From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa-Russia, ASEAN-Malaysia, Australia, Australia-Indo Pacific, Indonesia, Malaysia-Palestinian Refugees, Myanmar, Sub-Saharan Africa, US, US-Japan, Global Strategies
Africa – Russia
(Oleksandr Merezhko, Greg Mills – RUSI)
South Africa’s apartheid-era ‘Bantustans’ exemplified state-sponsored pseudo-independence. Today, history risks repeating itself in Russia’s occupied Ukrainian territories, though this irony seems lost on some African politicians. – Why Africa Should Dismiss Moscow’s Bantustans | Royal United Services Institute
ASEAN – Malaysia
(Sharon Seah – FULCRUM)
Former Fox News host turned presidential nominee for US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s inability to name any ASEAN country in his Senate confirmation hearing was concerning but frankly, not surprising. General awareness about Southeast Asia — compared to Northeast Asia — in Washington DC is low. More significantly, given the strength of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) narrative under Trump 2.0, the ASEAN Chair’s job just got a lot harder. This is the same for Cambodia, which is Coordinator of ASEAN-US dialogue relations. Securing a Summit with incoming President Trump or anybody from the new Administration is going to be a tall order — but perhaps it is better for ASEAN to fly under Washington’s radar for now. – Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Facing Treacherous Geopolitical Headwinds | FULCRUM
Australia
(Meg Tapia – ASPI The Strategist)
The Australian government’s regulatory approach to tackling disinformation misses the mark by focusing on content moderation and controlling access to platforms. This focus on symptoms is like fighting a flood by mopping the floor: it feels like you’re dealing with the immediate problem, but it ignores the root cause. The government should instead treat disinformation like organised crime and focus on dismantling networks. – To fight disinformation, treat it as organised crime | The Strategist
Australia – Indo Pacific
(Nishank Motwani – ASPI The Strategist)
The return of Donald Trump could demote diplomacy as he pursues hard power and economic statecraft. Diplomacy may be more about damage control than prioritising the long game and the art of exercising constructive leadership. Trump has already fixated on the ideas of buying Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal and is musing that Canada should join the United States as the 51st state. This reflects his style of using coercive diplomacy with maximalist positions to manipulate others’ cost-benefit calculus in his favour. Trump can also rally strong domestic support, showcasing his resolve to punish those he believes are responsible for exploiting US interests and generosity. – Diplomacy first: Australia’s diplomatic push in a contested Indo-Pacific | The Strategist
Indonesia
(Haula Noor, Nur Syafiqah Mohd Taufek – FULCRUM)
The community of religious preaching in Indonesia has come under scrutiny amid concerns about the disconnect between the actions of some preachers and the moral values they advocate. In particular, one regrettable incident in December 2024 involving Gus Miftah (Miftah Maulana Habiburahman) brought these issues to the forefront. On 22 October 2024, President Prabowo Subianto had appointed Miftah as a special envoy for religious harmony. However, Gus Miftah’s disrespect toward an elderly tea seller, Sunhaji, sparked a fierce backlash that forced Miftah’s resignation days later. The preacher’s failure to uphold Islam’s core values, such as humility, compassion, and respect, deeply offended public sensibilities. The incident raised more concerns about the credibility of some preachers and their ability to live by the values they preach. – The Controversy of Indonesia’s Gus Miftah: A Public Backlash | FULCRUM
(Hilman Palaon, Robert Walker – Lowy The Interpreter)
As the Indonesian province of Southeast Sulawesi transitions into an industrial hub, driven by the burgeoning nickel industry, the region faces a dilemma. Will local communities benefit from this mineral wealth, or will they be left behind? Indonesia has doubled down on downstreaming – the processing of raw nickel locally – but now it must deliver on development needs to stay competitive and keep communities on side. – Indonesia: The downstreaming dilemma | Lowy Institute
Malaysia – Palestinian Refugees
(Benjamin Y.H. Loh, Aslam Abd Jalil, FULCRUM)
In early October, a video circulated on social media showing several Palestinians in Malaysia making a scene at a federal holding facility, yelling at local authorities and breaking furniture. A more egregious incident occurred in early January 2025 at the same facility, with some Palestinians breaking more furniture and starting a bonfire to protest the slow processing of their return to Egypt. – Conditional Support for Palestinian ‘Refugees’ in Malaysia | FULCRUM
Myanmar
(Su Mon Thazin Aung – FULCRUM)
