Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: A Shia Coordination Framework member suggested on November 13 that the framework could exclude Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani’s coalition from government formation, even though Sudani’s coalition likely won a plurality of seats in the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections. The Shia Coordination Framework’s reported interest in excluding Sudani from government formation reflects Sudani’s ongoing rivalry with certain Shia Coordination Framework parties. The number of seats that Sudani’s coalition ultimately receives will impact how easily the Shia Coordination Framework can exclude him in government formation.
Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: The Shia Coordination Framework appears to be considering how to involve Iraqi Shia nationalist cleric Muqtada al Sadr in government formation, likely to reduce opportunities for Sadr to destabilize the government formation process and the next Iraqi government. Sadr has periodically mobilized his predominantly Shia Iraqi base, including during the government formation process following the 2021 elections. Shia Coordination Framework parties may possibly attempt to acquire Sadr’s tacit cooperation in government formation by offering his movement positions and/or resources in the next government.
Syria in the Global Coalition: The Islamic State is attempting to exploit the Syrian transitional government’s decision to join the US-led Global Coalition Against ISIS to discredit the government among Sunni hardliners and drive recruitment. Islamic State propaganda is likely aimed at hardline and foreign Salafi-jihadist elements within the Syrian government that may oppose Shara’s partnership with the coalition and remain susceptible to recruitment.
Iran Update, November 13, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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