Assadist Insurgency Efforts: Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. Assadist officials’ claims that three prominent former Assad officials command nearly 100,000 dormant insurgent fighters in and near coastal Syria are almost certainly an exaggeration.
Alawite-Syrian Government Relations: Many Alawites in Syria continue to hold grievances toward the Syrian transitional government that malicious actors may seek to exploit, but the vast majority of the Alawite community does not appear inclined to use violence to address these grievances. The Syrian government has additionally taken steps in recent months to build stronger relationships with some Alawite communities along the coast.
Iran Update, December 5, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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