From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia-Pacific Islands, China-Taiwan, Georgia-China, Libya, Middle East, NATO, Russia-Arctic, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, US
Australia – Pacific Islands
(Nicholas Weising – The Strategist) One of the first aims of the United States’ new Department of Government Efficiency was shutting down USAID. By 6 February, the agency was functionally dissolved, its seal missing from its Washington headquarters. Amid the sudden shutdown, Australia must increase its developmental aid to Pacific islands before China fills in. The most aid-dependent countries—the Freely Associated States, including Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia—happen to be among the most strategically located for US resistance to possible Chinese aggression against Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines. Maintaining aid to them is doubly important. – Australia can take USAID’s place in the Pacific islands | The Strategist
China – Taiwan
(Philip Shetler-Jones – RUSI) ‘Grey zone’ as a qualifier for challenges, threats and even warfare describes an approach that seeks results from action below the threshold of war or armed conflict. Attempts to frame a precise definition raise theoretical and practical questions. Can action ‘below the threshold’ of war be a form of ‘warfare’, or is the threshold subjective and open to manipulation? Can grey zone action be deterred without threatening to cross the line into a state of war? How can the victim of aggression escape a trap where moves to deter grey zone challenges attract condemnation for ‘provocation’ or ‘escalation’ that might be more damaging than the original attack? China’s ‘campaign against Taiwan’, which Sir Alex Younger, former Chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, described as ‘a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment’, presents a compelling case study for understanding the grey zone phenomenon. While Taiwan’s situation is distinctive in some ways, the grey zone pressures it faces – including incidents such as sabotage of undersea infrastructure, election interference and digitalised disinformation – closely parallel those faced by other countries in Europe and Asia. – Taiwan’s Evolving Response to China’s Grey Zone Actions | Royal United Services Institute
Georgia – China
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Dream has shifted from an initially anti-People’s Republic of China (PRC) stance to embracing the PRC’s development model, formalizing ties through a strategic partnership signed in 2023. Bilateral trade and PRC investment have surged in Georgia, including a free trade agreement, infrastructure projects, and a spike in PRC company registrations and tourism. Pro-PRC sentiment is being pushed in Georgia through pro-government media, social networks, educational initiatives, and partnerships with ultra-right and pro-Russian groups. Georgian institutions are purchasing PRC surveillance technology, which has raised cybersecurity concerns as some of the technology is subject to regulation by the PRC’s National Intelligence Law. Tbilisi is pushing Washington and Brussels aside to achieve success in Beijing and other authoritarian regimes, ensuring power and stability at home. – Georgian Dream and the People’s Republic of China Pursue Strategic Relationship – Jamestown
Libya
(The Soufan Center) Trump’s national security team is seeking to blunt Russian influence in the Mediterranean and in Africa by engaging eastern Libya warlord Khalifa Haftar, despite his well-documented human rights abuses. Russia’s steady expansion of forces in Haftar-controlled territory positions Moscow to help anti-Western military governments in Africa. Trump officials conducted a show of force in Libya in February to try to weaken Haftar’s ties to the Kremlin. Haftar’s opponents fear he will use aid from both Washington and Moscow to try to consolidate control over the whole country. – Libya Emerges as an Arena for U.S.-Russia Competition – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(Zizette Darkazally – Chatham House) On 18 March, Israel shattered the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza with a renewed military assault. The ceasefire had enabled a vital break in the conflict, allowing desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter the Strip. Over 190 Israelis and foreign nationals, held captive since 7 October 2023, had also been released during the pause in fighting – alongside thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody. The resumption of the war has already claimed hundreds of Palestinian lives with high numbers of women and children among the dead and wounded. Politically, Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) find themselves in a complex situation with no return to negotiations in sight. Israel’s offensive has been denounced by Arab, European and other governments, and by many Israelis, although it has been supported by the US. Families of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza accuse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of sacrificing their loved ones for his political survival. They are supported by Israelis concerned for the state of their democracy as the prime minister attempts to oust senior officials and drive through changes to the judicial system. – Arab states must adapt their Gaza peace plan and persuade Washington to engage with it | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
NATO