In Myanmar, paying bribes has become a reality ingrained in people’s daily lives. The assumption that these ‘unofficial contributions’ are necessary for obtaining any service, whether administrative permissions or essential public services, has grown so commonplace that it is no longer viewed as illegal but rather as a survival tactic. Pervasive corrupt practices in Myanmar occur not simply because of weak institutions and administrative incapabilities. Experts researching corruption in autocracies have identified such practices as a purposeful tactic that authorities use to consolidate power, secure loyalty, and suppress dissent. – Myanmar’s Silent Disease: How Everyday Bribery Fuels Autocratic Control | FULCRUM
(Ye Myo Hein – United States Institute of Peace)
Myanmar’s post-coup conflict has now stretched into its fourth year, with no resolution in sight. Far from subsiding, the conflict has escalated dramatically. Last year was particularly devastating for the Myanmar military, marking its worst losses in history. The fall of key military strongholds in Lashio and Ann stands as the most significant events but is only part of a broader pattern of losses; 91 towns and 167 military battalions have been lost, signaling a crisis of unprecedented scale for the regime. – Myanmar’s Escalating Crisis: A Year in Review and the Road Ahead | United States Institute of Peace
Sub-Saharan Africa
(Djenabou Cisse – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique)
Sub-Saharan Africa has faced significant challenges, crises, and transformations in recent years. In West Africa, the region has grappled with a growing terrorist threat since the onset of the Malian crisis in 2012, as well as a wave of coups since 2020, raising concerns among observers about broader democratic backsliding. Central Africa and the Horn of Africa remain plagued by numerous armed conflicts (Sudan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia), resulting in severe humanitarian crises. These challenges are further compounded by demographic pressure and the accelerating impact of climate change, which threatens the security and stability of already fragile areas. – Threats in sub-Saharan Africa by 2040 – A prospective analysis :: Note de la FRS :: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique :: FRS
US
(Jenny Gordon – Lowy The Interpreter)
Incoming US President Donald Trump has asked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswarmy to establish a “Department of Government Efficiency” – to be known by the acronym DOGE – to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure Federal Agencies.” Musk is already back-tracking on just how much DOGE will reduce government spending, having halved his claim from US$2 trillion to $1 trillion. Many doubt the capacity to deliver even these savings, but there is a deeper question about what big cuts to public services and deregulation will mean for US productivity in the future. – Is DOGE the answer to improving productivity? | Lowy Institute
US – Japan
(Anthony P D’Costa – East Asia Forum) The US$15 billion Nippon Steel bid for US Steel has sparked political opposition despite steel’s diminished economic role. While both presidential candidates cite national security and job protection, history shows protectionist policies rarely save jobs or maintain competitiveness. A more effective approach would embrace strategic foreign investment while developing comprehensive industrial policies for long-term sustainability. – Domestic politics not security or economics sabotage US Steel’s Japan deal | East Asia Forum
Global Strategies
(Wilson Center)
As the Dalai Lama often says, “Choose to be optimistic. It feels better.”. As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marks its third anniversary, conflict in the Middle East seemingly takes new turns every day, and the level of forced human displacement is breaking all records, much of the public’s attention is focused on some of the daunting challenges we face on the world stage. But there are also many reasons to be hopeful—and optimistic. 2024 was certainly a consequential year, and 2025 is becoming just as important. As new and returning governments take shape after 2024’s “year of elections,” there will be many opportunities to uncover new ideas, forge new partnerships, and create new solutions. – Rays of Optimism | Bright Spots in Foreign Policy | Wilson Center
(East Asia Forum)
Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency poses a major threat to the achievements of post-Cold War globalisation and multilateral political cooperation. But given the continued prevalence of democratic governance and the depth of global economic integration, there are still robust aspects of the liberal order to defend. Middle powers have a crucial role to play in keeping the world open and prosperous with the hope that political dynamics in the world’s largest economy may one day shift back towards multilateral cooperation. – Liberal internationalism may live to see another day | East Asia Forum
(Nicholas Khoo – Lowy The Interpreter)
Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January is an appropriate time to reflect on the current state of international politics. One word immediately springs to mind – instability. It wasn’t supposed to turn out this way. At the outset of the post-Cold War era in 1991, a bipartisan Democratic and Republican Party consensus underpinned the US-led liberal international order, holding out the promise of a new era based on greater levels of free trade and liberal democratic-based peace. – What would the founders of the US-led liberal international order think? | Lowy Institute
