Iran and beyond
(RFE RL) US president says war on Iran could last for four weeks — “until all our objectives are achieved.”. Trump cautions there could be more US casualties after three soldiers killed in action. Iran continues to retaliate with missile launches hitting multiple countries, including Israel, in the region. – Trump Vows To Punish Iran, But Leaves Door Open For Further Talks
(Kian Sharifi and Golnaz Esfandiari – RFE RL) Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s spiritual leader and highest authority who led the country for almost four decades, was killed during US and Israeli air strikes on February 28 at the age of 86. Praised by his supporters as a wise leader and denounced by his critics as a dictator, Khamenei will be remembered as a monumental figure of the Islamic Revolution who rode a reputation for piety and fierce devotion to the cause to his ascendancy as supreme leader. – Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Killed
(Steve Gutterman – RFE RL) Attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran and the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will likely have little effect on the battlefield in Ukraine, but it may make Russian President Vladimir Putin “even more adamant that he has to come out on top” in the full-scale war he launched four years ago, Hanna Notte, an expert on Russian-Iran ties, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Notte, a Berlin-based analyst who is director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, among other roles, spoke to RFE/RL on March 1. – Hanna Notte: US-Israeli Attack On Iran ‘Will Only Harden Russia’s Position On Ukraine’
(RFE RL) Following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Israel has continued to pound sites in Iran on the second day of a massive joint attack by Tel Aviv and Washington on the Islamic republic.
Tehran has launched retaliatory strikes at targets in many countries in the Middle East where the US has military bases.
US President Donald Trump said that 48 Iranian leaders have been killed in the attacks and that the strikes could take four weeks.
Three US service members were killed in action and five others seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command announced on March 1.
Dozens of oil tankers have stopped moving in the waters of the Persian Gulf, according to reports. – Trump: We Will Continue at ‘Full Force’ Until Mission Completed
(RFE RL) The death of Iran’s supreme leader — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sent shock waves across the Middle East. Now the question has turned to who will replace him. The rubble of the Tehran building where Khamenei and other top Iranian officials were killed continued to smolder on March 1, a day after an Israeli air strike flattened the structure. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s supreme leader has played a singular role in the country’s stewardship, also serving as head of state. A vacuum at the top risks destabilizing the entire regime. Iran’s leadership is now scrambling to ensure the power structures that govern the country remain functional, a process that includes quickly finding a successor to Khamenei. That man — who will become the country’s third supreme leader — will take the helm at a time when US officials have openly called for toppling the theocratic government that has ruled the country since 1979. – Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Dead. Who Will Succeed Him? It’s Complicated.
(Ray Furlong – RFE RL) Cellphone footage showing tongues of flame and thick, black smoke billowing from a ship in the Strait of Hormuz is an ominous image underlining fears of disruption to global oil supplies amid the US and Israeli conflict with Iran. The straits are a vital global trade route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Skylight, a 7,600-ton oil and chemical tanker, was just north of the Omani port of Khassab, near to the narrowest point of the strait where the shipping lane is just 3 kilometers wide. It was one of three civilian ships reportedly hit in the region on March 1 — while US Central Command said it had struck an Iranian navy corvette nearby. – Attacks On Shipping Raise Fears For Global Oil Supplies Amid Iran Conflict
(Niaz Ali Khan – RFE RL) At least nine protesters have been killed and 32 injured in clashes after hundreds of Pakistan’s pro-Iran Shi’a Muslims, angry over the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stormed the US Consulate in the port city of Karachi. The Imamia Students Organization (ISO), the student wing of Shi’a political and religious groups, advanced on the consulate on March 1, a day after Khamenei died in US and Israeli air strikes. The protesters smashed windows and doors at the consulate in an attempt to take over the building. They breached the perimeter, but not the actual building, as Pakistani security forces responded, resulting in the deaths of nine protesters, rescue officials told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal. – At Least 9 Dead In Clashes Outside US Consulate In Karachi During Demonstration Over Khamenei’s Death
(Barak Ravid, Marc Caputo – Axios) The U.S. and Israel originally planned to attack Iran a week earlier than they did, but the opening strike was delayed for operational and intelligence reasons, according to senior U.S. and Israeli officials. Why it matters: The delay gave President Trump another week to choose between the two parallel tracks — diplomacy and war — he had been walking for nearly two months. – U.S. and Israel delayed original Iran strike by a week, officials say