(Angus Lapsley, Pierre Vandier – Atlantic Council) The NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) is little known outside defense ministries. But today this process is driving the most consequential shift in European and Canadian defense in the last two generations. The planning cycle, which comes to a head this summer, involves allies adopting capability targets that will shape national defense policies for the next two decades. If allies succeed in focusing their investments and policies to pursue this challenge, it will strengthen NATO’s ability to shield its members, even if Russia and other authoritarian states continue to challenge the Alliance. So what has changed and why does it matter? – Why NATO’s Defence Planning Process will transform the Alliance for decades to come – Atlantic Council
Russia – Arctic
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea. Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to rekindle strategic dialogue with the United States, offering Arctic cooperation despite Russia’s deteriorating infrastructure and ecological risks. The sustained concentration of Russian economic and human resources on waging its war against Ukraine has been detrimental to its Arctic development plans. – Putin’s Warpath Goes Through Arctic – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Richard Haass – The Strategist) The war between Russia and Ukraine continues unabated. Neither side is in a position to achieve its stated objectives through military force. But now there is significant diplomatic activity as well. Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, in large part to patch up relations with US President Donald Trump’s administration, which unravelled during a 28 February Oval Office confrontation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia rejected the ceasefire proposal, instead suggesting (but not implementing) a prohibition on attacking energy infrastructure. Both sides also indicated a readiness to accept a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but with Russia linking its support to a relaxation of sanctions, it is far from clear when—or even if—such a limited ceasefire would start, much less what it would encompass. – Diplomacy is the newest front in the Russia-Ukraine war | The Strategist
US
(Edoardo Campanella, John Haigh – The Strategist) Although semiconductor chips are ubiquitous nowadays, their production is concentrated in just a few countries, and this has left the US economy and military highly vulnerable at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. While the United States commands a leading position in designing and providing the software for the high-end chips used in AI technologies, production of the chips themselves occurs elsewhere. To head off the risk of catastrophic supply disruptions, the US needs a coherent strategy that embraces all nodes of the semiconductor industry. – The US has many chip vulnerabilities | The Strategist
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) It was just another head-spinning, history-bending, vertigo-inducing week in US President Donald Trump’s Washington. The nonstop use of the word “unprecedented” is justified, but it fails to capture the gravity of what’s happening. As one Trump ally put it to me this past week, the president’s critics have underestimated his determination to deliver on what he has called “a revolution of common sense,” one that will upend everything from transatlantic relations and the future of the Middle East to US foreign assistance and executive authority. “The genie is out of the bottle,” a senior official from a NATO country told me this past week. He shared that a growing list of European allies are seeking self-sufficiency, concluding that, after eighty years, the era of reliable US security in Europe following World War II is irrevocably over. I disagreed with the finality of that observation, as NATO remains in place alongside its cornerstone Article 5, obligating all allied nations to come to the assistance of an attacked member. Greater European defense spending, I argued, is one of the more positive outcomes of the Trump administration’s first weeks. Yet there’s not a conversation I have with European officials these days in which they aren’t asking fundamental questions: Do they now need their own nuclear weapons? Do they need to expand trade relations with China? Can they defend Ukraine from Russia? Can they help allied Denmark keep control of its autonomous territory of Greenland? – ‘What you’re witnessing is a revolution.’ Making sense of Trump’s head-spinning moves. – Atlantic Council
(Shannon K. O’Neil – Council on Foreign Relations) Trump’s upcoming tariff barrage is supposed to reduce trade deficits by cutting out imports. Forgotten amid all the administration’s threats and justifications is the other side of the trade equation. More exports not only reduce deficits but also bring broader economic benefits through higher-paying jobs and greater innovation. Yet in a world of global supply chains, boosting exports means upping imports as well. Widespread tariff hikes will also hold back US-based exporters. The US is not a big trader. Just a fourth of its economy comes from international exchanges, far behind other OECD countries, in which trade averages closer to two-thirds of total economic output. And unlike in most other nations, trade’s importance in the US economy has been falling in recent years. – Tariffs Will Destroy the Best Cure for the Trade Deficit | Council on Foreign Relations
