leverages administrative power through exorbitant fines and extrajudicial detention, enabling public security bureaus (PSBs) to bypass the formal justice system and impose crippling penalties on ordinary netizens, technical facilitators, and private enterprises. Projecting control globally, the legislation formalizes border controls and authorizes the freezing of assets linked to “fake information,” providing a robust domestic legal foundation for transnational repression against foreign entities, international personnel, and the Chinese diaspora. – New PRC Cybercrime Law Heralds Digital Iron Curtain – Jamestown
(Yu-cheng Chen, Yang Shang-wei – The Jamestown Foundation) In late December 2025, the PLA Eastern Theater Command launched the Taiwan-focused joint exercise “Justice Mission-2025.” Officially released training items included “blockade and control of key ports and areas” and “outer-line three-dimensional deterrence,” while Chinese reporting suggested the presence of a Type 075 amphibious assault ship—making the platform a key entry point for assessing the PLA’s evolving outer-line intervention-denial concept. Rather than implying that aircraft carriers will disappear from Taiwan contingencies, the forward positioning of a Type 075 task group in this exercise suggests the PLA is experimenting with alternative large combat platforms for “outer-line” employment. The Type 075’s activity pattern also suggests a “far-seas mission first, Taiwan exercise second” logic—consistent with PLA emphasis on using one deployment for multiple objectives, while highlighting the growing centrality of ASW capacity to any future attempt to contain Taiwan and deter external forces. – The Type 075’s Operational Integration in Justice Mission-2025 – Jamestown
(Eric Y.H. Lai – The Jamestown Foundation) From the mainland’s persepctive, Jimmy Lai’s sentencing marked a significant moment for Hong Kong’s security, as shown by the timing of the new White Paper’s release. Past publications have aligned with legislation that tightened the mainland’s grip over the Special Administrative Region (SAR). The new White Paper celebrates the Hong Kong government’s use of polical, legislative, and educational initiatives to advance national security, and outlines new areas of focus, such as economic and international issues. This signals the possibility of mainland-style sanctions and renewed transnational repression efforts in the future. Beijing now recasts past Hong Kong political mobilizations as national security threats, even including those that were seen as legal under the Basic Law at the time, providing justification for its hardline turn. – White Paper Increases Securitization of Hong Kong – Jamestown
(Benn Steil – Council on Foreign Relations) Back in 2014, The Economist declared that “the globalisation of the [Chinese RMB] seems remorseless and unstoppable.” Notwithstanding hurdles in tracking remorse, we begged to differ—and were right. A dozen years on, however, and RMB internationalization is showing renewed signs of life. The IMF’s recent annual staff report on China’s economy identified several metrics along which the RMB’s use in trade and finance has been rising modestly. These include the share of trade invoicing settled in RMB, offshore RMB lending, and issuance of “panda bonds”—RMB-denominated bonds issued in China by foreign entities. – How Cross-Border Chinese RMB Flows May Weaken U.S. Sanctions | Council on Foreign Relations
Europe
(Matthias Matthijs – Council on Foreign Relations) The speed and scale of last weekend’s U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran took most European governments by surprise. After leaving Europe in the dark about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the United States launched a major military operation in the Middle East with little to no consultation with its allies in Europe, while expecting to use their bases and receive their broad support. Once again, European leaders found themselves scrambling to react to a conflict they had neither anticipated nor prepared for—and one in which they had little direct leverage. The result has been a strikingly disjointed European response. – Europe’s Disjointed Response to the War With Iran | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran and beyond
(Michael Singh – The Washington Institute) While the United States and Israel are winning based on measures like the degradation of Iran’s naval force and missiles, a broader victory will require securing domestic support and avoiding the maximalism that has hindered past American military efforts. – Assessing U.S. Progress in the Iran War | The Washington Institute
(The Washington Institute) Washington Institute experts explain what U.S. officials and military planners should be on the lookout for as great power competitors and close allies outside the region consider their responses to the crisis. – Great Power Spillover from the Iran War: Implications for China, Russia, Turkey, and Europe | The Washington Institute
(Jonathan M. Winer – Middle East Institute) When the United States and Israel launched their joint military operations against Iran, analysts swiftly turned to examining the tactical surprise of the strikes, the decapitation of the senior leadership, the succession dynamics now unfolding in Tehran, and the evolving posture of Iranian proxies across the region. The decision to initiate this phase of conflict will be debated for years to come. For now, the more immediate task is to assess the intelligence judgments shaping what happens next, and how those judgments interact with allied positioning, diplomatic activity, and economic constraints. Senior administration officials briefed congressional leaders prior to the February 28 strikes and later conducted classified briefings for members of Congress in early March. The briefings took place ahead of largely party-line votes in the Senate and House this week that rejected restrictions on the president’s actions under the War Powers Act. The sessions examined intelligence assessments that informed the Executive Branch’s decision to strike. Equally important, however, are forward-looking assessments that will guide escalation thresholds, alliance management, regional stability, and conflict termination. The scale and duration of this conflict will depend heavily on judgments about Iranian military sustainability, regime cohesion, escalation dynamics, regional spillover, allied responses, and plausible end states. – Intelligence questions as the war with Iran enters a more uncertain phase – Middle East Institute
(Joseph Majkut, Kevin Book, Adi Imsirovic, Sarah Emerson, Raad Alkadiri, Leslie Palti-Guzman, and Ben Cahill – CSIS) The sudden eruption of war in the Mideast Gulf has created dramatic new risks for global energy security. Iranian attacks have damaged oil and gas facilities in the Gulf region, and threats against shipping though the Strait of Hormuz have brought maritime traffic to a near standstill, halting oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. As the crisis continues, announcements of closing production fields and LNG export facilities are beginning to mount. On Friday, March 6, international Brent oil prices surpassed $92 per barrel, up 28 percent since last Friday’s market close. Prolonged disruptions to shipping and/or significant damage to export facilities could cause lasting and larger price increases. This week, President Donald Trump announced several measures to reduce potential energy price shocks. He said that the United States would guarantee shipping through the strait using both naval escorts and insurance products backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and that it would loosen energy sanctions on Russian oil imports into India. – What Does the Iran War Mean for Global Energy Markets?