(Barak Ravid – Axios) Hezbollah fired several missiles from Lebanon towards Israel on Sunday, two days after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the Tehran-backed militant group and the IDF said. Why it matters: This would expand the current conflict to another country in the region and threatens to seriously destabilize Lebanon. – Hezbollah launches missiles at Israel from Lebanon after Iran strikes by US, IDF
(Ben Geman – Axios) Crude oil prices soared to their highest level in slightly over a year in early trading in Asian markets Sunday night. Why it matters: The surge from the Asia markets’ opening is an early concrete sign that prices at the pump could go up because of supply disruptions from the strikes against Iran. The surge is likely to push up U.S. gasoline prices, though the impact will depend on the evolving market response as well as the scope and duration of the conflict. – Iran conflict spurs early oil price surge
(Rebecca Falconer – Axios) U.S. counterterrorism and intelligence teams are on high alert and law enforcement in major cities has bolstered security in the wake of this weekend’s strikes on Iran. The big picture: FBI director Kash Patel instructed federal counterterrorism and intelligence to “mobilize all assisting security assets needed” after placing them on high alert Saturday, per a post to X, while law enforcement in D.C., New York City and Los Angeles are among those to take additional steps. The announcements come amid reports that a gunman in an early Sunday mass shooting that the FBI is investigating in Austin, Texas, wore a shirt with an Iranian flag design. – US cities step up security amid Iran tensions
(Barak Ravid – Axios) President Trump presented on Sunday his case for going to war with Iran and toppling the current regime — and warned more U.S. soldiers will likely die before the operation ends. Why it matters: Trump is publicly bracing the country for a sustained, costly military campaign, a sign America has entered an open-ended war with a rising human cost. Trump touted the elimination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and framed the war as the only way to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed terrorist state. – Trump: More US troops will “likely” die in Iran attacks
(Ben Geman – Axios) A coalition of OPEC, Russia and allied oil-producing nations agreed Sunday to boost output by a larger-than-expected amount in a move that could help offset any shortfall from Iran amid this weekend’s strikes. Why it matters: The OPEC+ boost of 206,000 barrels per day is an early sign of how producers and companies will respond to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran as the world ponders the effect on oil prices. Producers and companies also are anxiously watching the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iranian attacks damage oil infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries. – Oil prices fallout: OPEC producers boost output after Iran strikes
(Nicole Cobler – Axios) The gunman in an early Sunday mass shooting in Austin wore a sweatshirt that said “Property of Allah” and another shirt with an Iranian flag design, a law enforcement official told AP. The FBI is investigating the shooting in a downtown bar district as a potential act of terrorism. – FBI investigating Austin mass shooting as potential terrorism – Axios Austin
South Sudan
(UN News) Travelling more than 200 kilometres (124 miles) from Yambio, the capital of Western Equatoria State in southwestern South Sudan, a team of justice experts escorted by United Nations peacekeepers moved slowly along rough, dusty roads, determined to reach communities that have waited years for their day in court. Its mission: to prepare for the deployment of a mobile court expected to begin next month. This initiative can’t come soon enough for victims of crime who have long believed that accountability is out of reach. Since 2018, South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, continues to face deep instability and violence despite a peace agreement meant to end years of civil war. Armed clashes between government forces, opposition groups, and local militias continue to displace thousands, worsening an already dire humanitarian situation. – Justice on the move: Mobile courts offer hope for communities in South Sudan | UN News
US
(Holly Otterbein – Axios) Moderate Democrats are on a mission to stop the next Bernie Sanders, starting with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Third Way, an influential center-left group, is bringing together hundreds of elected officials, party leaders and operatives here this weekend to build a case for nominating a middle-of-the-road Democrat — not a liberal — for president in 2028. Why it matters: Centrist Democrats’ efforts to shape the next election have taken on a new urgency as liberals such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others have unexpectedly won races. – Centrist Dems launch ’28 mission: Stop AOC
(Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein – Axios) For many far-left Democrats, it’s AOC or bust in 2028. Left-wing Democrats are quietly escalating efforts to persuade New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president. One big reason: They see no clear alternative. Bernie Sanders (84) is too old — and no other Sanders-like pol with national punch is emerging. – It’s AOC or bust for far-left Democrats in 2028