(Harrison Prétat, Monica Sato, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Matthew P. Funaiole – CSIS) Since the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran a week ago, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a virtual standstill. The resulting trade disruptions will be felt globally, but China’s outsized reliance on energy imports from the region and its position as one of Iran’s few remaining international partners makes its response to the crisis especially consequential. Despite Beijing’s calls to keep the strait open to international trade, ship-tracking data shows that Chinese tanker and container ships have all but ceased transits since the conflict began, leaving dozens of Chinese ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. This data underscores China’s limited ability to shape the course of the conflict, even to protect its own strategic and commercial interests. – No One, Not Even Beijing, Is Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) What’s that famous line of Michael Corleone’s in The Godfather Part III about the mafia? “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”. That’s the Middle East. President Barack Obama sought to pivot to Asia from Iraq and Afghanistan (not Europe, as our insecure transatlantic allies feared). President Donald Trump recently announced that the Western Hemisphere is our top priority. But the Middle East always seems to have something else in mind. The war in Iran has been well underway for a week. Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of the regime’s leadership are dead, more than two thousand targets have been struck across the country, and per U.S. Central Command, the U.S. military has “struck or sunk” more than thirty Iranian ships. Iran has retaliated in full force, unlike its token attack against U.S. forces in Qatar after Operation Midnight Hammer, striking military, civilian, and infrastructure targets in eleven countries so far. – What’s Next for the War in Iran? | Council on Foreign Relations
(The Soufan Center) Disrupted energy markets due to continued hostilities are the most immediate economic challenge, with global reverberations, as the Strait of Hormuz is essentially unnavigable and crude oil prices continue to rise. Europe is highly dependent on energy imports from the Gulf after weaning itself off Russian energy after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seeing gas prices rise 60 percent since the onset of Operation Epic Fury. The increased gas and oil prices have led to widespread concern of an inflation shock and have cast a shadow over any near-term interest rate cuts. The Gulf states’ relative stability and security in the region have made it the hub for a host of sectors — from aviation to financial —that are now under pressure and will remain so if it is unable to restore stability. – The Economic Fallout of the War with Iran – The Soufan Center
(Ingrid Small and Nate Swanson – Atlantic Council) While it’s unclear who will lead Iran after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the succession process will likely remain in Iranian hands; the US has only limited levers to influence it. Whoever it is, the next leader will need to decide between pragmatic engagement with the world and continued ideological confrontation. To coax Iran’s leadership toward the former, the US and its allies should highlight Iran’s needs for post-conflict economic recovery and political and security reforms that are tolerable to regional powers. – Washington’s limited levers to shape a post-Khamenei Iran – Atlantic Council
(Henri J. Barkey – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States has reportedly begun reaching out to leaders of Iran’s Kurdish minority population to potentially support an uprising against the besieged Iranian regime. The contacts, including a widely reported call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iraqi Kurdish leaders last weekend, appeared to signal U.S. support for training Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq to take up arms against the regime—though this has not been confirmed. But Iran’s Kurds, who represent a sizable minority in the country’s northwest, have much less experience participating in armed actions than Kurdish groups based in Iraq and Syria, and it is unclear how much support they might receive from these other groups. To assess the potential role that Iran’s Kurds could play in the country, CFR spoke with Middle East expert Henri Barkey, who has long tracked the status of the Kurds in the region. – Can the Kurds Challenge the Iranian Regime? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) “I’d be all for it.” That’s what US President Donald Trump said Thursday when asked about the prospect of an offensive by Kurds in Iran, with reports swirling that the United States and Israel are arming the ethnic minority group in an effort to put further pressure on the Iranian regime. The idea of armed Kurdish groups entering the war launched last weekend by the United States and Israel raises all sorts of questions. – How would a Kurdish offensive change the war in Iran? – Atlantic Council
US
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) So much for original intent. Congress had the opportunity to this week to demand that President Donald Trump get its authorization for what he has called “major combat operations” against Iran. Rather than fulfilling the Framer’s vision that only Congress can authorize the initiation of the use of military force, both the House and Senate effectively gave the president a green light to proceed. – Congress Declines to Demand a Say in the Iran War | Council on Foreign Relations
(Mark Linscott – Atlantic Council) The Trump administration negotiated a record number of trade deals over the past year, including eight agreements on reciprocal trade and ten related framework deals. The Supreme Court’s recent ruling that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act removes what was powerful leverage to make these deals. The administration is now shifting to investigations under Section 301 to maintain pressure, but if it does so unpredictably, then countries could abandon agreements, reimpose barriers, or retaliate. – How the White House’s plan B on tariffs can give it all the trade leverage it needs – Atlantic Council
